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Lars Herbst saw this “beauty” while sitting at a rooftop “establishment” in Pensacola. Reminded him of our temporary Pensacola office and Destin Dome drilling. Lars had visions of returning to work as Pensacola District Manager! 😉

Upon returning to his senses, Lars reports that it’s the Borr jack-up rig Odin purchased from Noble’s fleet. The rig was brought from Mexico to Pensacola for modifications, and will be under contract to Cantium to drill in the GOA, but not the Eastern GOA!

Meanwhile, the California Coastal Commission notified Sable Offshore that it intends to issue a cease and desist order aimed at shutting down crude oil extraction in the Santa Barbara Channel.

Sable responds: “Sable Offshore Corp. (“Sable”) through its subsidiary, Pacific Pipeline Company (“PPC”), continues to lawfully operate through its existing coastal development permits which were issued in 1986.”

California cage fight! Who ya’ got?

I had the pleasure of visiting the Hibernia gravity-based structure while it was still under construction in Bull Arm, Newfoundland (photo). This pioneering facility, where Newfoundland’s offshore production began in Nov. 1997, continues to impress.

In April, Hibernia posted its highest monthly production since August 2021 – 3.1 million barrels or 103,000 bopd. Exxon attributes the production growth to a recent 6-well drilling program. The Hibernia field has produced more than double the original resource estimate of 520 million barrels.

Offshore Newfoundland’s total April production, increased to 9.4 million barrels, with a sharp increase in the value of production (see figure below). This is the highest monthly production level for the province since March 2020, and the second highest monthly production value on record, only behind July 2008.

Meanwhile, production at Hebron, another Exxon GBS structure, has reached record levels this year (chart below). The facility is producing more than 5 million bbls/month.

Finally, Suncor’s decision to refurbish the Terra Nova FPSO and resume production may be paying off given production levels of ~1 million bbls/month.

DOT and others shouldn’t make statements they can’t back up (see the X post below).

As a supporter of responsible offshore oil and gas operations, I find statements like this to be irresponsible and embarrassing. Sable Offshore is not using newer or safer drilling technology than is used in many other areas.

Offshore Guyana seismic line

Oil Now Guyana reports that an Exxon artificial intelligence model built using Guyana’s offshore seismic data was able to identify already-discovered crude oil accumulations with a 90% success rate.

Neil Chapman, Exxon: “…in Guyana, we have built an agent, a model…which if we give it the seismic data that we’ve run and we say, go find the crude oil, it can find all the crude oil that we’ve already found with a 90% success rate.”

(Note: Humans are also great at identifying discoveries after the fact 😉. How many false positives were there?)

Chapman said the company has also used artificial intelligence to review well data from across the industry.

“We have analyzed the well data from 50,000 wells that have been drilled in the industry all over the world, 50,000,” Chapman said. “It would have taken us 15 years to do that analysis. We’ve done it in a matter of weeks.” 

Despite the many advances in exploration technology over the years, one caveat remains unchanged: “We don’t know if they’re going to be successful or not until you drill a hole, you can never be sure,” Chapman said. 

AI should enhance not just geophysical interpretations, but all aspects of offshore exploration and production including site surveys, well planning and construction, drilling, well control, structure designs, production and pipeline monitoring, and safety management. Hopefully, the net result will be increased production at lower cost with improved safety and environmental performance, and that the workforce will not be reduced, but will become more efficient.

Stunning picture taken offshore Guyana

North Sea pioneer JL Daeschler is among those lamenting the sad state of UK exploration and development, commenting that he is “green” with envy of Norway’s long term management of their oil and gas resources.

Researchers at the University of Aberdeen may be showing the way for exploitation of the West of Shetland area’s estimated 4.7 billion bbls of oil equivalent (boe). They are advocating a tailored management regime for this challenging area. Per the researchers:

“West of Shetland is not a depleted frontier – it is a technically demanding but strategically important energy province,” said Nick Schofield, Professor of Igneous & Petroleum Geology at the University of Aberdeen. “Our study highlights the remaining oil and gas potential in the area, which could extend the life of the UK’s oil and gas sector.”

John Underhill, Aberdeen University’s Director for Energy Transition said: “Failing to develop these domestic resources risks increasing the UK’s dependence on imports, with implications for emissions, costs, jobs, tax revenues and energy security.” 

The researchers argue that a “one-size-fits-all” approach to UKCS taxation fails to reflect the unique risks and costs associated with West of Shetland exploration, appraisal and development. As a result, they say projects that are technically viable may remain economically marginal under current conditions.

The University of Aberdeen paper (linked) advocates a tailored regime that would:

  • Recognize higher exploration and development costs
  • Account for increased geological and operational risk
  • Encourage investment in challenging projects
  • Enable tie-backs to existing infrastructure that would provide energy security, tax revenues, retain jobs and be better for the global climate than importing liquified natural gas (LNG), which carries a higher carbon footprint.
  • Support the development of already identified prospects within licensed areas

Rosebank update:

The West of Shetland area includes the controversial Rosebank project (map above), which has yet to receive environmental consent from the UK govt. Following a court ruling, Equinor (operator) was given permission to proceed with the project, including preparatory engineering and construction work, but no production is allowed pending final govt approval.

