Yesterday, Lars Herbst attended the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook presentation. The slides are attached.
Below is a custom chart from the EIA data tables. While EIA predicts growth in renewable generating capacity, US oil and gas production are nonetheless projected to increase slightly through 2050.
Victoria Nuland’s glee over the Nord Stream damage (video clip below) is particularly galling to those responsible for offshore production, worker safety, and environmental protection. Does she realize that the Gulf of Mexico has more than 13,000 miles of active offshore pipeline that could be similarly targeted, and that the US has 2.6 million miles of onshore pipelines?
Whether or not the US was involved in the Nord Stream sabotage, Ms. Nuland’s schadenfreude is disturbing given the economic and security implications of the attack.
Offshore gas has important environmental advantages, particularly nonassociated gas-well gas (GWG). While the GoM production chart (below) is not pretty, there are signs that gas production may have bottomed and is slowly rising. This is largely due to growth in oil-well gas (OWG) associated with deepwater oil production.
A successful offshore program requires a mix of strategies, and it is encouraging that companies are still pursuing natural gas on the GoM shelf. The second chart (below), based on BOEM data, shows 2022 YTD (probably through Oct.) GWG production for the 11 companies that (1) produced more GWG than OWG and (2) produced more than 1 BCF of GWG.
Interestingly, 100% of the gas produced by Contango, Samchully, and Helis in 2022 was from gas wells. Contrast this with bp, the third largest GoM gas producer. None of bp’s gas production was from gas wells.
Tennessee Twist:TC Energy’s $29.3 million investment in a RNG (renewable natural gas) production facility near the Jack Daniel’s Distillery will see the Canadian operator producing RNG with a carbon-intensity score that is 50% lower than traditional natural gas, saving up to 16,000 tonnes of CO2e per year, according to the company.
“This investment is our first in the production of renewable natural gas,” said Corey Hessen, TC Energy executive vice president and president, power & Energy solutions. “The production of RNG onsite at the Jack Daniel’s Distillery offers TC Energy one more opportunity to meet the challenge of growing energy needs and reducing emissions while providing customers with access to an affordable, reliable, source of energy.”
By comparison, vented Gulf of Mexico methane emissions in 2021 totaled 1953 mmcf. This converts to 82 million pounds at atmospheric pressure and 60°F. The identified Turkmenistan sources would thus release the amount of methane in a month that all Gulf of Mexico facilities vent in a year (2021).
East of Hazar, Turkmenistan, a port city on the Caspian Sea, 12 plumes of methane stream westward. The plumes were detected by NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation mission and some of them stretch for more than 20 miles (32 kilometers).
ONRR mandatory production reporting data are being sorted to assess GoM flaring and venting trends. This will help resolve inconsistencies previously identified. In the meantime, the table below summarizes the 2021 data. 1.03% of the gas produced that year was flared or vented. 0.25% of the gas production was vented.
Interestingly, more gas-well gas was vented than flared. This is presumably because older shelf facilities without flare booms still produce 25% of the gas (versus only 7% of the oil), mostly from gas wells. More to follow.
gas production
flared (%)
vented (%)
flared & vented (%)
OWG
582,204
5919 (1.01)
1405 (0.24)
7324 (1.26)
GWG
209,779
311 (0.15)
548 (0.26)
859 (0.41)
total
791,983
6230 (0.79)
1953 (0.25)
8183 (1.03)
OWG=oil well gas; GWG=gas well gas; all volumes are in MMCF
In a world where diplomacy seems to be lacking, it’s nice to learn that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on their maritime boundary, and that both countries are satisfied. Based on press reports, it appears that the Qana gas field will fall under the control of Lebanon and that Israel will control the Karish field. Good for Lebanon, good for Israel, and good for energy!
The quote below is encouraging. Hopefully, the technical team will be able to function independently, and will have strong leadership. I would like to see participation by the Petroleum Safety Authority of Norway.
“There are good teams in place to handle pipeline accidents, there are emergency pipe inventories and experts for onshore and offshore,” Jens Schumann, managing director of gas pipeline grid company Gasunie Deutschland, said.
In our September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect natural gas consumption to increase by 3.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the United States during 2022 to average 86.6 Bcf/d for the year, the most annual U.S. natural gas consumption on record. We forecast that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase in all end-use sectors this year. We expect the U.S. electric power sector to grow by 4% in 2022 to 32.1 Bcf/d, exceeding the 2020 record by 1%, which is the highest growth rate among all sectors.