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Archive for July, 2023

Attached is a settlement agreement between NOAA and 4 NGOs that could have major implications for deepwater oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

As background, the Rice’s Whale (formerly Bryde’s whale) area has been expanded (see map above) such that it fences off deepwater leases by creating a barrier to vessel transportation. The expansion is based on a single study that concluded that Rice’s whales were “the most plausible explanation” for moan calls observed in the northwest GOM shelf break area. No Brice’s whales were sighted in the expanded area during this study. The authors do point to a 2017 sighting offshore Corpus Christi, which is apparently the only actual sighting of a Brice’s whale along the NW GoM shelf break.

The settlement agreement commits BOEM, presumably with their concurrence, to exclude the expanded area from future leasing, to issue a Notice to Lessees and Operators (exhibit 1 below) and to attach stipulations to new leases (exhibit 2). Because BOEM’s authority to impose major new requirements without proposing a regulation for public review and comment is questionable, the Notice (NTL) describes the restrictions as “recommended measures.” However, the liability risks associated with the failure to comply with this “guidance” would be unacceptable to most companies. Adding to the muddle, the language in the lease stipulation differs by making it perfectly clear that compliance is required.

The most troubling restriction from an operational standpoint:

To the maximum extent practicable, lessees and operators should avoid transit through the Expanded Rice’s Whale Area after dusk and before dawn, and during other times of low visibility to further reduce the risk of vessel strike of Rice’s whales.

Comments:

  • Deepwater facilities are typically far from shore, and a requirement to transit only between dusk and dawn, particularly in the winter, is unrealistic and onerous. This is further complicated by the speed limit provision.
  • Those who have worked offshore know that periods of low visibility are unpredictable and can extend for days. The low visibility transit restriction is thus highly punitive and increases operational risks on the vessels and at the facilities they serve.
  • The vague “to the maximum extent practicable” caveat provides little comfort for planners, managers, and crews, and is a de facto acknowledgement that the requirement is unreasonable.
  • These restrictions, coupled with the required Automatic Identification System data, open the door to endless challenges, especially given the keen interest of the litigious organizations that are parties in the settlement agreement.
  • Deepwater GoM operations are few in number and highly dispersed, which is a more important mitigating factor than those included in the agreement. More on this tomorrow.
  • In addition to the deepwater operations that will be much more difficult to supply, there are currently 81 production platforms within the expanded Rice’s whale area (100 to 400 m water depth).These include important facilities like Amberjack, Cognac, Cerveza, and Lobster. What are the implications for these platforms? Will they be required to have full-time whale observers? Can they only be supplied during daylight hours with good visibility? Why not consider using these platforms as bases for more definitive studies?
  • Further to the previous point, there are 103 existing leases in the 100-400 m depth zone that is now excluded from leasing? 90 of these leases are still in their primary term, and 21 were issued in the past 2 years. How will the contractual rights of these leaseholders be protected? (In fact, the value of all 1550 active leases in >100 m water depth is affected by this agreement.)
  • Have BSEE and Coast Guard been consulted on the practicality and safety implications of these requirements?
  • Deepwater operations have been ongoing in the GoM for 50 years, and there is no apparent evidence of impacts to this species. Why can’t the consultation process and any necessary followup studies be completed before decisions are made regarding operating restrictions?
  • These types of restrictions, coupled with the diminished state of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and tightening oil markets, raise serious energy security and economic concerns.

Finally, BOEM’s third footnote in the NTL (pasted below), doesn’t demonstrate great confidence in the need for the onerous requirements that are being imposed.

This is not meant to be construed as a blanket determination as to whether BOEM, at present, has determined that there is a “reason to believe” that incidental take may occur, within the meaning of the ESA, the consultation regulations, or BOEM’s regulations. Those decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis in accordance with BOEM regulations referenced below.” Comment: Huh??? How are these blanket restrictions case-by-case, and how are they being imposed without public review?

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The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has held steady at 346.8 million bbls for the past 3 weeks. DOE’s latest update is as of 7/28/2023.

Previous SPR post

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Jean-Louis Daeschler, a pioneering offshore engineer, has shared this very interesting story about his interaction with George HW Bush (pictured):

One day I was driving in Kennebunkport and told my wife that I met the man who lived in that house on the coastal road – the President George HW Bush!

Early in my career, a new drillship was being built in Port Arthur TX for Zapata Offshore. One morning, the entrance to the shipyard was closed off. A peaceful group of picketers told us we could not enter. Many of us had left work clothes, file drawings, and even passports and money at our camp in the yard. This was before mobile phones and the internet! So we went back home to wait for guidance. 2-3 days later we had to attend a meeting in Houston (a 2 hr drive) at the Pennzoil Tower, and we met Mr Bush. He was very cool and calmed us down. He advised us not to cross the picket line or get into an argument with the workers. He had already made arrangements to use 4-5 rooms at a Holiday Inn near Beaumont. They removed the hotel furniture and provided desks, pencils, and phones. Our personal effects had been collected from the yard and delivered to the our temporary workplace at the Holiday Inn.

