While the Orsted acquisition does not appear to have been directed by the Norwegian government, the State’s 2/3 ownership of the company no doubt influences renewable energy targets and broader corporate strategy.
The initial market reaction to the Orsted purchase was negative (see chart below). On a day when most oil companies’ share prices rose in response to the jump in oil prices, Equinor shares opened sharply lower.
As a boy, my grandfather owned a home “down the shore” on Long Beach Island (LBI). From the beach, all we saw were swimmers, surf fishers, porpoises, and an occasional vessel on the horizon. The offshore wind industrialization will change the island dramatically.
Attached is the release announcing Save LBI’s intent to sue. Their issues are summarized below:
Constructing and operating hundreds of wind turbines directly in a prime migration path for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale.
Operational noise from the larger and noisier turbines Atlantic Shores plans to build.
Cumulative impact of the East Coast wind-turbine projects on the right whale’s migration.
Interference with other uses of the ocean including fishing and national security.
No plan or capability, technically or monetarily, to remove turbines and other facilities at the end of their useful life, upon their failure during normal operation, or in the aftermath of a hurricane or other extreme storm event.
Failure to account for structural failures such as the Vineyard Wind turbine blade incident, the damage from such failures to the ocean and beaches, and how that damage will be remediated.
Excessive electric bill increases under the State’s Offshore Wind Energy Development Act.
The Endangered Species Act issues are similar to those that the Nantucket group ACK for Whales is trying to elevate to the Supreme Court.
Perhaps not the best choice of graphic if you want to sell the project as being environmentally benign and compatible with other uses.
The Nantucket non-profit ACK for Whales (ACK is the FAA abbreviation for Nantucket Airport) has petitioned the Supreme Court to review the 1st Circuit’s ruling on the Vineyard Wind project. Per the Supreme Court filing (full document attached):
Despite the agencies’ explicit statutory duty to consider all “best information available,” regarding the impacts its actions might have on an endangered or threatened species and those habitats, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), did not consider the cumulative impacts of other planned projects when they authorized and issued permits to construct the Vineyard Wind 1 Project.
Will the Supreme Court accept the case?
“Hail Mary:” Per the Nantucket Current, the odds that the Supreme Court justices will accept the case are exceedingly slim. Of the 7,000 cases that the Supreme Court is asked to review each year, only 100 to 150 of them – about 2 percent – are accepted.
“Really good chance:” Per Val Oliver, ACK for Whales founding director, “In light of the recent Chevron decision, we think we have a really good chance. That was about government overreach and that is what this (Vineyard Wind) has felt like since the beginning: go, go, go, and we’ll figure it out as we go. That’s just not responsible.“
Regardless of the outcome of this case, there is a profound inconsistency in the administration of the Endangered Species Act as evidenced by our comparison of the operating restrictions for the Right whale (Atlantic wind) and Rice’s whale (Gulf of Mexico oil and gas). Note that the more onerous Rice’s whale restrictions were removed by court order.
“I am disappointed that BOEM’s accelerated process over the last year has further divided stakeholder communities, and put the Confederated Tribes of the Coos, Lower Umpqua and Siuslaw Indians in the position of challenging BOEM in federal district court. Oregon’s legislative Coastal Caucus is likewise now in full opposition to BOEM’s proposed lease.“
Despite the usual hype about the number of homes that could be powered and “good-paying jobs,” the upcoming Oregon wind lease appears to be very much in doubt. If legal action by Oregon tribes doesn’t halt or delay the sale, the absence of bidders may.
OregonLive reports that only one company, NewSun Energy, continues to be interested in participating in the sale. NewSun is primarily a solar energy developer with no apparent offshore wind experience.
As previously noted, these power generation realities cannot be ignored:
Wind and solar power are intermittent, such that demand must respond to variable supply (not a prescription for economic growth).
Assuming sufficient capacity, gas power plants respond to variable demand.
Power grids can function effectively with only natural gas, but not with only wind/solar.
Integrated wind, solar, and gas systems can reduce, but not eliminate, demand for gas-generated power.
This graphic by Australian Cliff Hall explains the importance of “dispatchable” power. Of course, imported electricity, on which wind-leader Denmark relies heavily, is an alternative to dispatchable power. However, that option is less than optimal from economic growth and energy security standpoints.
This real-life Spider-Man, seen on a Vineyard Wind turbine blade, is Tyler Paton. Tyler is an independent composite specialist who inspects and repairs blades on site. The Nantucket Current shared these images on X.
