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2026 licensing rounds – North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea

Norway is currently producing about 2 million bbls of oil per day (similar to Gulf of America oil production) and 12 billion cu ft of gas per day (6 times Gulf gas production).

Norway’s production is expected to remain high until the end of the 2020s, after which it will decline. To slow the decline, more exploration is needed, both in well-explored and under-explored areas. In addition, more investment is needed in fields, discoveries, infrastructure and technology development. Lack of investment will lead to a rapid decline in the petroleum industry (ala the UK). The Barents Sea is expected to contribute significantly to Norway’s future production.

When asked about the EU’s support for a moratorium on Arctic drilling and production, Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland (pictured) responded diplomatically: “In today’s geopolitical and security environment, and given the resource situation, I believe continued activity in the Barents Sea serves both Norwegian and European interests.”

Anders Opedal, CEO of Equinor, which is 2/3 Norwegian govt owned, was more blunt. He said oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Barents Sea can be shipped anywhere in the world if rejected by the EU.“The only thing that will suffer from this is actually European security. We have the flexibility.”

Oil and gas demand is not going away. Where is the EU going to find a more environmentally responsible producer? As noted last month, Norway is by far the world leader in minimizing flaring. That’s evidence of outstanding production management.

The country has taken other well-intended emissions reduction measures like electrifying distant platforms and injecting CO2 that have high costs and questionable benefits. Nonetheless, they are the type of initiatives that the EU supports. Good luck finding a more secure, eco-friendly producer!

Norway’s Improved Recovery Award recognizes companies that apply new methods and technology to increase oil and gas recovery on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. This year’s winner is Okea, an operator of mid- and late-life assets. Okea seeks to extend field life, explore for new resources, and unlock value from existing infrastructure.

“The end is also a good start”

Okea is using geosteering technology and real-time data integration to drill and target record length horizontal wells. As a result, the production of marginal resources has become profitable. Their systematic exploration has also increased oil and gas reserves for both Brage and Draugen. The estimated life of these platforms has thus been extended to 2040.

The Brage field in the North Sea was discovered in 1980, and production began in 1993. The Draugen field in the Norwegian Sea was discovered in 1984, and started production in 1993. Impressively, the expected recovery rate has increased from 67.3 percent in 2019 to 72.6 percent in 2026.

This is an excellent awards concept that should be considered for US offshore operations, where companies in the Gulf, Pacific, and the Beaufort Sea/Cook Inlet are making special efforts to increase ultimate recovery from mature fields.

JL Daeschler shared this fitting goodbye to Dolly Parton from the oilpatch.

Gulf of America lease map: 199 oil and gas leases were wrongfully acquired for carbon disposal purposes. At Sale 261, Repsol acquired 36 nearshore Texas tracts in the Mustang Island and Matagorda Island areas (red blocks at the western end of the map above). Exxon had acquired 163 nearshore Texas tracts (blue in map above) at Sales 257 (94) and 259 (69).

In pursuit of a “$4 trillion industry” funded by tax credits and energy consumers, Exxon tarnished the corporation’s impressive Gulf of Mexico legacy by acquiring oil and gas leases solely for carbon disposal purposes (see caption above). That gambit and Repsol’s copycat strategy have apparently failed.

On June 29, 2026, Energy Intelligence reported that Exxon had begun relinquishing those leases. Kudos to those in the Administration who refused to buckle under pressure from lobbyists seeking to convert the leases to authorize carbon disposal.

That said, this sad chapter in OCS program history may not be over. 94 of the disposal leases have yet to be relinquished. Here is the current status of the improperly acquired leases:

  • All 36 of the Repsol’s Sale 261 leases were relinquished effective 2/19/2026.
  • All 69 of Exxon’s Sale 259 leases were relinquished effective 6/11/2026.
  • None of Exxon’s 94 Sale 257 leases have been relinquished to date. Perhaps these leases are being held as a hedge in case there is another legislative end run or a policy decision that would facilitate conversion of the leases, or for tax/accounting purposes? As things stand, the leases expire in Oct. 2027.

Exxon and Repsol attempted to gain an unfair advantage by acquiring their preferred disposal leases without competition and before leasing and regulatory processes had been established. One could argue that they were fortunate to have avoided criminal penalty consideration given that they knowingly and willfully violated the terms of the sale notices.