My colleagues and I had a great chat with Mr. Bush. In particular he asked me questions about the D-Day invasion at Normandy. However, although I was born there, it was at the end of the war in 1945, so I did not personally experience the invasion. We left the meeting relaxed and with directives on what not to do. He kindly gave me one of his gold Cross pens, before we shook hands and departed.

Years later at a dinner in Aberdeen with Total Fina Elf, I gave that pen to the wife of the Project Manager (without the story). So there we go; a pen from Houston goes to Paris via Aberdeen in 17 years! Sometimes you smile in the oil patch!

JL Daeschler photo: Red Adair belt with a diamond drill bit from the Beaufort sea, a hardhat from Indonesia, and 2 new Cross pens! Life is good 😀

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This wonderful satellite image of Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard was posted by a Facebook friend. Cape Cod is quite young, having been formed by a retreating glacier about 20,000 years ago.

I moved to Cape Cod 43 years ago in preparation for the exploratory drilling operations on Georges Bank. I met so many amazing and supportive people during my 4 years there including (most importantly) my wife, State and local officials, congressional representatives, Woods Hole scientists, fishermen, reporters, airport officials, industry representatives, Coast Guard officers, offshore workers, environmental activists, and concerned citizens. All contributed to an outstanding work experience for me and my colleagues.

The 8 exploratory were at locations 112 to 155 miles SE of Nantucket (map below).

I lived in Hyannis, not far from the Kennedy compound (pictured below) which was on my jogging route. It was an easy bike ride to our office at Barnstable Municipal Airport, where we departed to inspect the exploratory drilling operations.

RFK Jr. talks about the Kennedy compound and the “Camelot years” during JFK’s presidency.

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BOEM’s Final Sale Notice for the upcoming Gulf of Mexico wind auction identifies 3 lease areas (see map below). Wind operations in these areas should not significantly conflict with other GoM activities, including oil and gas operations.

Those who followed Exxon’s recent lease acquisitions may be amused by the map below from BOEM’s siting analysis document. The 94 Exxon leases acquired at Oil and Gas Lease Sale 257 (yellow blocks) are misidentified as “Carbon Capture Lease Blocks.” As has been discussed at length on this blog (most recently here), Sales 257 and 259 were oil and gas lease sales. Although Exxon’s intentions are now well known, they may not conduct carbon sequestration operations on these leases unless they are competitively reissued or converted. (Is BOEM’s siting document implying that conversion of the Exxon leases is a fait accompli?) The regulations for such conversions, and for CCS operational activities, have yet to be promulgated. A draft of these regulations is expected later this year, and the comments should be spirited and diverse.

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World Bank flaring data have some limitations as discussed in a previous BOE post. However, they provide an objective means of estimating and comparing flaring volumes worldwide, and therefore merit close attention.

The latest World Bank data tell us that significant gas flaring issues persist. Worldwide, 138,549 million m3 of gas were flared in 2022. This equates to a massive 4 tcf, the equivalent of the reserves in a major gas field and more than 5 times the total gas production in the Gulf of Mexico in 2022.

The top ten “flarers” are listed below. Each of these fields flared from 19 to 42 bcf. For comparison, the top ten GoM gas producers in 2022 produced 10 to 57 bcf, so single fields are flaring more than GoM companies are producing in total. Assuming for discussion purposes a gas-oil ratio of 1000 cu ft/bbl, all of the gas associated with 19 million to 42 million barrels of oil production was wasted from each field.

Posted below are the World Bank’s flaring intensity data (m3 of gas flared per bbl of oil produced) for the 10 countries with the highest flaring volumes. Venezuela’s flaring intensity rose to 44.6 m3/bbl in 2020, before declining moderately the following 2 years. 44.6 m3/bbl equates to 1575 cu ft/bbl. This gas flaring to oil production ratio implies that a very high percentage of Venezuela’s associated gas production was flared.

Here in North America, we have flaring issues of our own. Mexico’s Cactus Field is a top ten flarer (first table above) with 534.5 million m3 flared in 2022. The World Bank also lists 6 Permian Basin fields with >50 million m3 of gas flared in 2022.

