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Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

The subject Nature Energy paper is helpful in that it contributes to the important dialogue on the financial aspects of offshore decommissioning. There have been numerous posts on that topic on this blog. The use of Federal funds to cover well abandonment expenses for OCS wells, although rather limited to date, is a major disappointment for those of us who have worked hard to prevent such an outcome.

The data in the paper appear to be reasonably accurate. However, there is one glaring error regarding Pacific operations, and the reference to the Macondo blowout in the environmental discussion is rather provocative and misleading.

Per the authors:

California wells are drilled in relatively shallow water—mostly less than 100 feet—while GoM wells can be in up to 10,000 feet of water.

California’s fault block shelf drops off very quickly, and deepwater drilling activity has been common for decades. Of the 23 platforms in Federal waters, only Platform Gina is in <100′ of water (95′). The other platforms are in water depths of 154 to 1178′. Six of the platforms are in >600′ of water and 2 are in >1000′. Platform Harmony (jacket pictured below) is one of the world’s largest and heaviest steel tower platforms. Relative to the numbers of facilities, the decommissioning challenges offshore California are more daunting and complex than those in the Gulf. This includes the financial liability aspects.

Jacket for Platform Harmony

With regard to the environmental risks, the Nature Energy paper’s reference to the Macondo blowout, while muted, is what some media outlets embraced. Per the authors:

Releases from improperly abandoned wells will probably be chronic and small compared with Macondo, but the underlying biochemical and ecological processes that influence the ecological impacts have many similarities.

The Macondo well blew out while it was being suspended in preparation for subsequent completion operations. Ill advised changes to the well suspension plan were among the primary contributing factors to the blowout (see diagram below). The Macondo well was entirely different from the depleted end-of-life wells that are the subject of the paper.

Some media outlets ran with the Macondo angle, weak as it was. This ABC news piece featured numerous Macondo pictures. Other outlets noted that Macondo was a temporarily abandoned well, which it was not. The Macondo well never got to that point.

National Commission, Chief Counsel’s Report, p. 132

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According to EIA data for 2001-2021, Gulf of Mexico flaring and venting volumes peaked in 2001 at 21.6 bcf, 2.25 times the volume flared or vented in 2022 (ONRR data for 2022). However, gas production in 2001 was 5.05 tcf, 6.4 times higher than in 2022. The % of the produced gas that was flared or vented in 2001 was thus 0.4%, less than 1/3 the 2022 rate of 1.22%.

Points to consider:

left axis: gas produced in millions of cubic feet; right axis: % flared or vented

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From ONRR OGOR B data:

20212022
OWG flared59196987
OWG vented14051638
GWG flared311213
GWG vented548722
total flared and vented81839559
total gas prodution791,983784,238
% flared or vented1.031.22
OWG=oil well gas; GWG=gas well gas; all volumes are in MMCF

Observations:

  • Of the 784 bcf produced, 9.6 bcf (1.2%) were either vented or flared (vs. 1.03% in 2021). With the exception of 2020 (1.3%), this is the highest % of gas flared/vented from 2015-2022.
  • The % of gas produced that is flared or vented is trending upward (first chart below).
  • Both the gas flaring and venting volumes were higher in 2022 (vs. 2021) despite lower gas production.
  • Assuming oil-well gas (OWG) production of 600 bcf (final 2022 volume not yet available), approximately 1.4% (8.6/600) of the OWG was flared or vented.
  • 2022 OWG flaring volume increased by 18% vs. 2022 despite nearly identical total oil production
  • A very large increase in OWG flaring in December skewed the 2022 data (921 million cu ft vs 522 million in November, see 2nd chart below). OWG vented and gas-well gas (GWG) vented also spiked in December (third chart). Were these spikes associated with production startups, major compressor issues, administrative/accounting corrections, or other issues?
  • Although total venting increased by 407 million cu ft (21%) in 2023 vs. 2022, the overall venting trend is still favorable (last chart).
  • The previously noted inconsistencies in flaring data sets remain a concern.
  • Kudos to ONRR for posting the flaring/venting data.
  • More regulator/industry transparency on flaring episodes is needed, particularly in light of the PNAS paper and the June 2022 Inspector General Report.

related:

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“The 4776-meter-tall Pao Pao Seamount (right) in the South Pacific Ocean has been mapped by sonar. Many others haven’t.” NOAA OFFICE OF OCEAN EXPLORATION AND RESEARCH

This Science article underscores how little we know about the oceans.

With only one-quarter of the sea floor mapped with sonar, it is impossible to know how many seamounts exist. But radar satellites that measure ocean height can also find them, by looking for subtle signs of seawater mounding above a hidden seamount, tugged by its gravity. A 2011 census using the method found more than 24,000. High-resolution radar data have now added more than 19,000 new ones. The vast majority—more than 27,000—remain uncharted by sonar. “It’s just mind boggling,” says David Sandwell, a marine geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who helped lead the work.

