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Posts Tagged ‘oil production’

Following the 200,000 bopd decline in Sept. because of Tropical Storms Francine and Helene, Oct. GoM oil production was once again in the normal range for 2024. With the exception of Sept., average 2024 production has been remarkably consistent from month to month.

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As expected, the Gulf of Mexico’s remarkable 7 month production consistency streak ended in September as a result of shut-ins associated with Tropical Storms Francine and Helene. Nonetheless, average daily production still amounted to 88% of the ~1.8 million bopd average that had been achieved for the previous 7 months. Rather impressive resiliency!

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The streak of unprecedented Gulf of Mexico oil production stability was extended to 7 months in August.

As a result of shut-ins for Tropical Storms Francine and Helene, the streak will end when the production for Sept. is posted.

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The stability in Gulf of Mexico oil production rates, as noted when the data for June were released, continued into July. Oil production once again remained remarkably consistent at 1.8 million bopd.

Average daily production was within 1.4% of 1.8 million bopd for each month from February to July. As previously observed, this is as stable as production has been for any 6 month period in the past 10 years. I’m not sure this observation is terribly significant, but it’s interesting nonetheless. 😀

If the streak didn’t end in August, it most certainly did in September given the shut-ins for Hurricanes Francine and Helene.

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Production on private lands in leading energy states fuels our independence.

Opportunity + Ingenuity ➡ Energy Independence + Prosperity

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Average GoM oil production from Nov. to Jan. was more than 130,000 BOPD below the July to Oct. average. Production in Jan. 2024 was 245,000 BOPD lower than Sept. 2023 production. (See the table and chart below.)

The production shut-ins associated with the mysterious November sheen in the Main Pass area were no doubt a contributing factor to the decline, but the magnitude and duration of those shut-ins has not been disclosed. The source of the sheen has apparently still not been determined, nor has any information been provided on the status of the Federal investigation. The absence of transparency is disappointing.

production monthGoM oil production (BOPD, 1000’s)
Jan. 20241752
Dec. 20231829
Nov. 20231845
Oct. 20231950
Sept 20231997
Aug. 20231890
July 20231935
EIA data

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With Sept. production revised down slightly, there have been no 2 million bopd months for 4 years (since Nov. 2019).

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OilNow has posted a good Guyana update. Production should reach 620,000 bopd in Q1 and grow to >1.2 million bopd in 2027/28. The growth in production is plotted below.

End of year data from gov.guyana for 2021-23. 2024 (Q1) and 2027 estimates are from OilNow
Map shows locations of Exxon’s Guyana developments (current and planned)

Neighboring countries in the Caribbean region are taking notice!

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Per EIA, September Gulf of Mexico production averaged 2 million bopd on the button! New production from Vito and Argos were no doubt contributors, as production reached the 2 million bopd mark for only the third month in the history of the OCS program. The other 2 months were in 2019.

Imagine what US offshore production might be if the OCS oil and gas program was actually managed to succeed!

Also, as the official hurricane season comes to a close today, we are fortunate in that there have been no production shut-ins from tropical storms in 2023.

Vito

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No tropical storm production shut-ins in 2023 YTD.

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