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Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

Two particularly troubling examples of decisions that threatened long-term US offshore production and national security, and endorsed higher oil prices:

Sale 257 court ruling: In 2022, a Federal judge ruled in favor of higher oil prices. In response to an OCS Sale 257 lawsuit, the judge agreed with the NGO plaintiffs that BOEM failed to consider the “positive” effect that higher prices (the logical result of lower production) would have on reducing demand. In particular, the plaintiffs asserted that BOEM failed to consider the effect that reduced production (and higher prices) would have on foreign consumption and the associated GHG emissions.

The judge not only decided in favor of the plaintiffs, but ruled that BOEM’s omission was so serious that the lease sale had to be vacated. The judge’s decision was subsequently overturned by legislative action.

OCS Leasing Policy: The official leasing policy, as articulated in the 2024-2029 OCS Leasing Program (published 9/2023), was to phase out oil and gas production:

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease may not begin for a decade or more after lease issuance and can continue for decades, makes consideration of net-zero pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations on how the National OCS Program best meets the Nation’s energy needs. (p. 6, 2024-2029 Leasing Program)

The Leasing Program prioritized “net-zero pathways” over cost and national security considerations. The clear objective was to prevent new production. Absent legislative action, we would have had a 5 year leasing plan with no lease sales!

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2026 licensing rounds – North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea

Norway is currently producing about 2 million bbls of oil per day (similar to Gulf of America oil production) and 12 billion cu ft of gas per day (6 times Gulf gas production).

Norway’s production is expected to remain high until the end of the 2020s, after which it will decline. To slow the decline, more exploration is needed, both in well-explored and under-explored areas. In addition, more investment is needed in fields, discoveries, infrastructure and technology development. Lack of investment will lead to a rapid decline in the petroleum industry (ala the UK). The Barents Sea is expected to contribute significantly to Norway’s future production.

When asked about the EU’s support for a moratorium on Arctic drilling and production, Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland (pictured) responded diplomatically: “In today’s geopolitical and security environment, and given the resource situation, I believe continued activity in the Barents Sea serves both Norwegian and European interests.”

Anders Opedal, CEO of Equinor, which is 2/3 Norwegian govt owned, was more blunt. He said oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Barents Sea can be shipped anywhere in the world if rejected by the EU.“The only thing that will suffer from this is actually European security. We have the flexibility.”

Oil and gas demand is not going away. Where is the EU going to find a more environmentally responsible producer? As noted last month, Norway is by far the world leader in minimizing flaring. That’s evidence of outstanding production management.

The country has taken other well-intended emissions reduction measures like electrifying distant platforms and injecting CO2 that have high costs and questionable benefits. Nonetheless, they are the type of initiatives that the EU supports. Good luck finding a more secure, eco-friendly producer!

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Part 1

Gulf of America flaring and venting data for 2019-2025 are summarized in the attached table. The preferred performance indicators are the percentages of produced gas that are flared and vented both for oil-well gas (OWG, also known as associated or casinghead gas) and gas-well gas (GWG or non-associated gas).

The flaring and venting table was compiled using monthly data submitted to the Office of Natural Resources Revenue (ONRR). This is the best data source because reporting is mandatory and strictly enforced, and flaring and venting are accounted for separately. All volumes are in millions of cubic feet (MMCF).

The venting and flaring volumes are segmented for both OWG and GWG production. Venting produced gas (mostly methane) is a more significant environmental concern from both air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) perspectives.

Observations and Comments:

  • The total volume of gas flared and vented in 2025 was 9.7 bcf (chart 1). 80% of that volume was flared, leaving 20% vented. OWG flaring (chart 5) reached a new high of 7.785 bcf in 2025, a near record oil production year for the Gulf.
  • Total venting and flaring in 2025 increased by 819 million cubic feet vs. 2024. However, the 7-year trend line remains favorable (chart 1).
  • Thinking that 2019, a record year for total flaring and venting, may have biased the trend line, I extended the chart back to 2015, the first year for which I have ONRR data. As you can see in chart 2, the overall trend is still favorable.
  • The % of produced gas that was flared or vented remains persistently above the historical 1.0% target (chart 3). Flared/vented volumes were below 1% of production prior to 2018.
  • The higher flaring/venting % may be because most gas production is now from oil wells, which typically have higher flaring rates associated with processing upsets.
  • The flaring and venting gap between GWG and OWG has narrowed, largely because of an increase in GWG flaring/venting. The combined rate for GWG more than doubled over the 7 year period, rising to 0.81% vs. 1.34% for OWG. (chart 3)
  • Total venting rose to 1.7 bcf in 2025, the highest venting volume in 3 years.
  • The % of GWG being vented doubled over the past 5 years to over 0.50% (chart 4). The growth in venting warrants further investigation.
  • The % of OWG vented increased slightly to 0.20%. Further reduction in OWG venting had been expected given that OWG production is increasingly from deepwater facilities with modern flaring systems.
  • A 2020 Univ. of Michigan study found “Large, older facilities situated in shallow waters tended to produce episodic, disproportionally high spikes of methane emissions. These facilities, which have more than seven platforms apiece, contribute to nearly 40% of emissions, yet consist of less than 1% of total platforms.” 
  • Platform specific data would be helpful in further assessing flaring/venting sources and trends.
chart 1
chart 2
chart 3
chart 4
chart 5

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The Case for Reefing California Platforms by John Smith

Environmental groups like the Environmental Defense Center and Get Oil Out continue to oppose converting the jackets of California oil and gas platforms to artificial reefs despite scientific studies (Claisse et al. 2014) showing “oil and gas platforms off the coast of California have the highest secondary fish production per unit area of seafloor of any marine habitat that
has been studied.