The companies will lose their bonus payments which amounted to approximately $25 million for Exxon and $4 million for Repsol. They have also been paying rental fees of $10/acre/year for the Sale 259 and 261 leases, and $7/acre/year for the Sale 257 leases.

Lastly, one company was directly affected by the improper bidding.  Focus Exploration was a second bidder for one of the blocks acquired by Exxon in Sale 259 (red in map below). Presumably, Focus was interested in acquiring the tract for oil and gas exploration purposes, but their bid was a bit lower than Exxon’s. Should Focus be compensated in some manner?

History of the Exxon and Repsol CCS lease acquisitions.

Annual mean differences in precipitation between simulations with Wind Farm 2050 projection and control NOWF simulation for all wind directions (0—360°) over the period of 2008–2017 a for Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands and b for UK. This figure was created with Matplotlib (Hunter, J. D., Matplotlib: a 2D graphics environment. Computing in Science and Engineering 9, 2007) and Cartopy (Met office, Cartopy: a cartographic python library with a matplotlib interface. Exeter, Devon, https://scitools.org.uk/cartopy, 2015).

Abstract from a German study published in Nature – “Projected impacts of future offshore wind farms on coastal precipitation over the Northwest European shelf”:

“Offshore wind energy plays a central role in reaching the European Green Deal target of a climate-neutral Europe by 2050. In this study, we simulate offshore wind development for 2023, 2030, and beyond 2050 across the Northwest-European Shelf, using various turbine sizes over a 10-year period, an approach not previously undertaken. For the post-2050 scenario, we assess the maximum potential deployment within all currently identified development zones in North Sea countries. Results indicate that large-scale offshore wind farm expansion can reduce surface wind speeds by up to 2–3 m s⁻¹. Notably for post-2050 scenario, precipitation decreases by 10–12% in coastal regions of Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, and by more than 15% in parts of Jutland, Denmark, particularly under south-westerly winds. Conversely, precipitation increases over the wind farm areas. These findings suggest that extensive offshore wind deployment may significantly alter regional climate patterns, highlighting the need for further multi-model investigations to reduce uncertainty.”

The study found that existing wind farms under the 2023 and 2030 scenarios indicate small effects on precipitation, with effects primarily confined to marine areas. However, the large-scale deployment of offshore wind farms in the Northwest-European shelf, as projected for 2050, has a significant and spatially distinct impact on regional precipitation patterns, specifically in the regions over northern Germany and Denmark, highlighting the critical role of scale and turbine density in driving these changes.

Amazing orcas!

Evan Zimmerman shared this fascinating video. Worth watching.

Big win for Sable!

Sable Offshore Corp. may use an emergency restart order from Energy Secretary Chris Wright as legal authority to continue transporting Santa Ynez Unit production through the onshore pipeline system.

Judge Stephen V. Wilson said the Defense Production Act (DPA) is a “significant statutory grant of authority to the executive, giving the President substantial discretionary power to compel private industry, allocate resources, and incentivize domestic production for national defense.”

The opinion also granted the Trump administration’s request to modify a federal consent decree entered in 2020 which governs the restart of the Las Flores pipeline system.

The order removes the California Office of the State Fire Marshal as the primary agency responsible for Sable’s compliance with the oil spill consent decree, and substitutes the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.

Here is the 45 page decision.

Gulfwide, Chevron was high bidder for 9 of the 10 blocks they sought vs. 6 of 9 for Oxy, 5 of 8 for Shell, 5 of 6 for BP, and 5 of 5 for Equinor.

US supermajors and historically important Gulf producers, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, were no-shows once again.

Bidding was spirited among the “big dogs” for KC Block 258, with BP taking the prize (assuming their $7.5 million bid is accepted). Chevron rebounded by taking KC 430, outbidding Oxy and Shell. (See below)

Among the large independents, LLOG batted 8 for 8, Murphy 6 for 8 (including the sale’s highest bid of $7.7 million), Talos 2 for 2, and Woodside 1 for 2. Our favorite tribal corporation, Red Willow Offshore (Southern Ute Tribe), partnered with LLOG, Navitas, Houston Energy, and CL&F Offshore on the high bid for Atwater Valley Block 63.

Murphy was the top $$$ bidder among all participating companies (see below). In 2025, Murphy was the Gulf’s 5th leading oil producer, trailing only Shell, BP, Chevron, and Oxy.

