Posted in energy, energy policy, natural gas, tagged EIA, Energy Outlook 2023, natural gas production, oil production on March 17, 2023| Leave a Comment »
Yesterday, Lars Herbst attended the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook presentation. The slides are attached.
Below is a custom chart from the EIA data tables. While EIA predicts growth in renewable generating capacity, US oil and gas production are nonetheless projected to increase slightly through 2050.
Posted in Guyana, Offshore Energy - General, tagged Exxon, FPSOs, Guyana, oil production on December 22, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Exxon is now producing >360,000 bopd from just two Guyana FPSOs. So these two FPSOs are producing about 20% as much oil as the Gulf of Mexico or Norway. A third FPSO will add 220,000 bopd in 2023.
Guyana’s oil output is expected to increase significantly in 2023, as both projects maintain steadier production at capacity throughout the year, and as the third project, Payara, comes on stream in the second half of the year. Payara will add another 220,000 bpd of production capacity to Stabroek Block output, taking it to 580,000 bpd.
Oil Now
Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged Dead Sea, Gulf of Mexico, horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, oil production, Permian Basin on December 6, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Like its salty neighbor to the east, the Permian Basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico has been proclaimed dead on many occasions. Such proclamations of their demise, however, are mere exaggerations as the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin continue to thrive.
These historic oil and gas production powerhouses have delivered to global markets billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas over the past century. Through the booms and the busts, the resiliency of each was made possible by the combination of ingenuity and perseverance and by advancements in techniques and technologies.
JPT
Thirty years ago the Gulf of Mexico was called “the Dead Sea” because of the decline in drilling and production activity. Deepwater technology reversed that trend and led to record Gulf of Mexico oil production averaging 1.9 million BOPD in 2019.
Similarly, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology launched the shale revolution, and Permian oil production has risen impressively to 5.4 million BOPD.
Both the Permian and the GoM have the potential to sustain or increase production. The Permian Basin, much of which is privately owned, is more adaptable to market conditions and less exposed to political risks. The offshore program is dependent on effective long-term planning and supportive lease management policies. Unfortunately, the proposed 5 year leasing plan suggests a commitment to throttling offshore production rather than sustaining it. When will our energy policy pendulum swing back to a more balanced position?
Posted in energy policy, tagged decrease, oil production, OPEC+ on October 5, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged EIA short term forecast, gas production, Gulf of Mexico, longer term concerns, oil production on June 23, 2022| Leave a Comment »
The EIA forecast looks about right. Production from new projects should offset existing field declines and maintain relatively stable volumes over the next 2-3 years. In the intermediate and longer terms we have problems given the dearth of exploratory drilling and new discoveries, and the complete absence of leasing.
Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged leasing, offshore energy, oil production, supply chain on June 7, 2022| Leave a Comment »
active leases ➡ producible leases ➡ energy production
The future of US offshore energy production is in jeopardy. As is clear in the first chart below, the problem is the precipitous decline in opportunities (l.e. leases), not the will to produce. At 27.3% (6/2022 data), the % of active leases that are producing is near the historic high of 30%. The spin doctors really need to drop the old and tired nonproducing leases excuse.
While not nearly as high as it could be with better lease management, offshore production has held up relatively well thanks to deepwater discoveries that were made years ago and technical innovation that makes projects more cost-effective, safer, and cleaner. Gulf of Mexico production should be relatively stable for several years as production from these projects offsets declines elsewhere. However, in the intermediate and longer term, reserve depletion and the absence of new exploration opportunities ensure a downward production trend.
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged deepwater production, floating production units, Gulf of Mexico, oil production on May 31, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Waiting for a boost from the deepwater startups. The first of that group, King’s Quay did not begin producing until April.
Posted in drilling, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged AnadarkoOxy, Arena, bp, Cantium, Chevron, exploration, Exxon, Gulf of Mexico, Hess, INCs, LLOG, Murphy, natural gas production, oil production, Shell, violations, well starts on May 10, 2022| Leave a Comment »
| 2021 oil (MMbbls) | 2021 gas (BCF) | 2021/22 well starts total-expl | 2021/22 INCs W-CSI-FSI | |
| Shell | 149.8 | 190.8 | 28-12 | 11-14-4 |
| bp | 114.0 | 82.7 | 5-2 | 6-3-4 |
| Chevron | 83.7 | 42.2 | 8-8 | 1-1-3 |
| Anadarko (Oxy) | 67.7 | 57.8 | 8-6 | 8-5-1 |
| Hess | 27.5 | 61.7 | 2-2 | 7-4-0 |
| Murphy | 25.1 | 50.0 | 7-7 | 4-8-1 |
| LLOG | 20.4 | 29.0 | 3-0 | 1-1-1 |
| Talos | 17.7 | 23.0 | 5-0 | 25-26-14 |
| BHP | 14.5 | 5.9 | 3-2 | 2-3-0 |
| Exxon | 13.2 | 2.3 | – | 1-1-1 |
| Beacon | 10.5 | 15.7 | 1-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Fieldwood | 10.4 | 24.7 | – | 685-235-91 |
| EnVen | 9.6 | 12.6 | 6-0 | 2-6-3 |
| Kosmos | 9.4 | 8.4 | 1-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Arena | 8.6 | 27.9 | 32-0 | 68-45-19 |
| Walter | 8.1 | 36.2 | 2-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Cox | 6.2 | 30.3 | – | 237-169-3 |
| Eni | 4.7 | 13.6 | 2-0 | 8-0-2 |
| W&T | 5.0 | 27.2 | 1-0 | 65-40-7 |
| Cantium | 4.5 | 5.5 | 18-0 | 23-15-2 |
| QuarterNorth | 4.2 | 8.3 | – | no data |
| GoM Shelf | 2.3 | 4.8 | – | 52-5-2 |
| ANKOR | 1.4 | 2.5 | – | 0-0-1 |
| Byron | 1.0 | 4.4 | – | 5-8-2 |
| Renaissance | 0.7 | 1.6 | – | 20-9-3 |
| Sanare | 0.3 | 4.5 | – | 38-20-3 |
| Helis | 0.2 | 1.2 | – | 1-0-2 |
| Contango | 0.03 | 5.0 | – | 4-0-0 |
| Samchully | 0.02 | 1.2 | – | no data |
Comments:
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged EIA, Gulf of Mexico, oil production on April 1, 2022| Leave a Comment »
Even after full recovery from Hurricane Ida, Gulf of Mexico production remained well below the August 2019 monthly peak of 2.044 million BOPD. Production should trend upward in the near term as the Vito, Anchor, Argos, King’s Quay, and Whale floating production units come online. However, to sustain production near or above 2 million BOPD, exploration activity needs to be stimulated. This will be difficult given the suspension of leasing, and the continuous legal and administrative challenges.
Meanwhile the April 1 rig count held steady at 14.
Posted in energy policy, tagged IEA, net zero, oil production, OPEC on February 16, 2022| Leave a Comment »
February 2022:
For a second time this week, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), called on the OPEC+ group on Wednesday to narrow the widening gap between its production quotas and the much lower actual supply to the market.
OilPrice.com
May 2021:
There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway
IEA Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
So much for what remains of the IEA’s credibility.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 