Another important factor environmental groups and the 2023 BOEM Programmatic EIS for Decommissioning failed to consider and acknowledge is the huge amount of air emissions that would be released by world-class heavy lift vessels like the Thialf or Balder Semi-submersible Crane Vessels (SSCVs) that would be required to safely and efficiently remove the large federal OCS platforms like Harvest, Hermosa, and Hidalgo (HHH). The HHH platforms are in waters depths ranging from 430-675 feet and have combined deck and jacket weights ranging from 20,000 – 25,000 tons. In comparison, the wrought iron structure of the Eiffel Tower weighs about 8,000 tons.

The SSCVs and accompanying Anchor Handling Tugs (AHTs) used to remove the HHH platforms will likely to be mobilized from distant locations like the North Sea or Gulf of America where they typically operate. Because SSCVs like the Thialf and Balder are too large to enter the Panama Canal, this would involve a 20,000 nautical mile roundtrip voyage around the tip of South America.

Three to four campaigns, and separate SSCV and AHT mobilizations and demobilizations, are projected to be required to fully remove the HHH platforms because the challenging oceanographic conditions offshore Point Arguello restrict heavy lift operations to a 150-day period between May and October.

Four campaigns by the SSCV and AHT would consume about 300,000 metric tons (mt) of marine diesel oil and release approximately 470,000 mt of CO2 and 11,000 mt of NOX emissions. To put these numbers into context, 470,000 mt of CO2 and 11,000 mt of NOX are:

  • the amount of CO2 emissions released by providing electrical power to 97,600 homes annually (the city of Santa Barbara has about 38,000 housing units).
  • the amount of CO2 emissions released by burning 1.1 million barrels of oil.
  • the amount of CO2 emissions released by 102,000 gasoline burning cars annually.
  • the amount of NOX emissions released by four large oil or coal-fired power plants annually.
  • the total annual NOX emissions in Santa Barbara County.

And this is only the emissions released during mobilization and demobilization of the SSCV and AHT. If full removal is required, an additional 50 days of operational time by the SSCV and AHT is estimated to be required to remove the topside and jacket of each HHH platform. This could be reduced to about 15 days per platform if the jackets are converted to artificial reefs. Only one SSCV and AHT campaign may be required if the HHH jackets are reefed, compared to the four campaigns required for the full removal scenario. This would result in a 75 percent reduction in CO2 and NOX emissions.

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The wave data are from Georges Bank (buoy 44011, first chart) and Nantucket Shoals (buoy 44008, second chart).

Note that the significant wave height is the average height from trough to crest of the highest one-third of waves that occur in a given period.

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Per PHYS.ORG: Researchers at the Helmholtz Center Hereon have analyzed the long-term overall impact of this large number of wind farms on the hydrodynamics of the North Sea for the first time. They found that the current pattern could change on a large scale.

The peer reviewed German study is attached. Excerpt:

The near- and far-field wake effects affect vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes – primarily driven by large-scale wind stress reductions – leading to shallower mixed layers and long-term surface warming of up to 0.2 deg. C in wind farm areas. Our findings reveal a basin-scale physical footprint of offshore wind energy and highlight the need to account r hydrodynamic impacts in future offshore wind farm planning.

Note that (1) an 11/2023 NAS study raised concerns about the potential hydrodynamic effects of wind energy on Nantucket Shoals Regional Ecology (see graphics below), and (2) a 5/2022 NOAA letter had voiced similar concerns.

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Superhot geothermal is exciting because of the unlimited potential, universal availability, Star Wars drilling technology, and the dynamics of supercritical fluids.

There are still hurdles to clear, and commercial power generation is 5+ years away, but the promise is tantalizing.

Gyroton millimeter wave drilling technology

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The Always On Energy Research report is attached. Conclusion:

In other words, dispatchable generation saves New England hundreds of billions of dollars and avoids blackouts. In the end, the idea that New England can run its electric grid on wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries is a dangerous and unserious proposition.

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Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming

Senator Bill Cassidy hopes to retain his seat in the US Senate, but faces a stiff challenge from Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming.

Fleming is opposed to carbon capture and sequestration: “If elected to the U.S. Senate, the first bill I will submit will be to fully defund and repeal the 45Q tax credits that pay for this. There’s no market for this. People don’t buy this technology.

This is purely crony capitalism, where you have the government paying wealthy companies that are going to make a lot of money out of this, and the average landowner is going to suffer from it. So I’ve committed that I will submit the bill that will defund it so that money will no longer be available, and it will stop all these projects.”

posts on carbon disposal

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