Zeroing in on the US/Canada offshore sectors, fields with >1 million m3 of gas flared (2022) are listed below. Four of the top 7 are offshore Alaska and Newfoundland where the gas cannot currently be marketed and reinjection, field use, and flaring are the only options. Can production from these fields be better managed to reduce flaring volumes?

fieldoperatorm3 (millions)f3 (millions)
White Rose (Nfld)Cenovus41.691472
Hibernia (Nfld)HMDC40.991448
ShenziBHP31.341107
Northstar (AK)Hilcorp11.23397
ConstitutionOxy10.76380
PompanoTalos10.54372
Endicott (AK)Hilcorp10.07356
UrsaShell8.19289
MarmalardMurphy6.62234
LuciusOxy3.09109
MarlinOxy3.08109
MarsShell2.278
HolsteinOxy1.4852

The extraordinary 1.1 bcf of gas that was flared at the Shenzi field may help explain the large (1 bcf) increase in oil well gas flaring in the Gulf of Mexico in 2022. Based on the World Bank data and ONRR data for the GoM, Shenzi accounted for 16% of GoM oil-well gas flaring in 2022. As noted in that post, more regulator/industry transparency on lease and field specific flaring is needed. ONRR’s posting of flaring and venting data is a positive step, but it doesn’t include lease specific data and doesn’t explain major flaring episodes.

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“The farm-out campaign remains a key focus for United, as we seek to take this potentially transformational project forward into the next phase of the Licence. In order to do so, a commitment to drill a well will need to be made by end January 2024.

We have continued to engage with potential partners to participate alongside us in drilling this exploration well, and earlier in the year, a deadline for indicative offers had been set for the end of H1. We are encouraged by the number and quality of companies that are in the process of completing their evaluations, and as they have requested additional time, we have agreed to extend the deadline. Additional updates will be provided in due course.”

United Oil and Gas

Questions:

  • January 2024 is fast approaching. What constitutes a commitment to drill? How soon must a well be spudded?
  • Could Jamaica extend the deadline? Should they?
  • United Oil and Gas is “encouraged by the number and quality of companies that are in the process of completing their evaluations.” We’ll soon find out how serious that interest is.

For those following the Barbados Offshore Licensing Round, no updates have been posted by the Ministry of Energy and Business; nor has the BOE team received any feedback on our comprehensive bid 😉

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Pioneering subsea engineer, Jean Louis Daeschler, is also an acclaimed artist. He recently shared two paintings that are very much on-topic for this blog. The paintings depict a wind turbine installation with support from a jackup vessel, and a drilling operation with jackup rig. The paintings give a sense of the commonality of these mutually supportive industries.

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As previously posted, 14 of the 244 (not counting the 69 CCS bids) Sale 259 high bids were rejected. BOEM has published their bid evaluations for all of the tracts, and the 14 rejections are listed below.

lease #blockhigh bid ($)BOEM MROV ($)no. of bids
G37496DC 6222,101,8369,100,0001
G37515GC 173307,1071,300,0001
G37534GC 5471,783,49812,000,0001
G37538GC 5911,291,9935,200,0001
G37543GC 642605,5053,400,0001
G37548GC 777583,1034,200,0001
G37562AT 51,551,1304,700,0003
G37565AT 133607,1072,600,0001
G37616KC 745707,7773,600,0001
G37617KC 789707,7772,100,0001
G37647WR 750724,7443,500,0001
G37646WR 794724,7443,200,0001
G37648WR 795774,2425,000,0001
G37649WR 796774,2424,000,0001
MROV – Mean of the Range-of-Value

Observations:

  • Keathley Canyon (KC) Block 96, the tract receiving the highest bid in the entire sale ($15,911,947 by Chevron), had a BOEM MROV of only $576,000. Clearly, Chevron and the government have a very different view of the value of this tract. BP was the second bidder for KC 96, and their bid ($4,003,103) was also considerably higher than BOEM’s MROV. This one will very interesting to follow.
  • The only bid that was rejected in Sale 257 was the BP/Talos bid of $1.8 million for Green Canyon Block 777. BOEM’s MROV in the Sale 257 evaluations was $4.4 million. BP again bid on GC 777 in Sale 259, but their bid was only $583,000 (even though BOEM’s Sale 257 evaluation was public information). BOEM’s MROV was reduced only slightly to $4.2 million, and they again rejected BP’s bid. We’ll see what happens in the next sale.
  • 51 of the 230 accepted bids were >$1 million, all for deepwater tracts. All of the rejected bids were for deepwater tracts, and a higher percentage (4/14) were >$1 million. This makes sense given that the higher potential prospects are in deepwater.
  • These results demonstrate again that resource evaluation is far from an exact science. BOEM is not selling barrels of oil and cubic feet of gas. BOEM is evaluating prospects, and companies are bidding on the opportunity to explore these prospects.
  • Bidding strategies differ; the more companies participating, the better the long-term prospects for the OCS program.

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