The sale’s highest bid ($7.7 million) was for Alaminos Canyon Block 380. The block was previously leased to LLOG, and exploratory drilling was conducted in 2019. LLOG’s lease expired on 12/20/2025, and complete well data were released on 4/24/2026. Murphy must have liked what they saw.

The absence of other bidders for AC 380 reminds us that interpretations and strategies differ. Murphy has had a pretty good track record in the Gulf. We’ll see what happens.

Murphy and Shell valued and competed for 2 other Alaminos Canyon blocks as the summary below indicates, and Murphy was the lone bidder ($4.1 million) for another.

“L” for the “W”? All 5 of Equinor’s high bids (red) formed an “L” in the Walker Ridge area. Equinor was the lone bidder for each (see below). Existing blocks WR 56 and 100 (blue) are Equinor leases. Prior lessee Anadarko drilled on block 143 in 2014

We’ll see how this all worked out in about 10-20 years! 😀

The subject Regulatory Agenda is attached. The proposed update to decommissioning requirements (abstract below) should attract attention! I would assume that, in addition to meeting Coast Guard requirements, a toppled structure would have to be accepted into a State reefing program. Otherwise the liability risks would be unacceptably high.

REVISIONS TO DECOMMISSIONING REQUIREMENTS ON THE OCS
Legal Authority: Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, 43 U.S.C. 1331 to 1356a
Relevant Executive Orders: 14154
Abstract: This rule proposes to set ‘‘topple in place’’ as the default decommissioning standard, on the condition that such circumstances meet U.S. Coast Guard navigational requirements. This proposed rule would also address issues that may include to (1) idle iron by adding a definition of this term to clarify that it applies to idle wells and structures on active leases; (2) abandonment in place of subsea infrastructure by adding regulations addressing when BSEE may approve decommissioning-in-place instead of removal of certain subsea equipment; (3) BSEE approval for platform or facility toppling in place; and (4) other operational considerations.
Timetable:
Action Date FR Cite
NPRM ……………… 07/00/27
NPRM Comment Period End. 10/00/27

No date for a final Arctic drilling or decommissioning financial assurance rule is projected. With regard to the latter, many important issues were raised by commenters, and a new proposal is likely and desirable.

A rule writer’s work is never done! Entire careers have been spent updating a single regulation! 😉

Despite favorable environmental reviews from both the Obama and Trump Administrations, the California Coastal Commission, empowered by the Courts, voted last week to prohibit the resumption of hydraulic well stimulation at DCOR’s Platform Gilda (map above).

Of course, as is always the case offshore California, the regulatory and legal battles will continue. The Secretary of Commerce may choose to overrule the CCC, in which case further litigation is certain.

This dispute comes at a time when the CCC, which operates with extraordinary autonomy, is undergoing a performance review by Commerce. Needless to say, the Commission and its supporters are not thrilled with the oversight.

In light of the spotlight on “offshore fracking,” I wanted to draw attention to a 2019 National Academies workshop that considered this very issue. I had the opportunity to participate in this workshop and was impressed by the input from industry and govt representatives.

Key points from the workshop:

  • If wells are not completed effectively, the value of drilling is negated, and it is impossible to deliver the oil or gas production needed to make the wells economically sustainable.
  • The frac pack (as is proposed for Platform Gilda) is one of the most commonly used completion techniques worldwide.
  • A gravel pack uses sieved sand as a filter to prevent formation sand from entering the wellbore, while the frac pack combines the gravel pack with hydraulic fracturing to create wide fractures filled with sieved sand that aid in connecting the reservoir to the wellbore.
  • Frac packs can create 50- to 250-foot fractures to stimulate production in a well.
  • Well stimulation offshore, which has been in practice for decades, has far less negative impact potential than well stimulation onshore.
  • Hydraulic fracturing minimizes the number of wells needed to develop a reservoir with the result being less environmental impact potential. This completion technique allows for the development of natural resources not previously considered commercially viable.
  • Offshore California, oil and gas formations typically have low permeability, and production is dependent on natural fractures. The objective is to enhance the flow of oil and gas from the tight matrix pores into the fractures.

The workshop graphic below highlights the differences in well stimulation risks onshore vs. offshore. The graphic is a bit unfair in that the onshore risks are being effectively mitigated. The main point is that much of the onshore risk potential doesn’t exist for offshore well stimulation.