Besides posing navigational hazards, the mountains harbor rare-earth minerals that make them commercial targets for deep-sea miners. Their size and distribution hold clues to plate tectonics and magmatism. They are crucial oases for marine life. And they are pot-stirrers that help control the large-scale ocean flows responsible for sequestering vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, says John Lowell, chief hydrographer of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), which runs the U.S. military’s satellite mapping efforts.

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An interesting study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) was brought to my attention by leading offshore energy historian Tyler Priest. The study used airborne observations and emissions reports to measure the carbon intensity (CI) of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production. Their CI measure is grams of CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions per megajoule of energy produced.

The authors conclude that inventory emissions of CO2 (as reported to BOEM) “are generally consistent with observations from our aircraft survey, suggesting that combustion is well represented in the federal inventory.

However, that is not the case for methane (CH4) emissions which are underestimated by the Federal inventories. As summarized in the chart below, deepwater facility methane emissions are consistent with the reported inventories, but shelf emissions in State and Federal waters differ significantly.

Comments:

  • As previously discussed, the lower CI for deepwater production is entirely consistent with expectations. When the most modern 5% (57) of GoM platforms are producing 93% of the oil and 76% of the gas, their CI should be impressive (which indeed it is).
  • As summarized using ONRR data, more gas-well gas was vented from 2015-2021 than was flared, which is not what you want from a GHG standpoint. Gas wells are predominantly at shallow water facilities, many of which are not equipped with flare booms.
  • Oil-well gas, most of which is produced at deepwater platforms, is flared rather than vented by a ratio of approximately 4 to 1.
  • About 15 years ago, the Federal government (MMS) considered requiring that older production platforms be retrofitted with flare booms, but safety, space limitations, and cost considerations precluded such a regulation. Instead, additional flaring/venting limits, and measurement and reporting requirements were imposed.
  • One bad actor may have been a major contributor to the shelf methane emissions observed during the study’s observational flights. That company entered into bankruptcy proceedings. Presumably those issues have been resolved and more rigorous monitoring and enforcement practices have been implemented. I’ll be looking at the 2022 ONRR flaring and venting data for evidence of such improvement. The remainder of the 2022 data should be available in May.
  • The subject study’s only observational measurements were in August 2020. Followup airborne measurements would be helpful.
  • The study only considered production emissions. Shelf facilities are primarily natural gas producers and would thus have a lower relative CI when consumed.
  • When will updated BOEM GOADS flaring and venting data be available? The latest data are for 2017 (cover below)? Are GOADS data being compared with ONRR and World Bank data?

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In addition to the 94 nearshore Texas leases Exxon acquired in Sale 257, the company was the sole Sale 259 bidder for all but one of 69 nearshore Texas blocks. The exception was High Island 177 (in red above). So who gets that lease?

  • the company (Exxon) that was the sole participant in a de facto CCS sale (bid of $182,750)
  • the company (Focus Exploration) that was participating in the announced oil and gas lease sale (bid of $145,177)

If Exxon is just acquiring these leases for evaluation purposes in preparation for a possible CCS sale in the future, their lease acquisitions may be okay. If they are planning on retaining these leases for actual sequestration operations, that is not okay, at least not until a competitive process has been established for awarding or reclassifying such leases. To date, no lease terms or bid evaluation procedures have been proposed for carbon sequestration leases; nor has an environmental review been conducted pursuant to NEPA.

Questions about Gulf of Mexico carbon sequestration

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The Minister is optimistic about the prospects for production offshore Barbados:

“I don’t want to go and give news now before it is ready to be given, but let us say the prospectivity is highly regarded,” he told a local academic forum in the Eastern Caribbean tourism paradise.

He also sends a message to “keep it in the ground” crowd.

 “Let’s be frank: All of the oil producers of the world, including Canada, speak the language of climate change and putting a stop to that, which is now being done by small entities or like those of us in Barbados who are contemplating finding natural gas, but the reality is, none of them is saying ‘I will not continue to produce the oil that I produce’ or ‘I’m shutting down all my wells,’” he said. “The Americans are not going to tell you that that’s what’s going to happen in Texas. The British, for all their partnership value, will not tell you that the North Sea will not be full of Brent crude. They’re not going to do that because they intend to produce for the next 50 years. Nobody is coming forward to say we are prepared to pay you to keep the natural gas and the oil in the ground.”

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The BBB or BoerBurgerBeweging (Farmer-Citizen Movement) party won 17 seats in the Senate, more than any other party.

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HOUSTON — Oil and gas industry leaders say they’ve seen a big shift in tone from the Biden administration over the past year, helping to smooth over one of the president’s rockiest relationships.

Washington Post

Perhaps the Washington Post reporter is correct, but the “big shift in tone” is not apparent in the offshore sector. The only lease sales have been mandated by Congress, the 5 year plan is still 9 months from completion, the lease sale terms have been less than favorable, and language in the draft 5 year plan does in fact express the intent to phase out oil and gas.

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