The PetoJarl Rosebank Floating Production Storage and Offloading (PFSO) vessel recently left its dry dock in Norway and has arrived in the West of Shetland basin. The vessel will undergo commissioning to be ready for production by the end of the year.

PetroJari Rosebank FPSO
Jennette Barnes/CAI

Pointing to the potential financial implications for GE Vernova, Recharge News cites this serious fraud accusation by Vineyard Wind (VW):

“This exceptional misconduct includes [GE Vernova’s] intentional scheme to falsify critical quality assurance data… and to intentionally misrepresent the quality of those blades to [Vineyard Wind] in a brazen fraudulent, and willful breach of the TSA, ultimately resulting in the catastrophic blade failure…”

Recharge also discusses the findings of the Project Engineer appointed by VW to resolve claims between parties. Under the terms of the contract, the engineer’s determinations are binding unless overturned in arbitration.

  • The engineer determined that GE Vernova was liable for project delays, blade defects, vessel costs, and a $185m rescission of previously certified payments.
  • The damage claims issued by the project engineer total $853m.
  • On the basis of those determinations, VW withheld 100% of the outstanding invoices issued by GE Vernova. Even netted against sums allegedly owed to GE Vernova, VW says the turbine maker owes around $545m.
  • Per the contract, there are no limitations on liability in cases of “fraud, gross negligence, deliberate default or willful misconduct.”

My take: VW’s charges against GE Vernova will be resolved in the courts. However, VW is the lessee and operator, and is thus the party responsible to the Federal govt for project safety and environmental protection.

  • Operator responsibility is a fundamental tenet of the OCS regulatory program. As lessee/operator, VW bears ultimate responsibility for project safety and environmental protection.
  • VW is responsible for contractor selection, management, and oversight.
  • If a contractor violates a regulation, the violation notice is given to the operator. If a contractor causes pollution, the operator is responsible for the cleanup.
  • DNV, the Certified Verification Agent (CVA) hired by VW, was required to verify the design, fabrication, and installation procedures. Did they raise any issues to VW and the regulators?
  • At VW’s request, BOEM waived a Fabrication and Installation Report (FIR) requirement so the project could stay on schedule. The FIR addresses quality assurance measures, so the waiver is highly relevant and concerning.
  • Did the division of responsibilities between BOEM and BSEE weaken regulatory oversight? BOEM, ostensibly just the leasing bureau, should not have been authorized to grant departures that could affect structural integrity and operational safety.
  • It’s surprising that VW has not been cited for civil penalties resulting from the blade failure and the resulting environmental damage.
  • How can a judge prevent a contractor from stopping work for an operator that has filed serious fraud allegations against the contractor, has stopped making payments, and has, along with the Governor, declared the project to be complete?

Lastly, nearly two years after the blade failure, we are still awaiting BSEE’s investigation report.

The Canning River, seen here in 2018, flows from the Brooks Range into the Beaufort Sea along the western edge of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The river marks the boundary between the refuge, which is managed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, and state land on the North Slope. Results of an oil lease sale that offered 58 tracts in the refuge’s coastal plan drew bids on five tracts. The highest-dollar bid was for a tract right at the Canning River edge of the refuge’s border with state land. (Photo by Lisa Hupp/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)

Yesterday’s mandated One Big Beautiful Bill sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge turned out to be a one-on-one competition between an Alaskan independent and a State agency! Only 5 of the 58 tracts received bids, and the high bid was $1.7 million.

The competitors:

  • HEX Energy, an Alaskan independent: 4 bids, 2 high bids
  • Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA), the state government’s economic development agency: 5 bids, 1 high bid

Full sale results

The implications for Arctic offshore sales are not good, but oil companies can be fickle, and opinions and investment strategies are subject to change, especially in the Arctic.

Sable posts

Nothing tilts public opinion more than high gasoline prices, or worse yet shortages! Hence the 1975 legislation establishing the SPR, the massive SPR drawdown in 2022, and this year’s withdrawals.

Looking back to the halcyon days of the US offshore program, it was the gas lines in the 1970s that drove the remarkable and rather unlikely growth in the program during the Carter Administration (1977-1981). A few highlights from those four years:

  • 15 lease sales including 3 offshore Alaska, 3 in the Atlantic, and 1 offshore California
  • Drilling activity in all 4 regions: GoM, Pacific, Alaska, and Atlantic
  • Natural gas discovery in the Mid Atlantic (Hudson Canyon Unit)
  • North, Mid, and South Atlantic District offices for permitting and inspections
  • 5300 well starts including 97 in water depths > 1000′
  • 314 new platforms including Cognac, the world’s first platform in > 1000′ of water

Perhaps unthinkable today, the Governor of Massachusetts from 1979-1983, Ed King, was a strong supporter of offshore drilling. Absent that support, the exploratory drilling on Georges Bank would probably have never occurred. /s/ Nostalgic Old Man 😉