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Archive for the ‘hurricanes’ Category

Decommissioning Vindeby wind project, Denmark

BOEM’s “Rule to Streamline and Modernize Offshore Renewable Energy Development” is intended to “make offshore renewable energy development more efficient, [and] save billions of dollars. Unfortunately, the savings associated with relaxed decommissioning financial assurance requirements translates to increased risk for customers and taxpayers.

BOEM signaled their intentions on offshore wind (OSW) decommissioning three years ago when they granted a precedent setting financial assurance waiver to Vineyard Wind. Despite compelling concerns raised by commenters, the “streamlining” regulations have codified this decision.

Cape May County, New Jersey, was among the commenters objecting to BOEM’s departure from the prudent “pay as you build” financial assurance requirement. The County commented as follows (full comment letter attached):

“[e]nergy-utility projects are in essence traditional public-private partnerships where technical and financial risks are transferred to the private sector in exchange for the opportunity to generate revenues and profit. Under the proposed rule, the Federal government is instead transferring risks associated with decommissioning to the consumer rather than to the private sector.

Cape May added:

[w]hile BOEM believes that if a developer becomes insolvent during commercial activity that a solvent entity would assume or purchase control, the County believes this is a risky assumption as the most likely reason for default is that a constructed wind farm developer is unable to meet its contractual obligations set forth under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) because its energy production revenues are not in excess of its operating costs. A change of hands would not remove these circumstances or make the project profitable.”

Cape May and others also commented on the threat of premature decommissioning as a result of storm damage. In response, BOEM asserts that these risks have been addressed in the latest standard for North American offshore wind turbines (Offshore Compliance Recommended Practices: 2022 Edition (OCRP-1-2022)). However, design standards, particularly those for offshore facilities, are not static. The recommended practice for OSW is likely to change multiple times in the coming years as storm, operating, and turbine performance data are updated and analyzed. The design standard for Gulf of Mexico platforms has been repeatedly refined and improved and is now in its 22nd edition.

In their response to public comments on the decommissioning risks, BOEM repeatedly asserts that they can adjust the amount and timing of required financial assurance as they monitor a lessee’s financial health. Unfortunately, a company’s finances can change quickly and BOEM’s options will be limited when it does. Increasing the financial burden on a struggling company that is providing power to a regional power grid will not be a simple proposition.

Strong comments from Cape May County:

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Per EIA, September Gulf of Mexico production averaged 2 million bopd on the button! New production from Vito and Argos were no doubt contributors, as production reached the 2 million bopd mark for only the third month in the history of the OCS program. The other 2 months were in 2019.

Imagine what US offshore production might be if the OCS oil and gas program was actually managed to succeed!

Also, as the official hurricane season comes to a close today, we are fortunate in that there have been no production shut-ins from tropical storms in 2023.

Vito

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The worst conditions were relatively common by Georges Bank standards. Per the NOAA data buoy (see plots below), the wind speed peaked at 40.8 kts, gusts at 58.3 kts, and wave height at 29.2 ft.

Looking back at my Georges Bank Exploratory Drilling paper (1983), a spring storm in April 1982 generated 105 mph winds and 35 foot swells. I’ll post information on the rig performance issues during those operations at a later date.

Image

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Genesis, which is being decommissioned, has been fully evacuated. BSEE will no doubt have information on all evacuations and shut-ins tomorrow.

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Comments on 2022 oil production:

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“The American people have moved on. The President himself has declared ‘the Pandemic is over.’ Yet, we continue holding fast to an outdated mandate, purging hundreds of dedicated sailors, even though we struggle to meet our recruiting goals. It is now time to take a pause, reevaluate, and assess what this is costing readiness, the taxpayer, and the public perception of how we treat our people,” he wrote in the letter.

Retired Coast Guard Vice Admiral William “Dean” Lee

Meanwhile, a Coast Guard hero during Hurricane Ian is about to be discharged for refusing the vaccine. He is one of 2632 Coast Guard members who refused the shots.

Coast Guard hero Zach Loesch being congratulated by the President

As previously noted, the Coast Guard expelled 7 cadets from the Academy over their Covid vaccination status.

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These dedicated and selfless volunteers are assisting in Florida rescue and recovery missions, and are once again making us proud!

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Some production has already resumed as BSEE reports that 157,706 BOPD were shut-in as of 12:30 pm ET today, down from 190,358 in yesterday’s report.

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190,358 BOPD shut-in as of 12:30 p.m. ET today. Presumably, most of the shut-in production is associated with the major deepwater platforms mentioned in our previous post. Given the projected storm track, these shut-ins should be brief.

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Based on current forecasts, Ian’s impact to Gulf of Mexico production facilities should be minimal. However, BP has shut-in Na Kika and Thunder Horse and Chevron has shut-in Petronius and Blind Faith given their more easterly locations.

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