Posted in energy, energy policy, natural gas, tagged EIA, Energy Outlook 2023, natural gas production, oil production on March 17, 2023| Leave a Comment »
Yesterday, Lars Herbst attended the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook presentation. The slides are attached.
Below is a custom chart from the EIA data tables. While EIA predicts growth in renewable generating capacity, US oil and gas production are nonetheless projected to increase slightly through 2050.
Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 5 year leasing plan, BOEM, EIA, Gulf of Mexico oil production, OCSLA, production forecasts on January 17, 2023| Leave a Comment »
As is evident from the first table below, the EIA’s new short-term production forecast for the Gulf of Mexico differs significantly from the optimistic BOEM forecast.
The EIA 2022 figure is spot-on, as it should be given that 10 months of 2022 production data are now in hand. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast (published in July) missed the mark considerably. (In fairness to BOEM staff, their work was probably completed months before publication pending internal reviews.)
Of greater concern, given the policy implications, is the rosy BOEM forecast for the out-years. Despite historically low levels of leasing and exploratory drilling, BOEM forecasts oil production to exceed 2 million BOPD through 2027 and to remain well above the current (2022) level through 2031 (second table below).
As previously noted, the authors of the proposed 5 year OCS leasing plan have used the BOEM forecasts to justify a skeleton leasing plan that is unprecedented in program history. Contrary to the OCS Lands Act’s mandate and EIA projections regarding future oil and gas consumption, the proposed leasing plan not so subtly announces the intention to phase out the offshore oil and gas program.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| EIA | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| BOEM | 1.892 | 2.000 | 2.013 |
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged EIA, Gulf of Mexico production, July oil production on September 30, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Posted in energy, natural gas, tagged EIA, record natural gas consumption on September 15, 2022| Leave a Comment »
In our September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect natural gas consumption to increase by 3.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the United States during 2022 to average 86.6 Bcf/d for the year, the most annual U.S. natural gas consumption on record. We forecast that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase in all end-use sectors this year. We expect the U.S. electric power sector to grow by 4% in 2022 to 32.1 Bcf/d, exceeding the 2020 record by 1%, which is the highest growth rate among all sectors.
EIA
Posted in climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 5 year leasing plan, BOEM forecast, EIA, Gulf of Mexico production on September 1, 2022| Leave a Comment »
GoM oil production for June increased (see chart below) with King’s Quay and Spruance contributing to the uptick. Other anticipated 2022 startups are not yet producing.
The EIA production forecast for 2022 is proving to be pretty accurate. Kudos to them. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast of 1.9 million bopd is not achievable and concerns about the intermediate and longer term persist. Unfortunately, BOEM’s highly optimistic forecast for 2022 and beyond, along with unrealistic expectations regarding the energy transition, have significant policy implications. This stunning quote from the 5 year leasing plan explains why so few lease sales were proposed:
“BOEM’s short-term (20-year) production forecast for existing leases shows steady growth from 2022 through 2024 and declining thereafter (see Section 5.2.1). The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.“
5 Year Leasing Program, p.3
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged EIA, Gulf of Mexico production, production decline on July 29, 2022| Leave a Comment »
If last fall’s Hurricane Ida dip is excluded, the latest production figure in 2021/2022. New projects should boost production over the next 2 years, but not enough to reach the August 2019 peak of 2.044 million bopd.
Meanwhile the GoM rig count remains sluggish at 15.
Posted in climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 2022 production forecast, 5 year leasing plan, BOEM, EIA, Gulf of Mexico oil production, King's Quay on July 7, 2022| Leave a Comment »
April production increased from March by 72,000 BOPD to 1.763 million BOPD. The increase is associated, at least in part, with Murphy’s King’s Quay field which began producing in early April. 2022 GoM production remains below the levels reached in the first 7 months (pre-Hurricane Ida) of 2021, and is well below BOEM’s forecasted 2022 production rate of 1892 MBOPD. Perhaps BOEM was assuming earlier startup dates for other projects that will begin production later this year or next year. The 2022 YTD dip in production points to the importance of sustained exploration and development.
BOEM’s short-term production forecast is considerably more optimistic than EIA’s. This optimistic forecast, along with unrealistic expectations regarding the “energy transition” are reasons for proposing so few lease sales in the new 5 year leasing program. The logic for this minimalist leasing program seems to be that future production is neither necessary nor desirable. Indeed the program implies that the long-term nature of offshore production is a liability and is justification for limiting OCS oil and gas leasing:
“BOEM’s short-term (20-year) production forecast for existing leases shows steady growth from 2022 through 2024 and declining thereafter (see Section 5.2.1). The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.“
5 Year Leasing Program, p.3
Basing leasing decisions on “future climate pathways” would seem to be a considerable stretch of the Secretary’s authority under the OCS Lands Act and may be inconsistent with the recent SCOTUS decision in West Virginia vs. EPA. A strategic shutdown of the offshore oil and gas program would dramatically increase energy supply and security risks going forward, and should be authorized by Congress.
Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 5 year leasing plan, Daniel Yergin, DOI, EIA, fossil fuel consumption, IEA on July 5, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Yet the proposed 5 Year OCS leasing program (p. 3) tells us that long term offshore production is not needed because the IEA’s “roadmap to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the global energy sector would require no new investment in fossil fuel supply projects (IEA 2021).”
Does the IEA dictate US energy policy? Dan Yergin has a far better grasp on the realities of energy consumption and transitions.
“Oil, discovered in 1859, did not surpass coal as the world’s primary energy source until the 1960s, yet today the world uses almost three times as much coal as it did in the ’60s.“
Posted in energy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged EIA, Gulf of Mexico production, systems issues on July 2, 2022| Leave a Comment »
The April oil production figure for the Gulf of Mexico has thus not yet been released.
These ongoing issues must be rather embarrassing for a data driven agency.
Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 5 year leasing plan, EIA, Gulf of Mexico production, IER on June 30, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Leasing shutdowns have consequences. See the IER article, and the post below regarding the importance of new production, which is dependent on consistent leasing and exploration programs. Will the proposed leasing plan be issued today as promised?
“According to EIA, declining production from existing Gulf of Mexico fields will largely offset the increases in oil production from the new fields, with natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico continuing its three-year decline. During 2021, 15 percent of U.S. oil production and 2 percent of U.S. natural gas production was produced in the Gulf of Mexico.”
IER
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 