We sent our drone up to get a better look at what remains of the damaged blade on one of GE Vernova’s Haliade-X turbines at the Vineyard Wind lease area 15 miles southwest of Nantucket: pic.twitter.com/yynXpsunCv
In the wake of last week’s lackluster Atlantic wind lease auction (summarized above), an excellent Renewable Energy World article documents the sharp decline in participation and bidding since the massive February 2022 sale of 6 leases offshore NY and NJ. That sale garnered bids ranging from $285 million to an astounding $1.1 billion, with total high bids of $4.37 billion! The sale was touted as the “nation’s highest grossing competitive energy lease sale in history.” The extravagant bidding, which made little sense then, seems downright irrational now.
Even the December 2022 California offshore lease sale, where development will be dependent on more expensive floating turbines, attracted substantially higher bids for leases (5) smaller than those auctioned last week.
The highly promoted Gulf of Mexico wind auctions were busts with the first sale receiving only one bid for $6.5 million and the second being cancelled due to lack of interest.
Major oil companies like bp and Shell seem to have exited the market for new US offshore wind leases. That leaves Equinor (2/3 Norwegian govt ownership) as the only major oil company pursuing US offshore wind leases.
“Today’s lease sale reflects the forward momentum we are seeing to power millions of American homes with clean energy and create good-paying, climate jobs,” said White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi. “With nine commercial-scale projects approved in the last three years and more to go, we are using every available tool to grow the American offshore wind industry as we strengthen the nation’s power grid and tackle the climate crisis.”
As the above examples illustrate, turbine blade failures, like the Vineyard Wind incident near Nantucket, are not unique to GE Vernova. GE’s rivals, Siemens Gamesa and Vestas, have also experienced serious quality control issues.
Per ReviewEconomy (2023), “Unexpected and increasing wind turbine failure rates, largely in newer and bigger models, are savaging the profits of some of the world’s biggest manufacturers, as Siemens Gamesa, GE and Vestas report heavy repair and maintenance losses.”
In light of the manufacturing challenges, all 3 companies report increased emphasis on quality control. Why has quality control to date been inadequate and how will the past problems be corrected?
Has the wind industry’s sense of entitlement, as evidenced in their tax credit, rate increase, and departure expectations, affected their safety and quality culture? Has industry and governmental wind energy promotion rushed development and compromised design and fabrication decisions? It’s time for wind developers, manufacturers, and regulators to make sure their priorities are in order.
Hercate lease request – C & D. Wind areas that were considered for 2nd GoM sale – I, J, & K. Active RWE lease – blue.
GoM wind leasing update:
BOEM’s highly promoted 2023 GoM wind sale was a bust. The sole bidder, the German company RWE, acquired a single lease.
BOEM’s second GoM wind sale failed to get off the ground. Because only one company expressed interest in participating, that sale has been cancelled.
BOEM is now surveying interest in other GoM areas as a result of an unsolicited lease request from Hercate Energy.
If BOEM does not receive competing indications of interest, they may (and probably will) issue a noncompetitive lease to Hecate.
BOEM calls Hercate an “industry leader.” However, per their website, Hecate is mainly a solar energy company with only 2 wind projects. Both of those wind projects are onshore (Kentucky), and are “in development” (i.e. not yet operating). Hercate is no doubt a fine company, but have they demonstrated the technical expertise and financial strength needed for offshore wind development?
BOEM’s aggressive wind leasing policy stands in stark contrast to their current oil and gas policy. Not a single oil and gas sale will be held in 2024. Were it not for a provision in the “Inflation Reduction Act,” the last 3 GoM sales (257, 259, and 261) would probably not have occurred.
The new 5 year oil and gas leasing plan confirms that the Dept. of the Interior (DOI) has no intention of fulfilling their statutory oil and gas leasing mandate. In announcing the new 5 year plan, DOI boasted that the plan includes the fewest sales (3) of any plan in the history of the program. DOI strongly implied that the only reason those 3 sales were included was to sustain the wind program.,
When we drafted the OCSLA amendments that authorize offshore wind leasing, we envisioned complementary and synergistic programs, not a dogmatic pro-wind bias. As experts like Daniel Yergin have repeatedly warned, the notion that wind energy can eliminate the need for oil and gas is pure folly.
Illustration credit: Kellen Riell / The New Bedford LightGlauconite has been identified within the boundaries of lease areas marked with green. Credit: Kellen Riell / The New Bedford Light
Anastasia Lennon has published several informative articles in the New Bedford Light on the challenges posed by the presence of glauconite on North Atlantic wind leases. The above illustrations explain those challenges and identify where glauconite has been found to date. Per her latest article:
Preliminary geotechnical analysis for New England Wind, an Avangrid project, showed a risk of turbine pile foundation refusal in 50 of nearly 130 turbine locations, or about 40%, according to 2023 records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request.
The mineral’s behavior poses a “significant risk” to offshore wind development, said BOEM, the federal regulator of offshore wind, in a paper last year.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 