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Four of the five simpler, safer, greener deepwater platforms featured on this blog are now producing. The 5th platform (Whale) is on location and scheduled to begin production later this year.

platformoperatorfirst production
King’s QuayMurphyApril 2022
VitoShellFeb 2023
ArgosbpApril 2023
AnchorChevronAug 2024
WhaleShelllate 2024

These platforms are in 4000 to 8600′ of water, are expected to reach peak production rates of 100-150,000 boe/day, and have favorable emissions characteristics on a per barrel basis.

This is all good, but what is next? Will technological advances once again sustain GoM production? The short answer appears to be yes!

The efficiencies achieved with the simpler platform designs combined with the high pressure (>15,000 psi) technology developed over the past 2 decades will facilitate production from the highly prospective Paleogene (Wilcox) deepwater fans. (For those interested in learning more about the geology, see the excellent presentation by Dr. Mike Sweet, Univ. of Texas, that is embedded below.)

Chevron’s Anchor is the first deepwater, high-pressure development. Three similar deepwater hub platforms (table below) will begin production over the next 5 years. These host platforms will also facilitate additional production from nearby fields. Each will have production capacities of approximately 100,000 boe/day. Note the long lead times in achieving first production given the technological issues that had to be evaluated and addressed.

platformoperatordiscovery datefirst production
Kaskidabp20062029
SpartaShell20122028
ShenandoahBeacon20092025

Wood Mackenzie sees these high pressure projects as the key to sustaining GoM production rates. Their projections for 2024 and 2025 seem optimistic based on 2024 YTD data, which adds to the importance of the projected new production.

Related: Movin’ on up to 20,000 psi BOP equipment

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BOE Honor Roll criteria:

  • Must average <0.3 incidents of noncompliance (INCs) per facility-inspection.
  • Must average <0.1 INCs per inspection-type. (Note that each facility-inspection may include multiple types of inspections (e.g. production, pipeline, pollution, Coast Guard, site security, etc). On average, each facility-inspection included 3.3 types of inspections in 2023. Here is a list of the types of inspections that may be performed.
  • Must operate at least 3 production platforms and have drilled at least one well (i.e. you need operational activity to demonstrate compliance and safety achievement).
  • May not have a disqualifying event (e.g. fatal or life-threatening incident, significant fire, major oil spill). Due to the extreme lag in updates to BSEE’s incident tables, district investigations and media reports are used to make this determination.
platforms2023 well starts2023 (10 mos.) oil prod. (million bbls)2023 (10 mos.) gas prod. (bcf)
Anadarko10116660
BP71110565
Cantium961056
Chevron8106739
Eni31613
Hess331836
LLOG1072535
Murphy744257
QuarterNorth911323
Shell2020141140

Also noteworthy:

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  • Biggest prize at the holiday party went to Anadarko: Mississippi Canyon 389 – 5 bids, $25.5 million high bid
  • Biggest holiday shopping spree: Shell’s 65 high bids accounted for 24% of the sale’s high bids (excluding CCS bids).
  • Big spender award: Hess – $88.3 million on only 20 high bids. Does Chevron approve? 😀
  • Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi, Oi, Oi: Strong performance by Woodside. 18 high bids, $24.8 million
  • Heia Norge!: Equinor continues to shine in the GoM! 13 high bids, $20.6 million
  • Spirit of America award to Red Willow Offshore which is owned by the Southern Ute tribe. 22 high bids!
  • Deepwater independents for (energy) independence: Beacon, Murphy, LLOG, Kosmos, Talos, Houston Energy, Ridgewood, QuarterNorth, Alta Mar, CSL, CL&F, and Westlawn
  • Smart shelf shoppers: Arena, Byron, Focus, Cantium
  • Even pace wins the race: Another solid lease sale for bp – 24 high bids.
  • So happy together 😀: Chevron and Hess combined for 48 high bids, $114 million
  • Coal in their stockings? Repsol (Sale 261) and Exxon (Sales 257 and 259) made up their own rules for acquiring carbon dumping leases. Perhaps some solid carbon in their Christmas stockings would be appropriate.
  • Christmas in July?: A lease sale in 2024 is needed. Sometime near the 4th of July holiday would be good. It’s up to you Congress!

Holiday greetings to our friends around the world!

Stocking stuffer for that special person! 😉

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This is presumably due to the new production at Vito and Argos. Will we see 2 million bopd again? Perhaps later this year or next, but production increases are unlikely beyond that given the current state of the offshore leasing program. You can’t efficiently develop and supplement new discoveries without consistent, predictable leasing.

Shell Vito under tow to the Mississippi Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico.

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Pictured: Transocean’s Deepwater Proteus. T/O should name one of their drillships Deepwater Diligence 😉

Seven of the deepwater exploratory wells drilled in the Gulf of Mexico in 2023 (YTD) were spudded within 4.5 years of the effective date of their leases. Three of these wells were spudded within 3 years of their lease effective dates (see table below).

These are impressive achievements when you consider the time required for consultation with partners (if any) and contractors, site surveys, exploration plan development and approval, well planning, and drilling permit preparation and approval.

The subject wells accounted for 28% of the deepwater exploratory well starts in 2023 (25 net YTD wells after subtracting restarts at the same location).

date lease
effective
spud dateelapsed time
(months)
water
depth (ft)
operator
3/1/20218/27/2023306498Shell
8/1/20205/21/2023342211Talos
8/1/20203/15/2023313338Talos
12/1/20196/5/2023424228Chevron
11/1/20196/1/2023434603Hess
7/1/20197/11/2023487486Kosmos
12/1/20186/6/2023544127bp

Below are the exploration plan (EP) and permit (APD) approval timeframes for these 7 wells. With the exception of the Kosmos EP which required a number of modifications, the regulator actions appear to have been timely. For the bp, Shell, and Chevron wells, only 4-6 months elapsed between EP submittal and APD approval.

operatorblockdate EP
received
date EP
approved
APD
received
APD
approved
ShellWR 3653/1/20235/17/20235/11/20238/8/2023
TalosGC 781/19/20214/16/20213/8/20235/26/2023
TalosMC 1624/1/20227/13/20228/2/20223/2/2023
ChevronMC 93712/7/20225/19/20234/21/20235/21/2023
HessMC 7278/30/202211/3/202212/21/20224/24/2023
KosmosKC 9641/3/202010/12/20224/18/20237/3/2023
bpGC 4361/18/20234/14/20233/29/20236/5/2023
Notes: EP=Exploration Plan, APD=Application for Permit to Drill, WR=Walker Ridge, GC=Green Canyon, MC=Mississippi Canyon, KC=Keathley Canyon

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In the wake of the disappointing Gulf of Mexico wind sale and Orsted’s recent financial announcement, Equinor and bp have requested a massive increase in the price of electricity to be generated at Empire Wind 1, Empire Wind 2, and Beacon Wind (see map above).

According to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, this would result in an average 54% price hike across their portfolio. The strike prices would rise from $118.38 to $159.64/MWh for Empire Wind 1, from $107.50 to $177.84/MWh for Empire Wind 2, and from $118.00 to $190.82/MWh for Beacon Wind.

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Newfoundlander Howard Pike shared this interesting video.

BP’s Ephesus well – why was it a failure?

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As previously posted, 14 of the 244 (not counting the 69 CCS bids) Sale 259 high bids were rejected. BOEM has published their bid evaluations for all of the tracts, and the 14 rejections are listed below.

lease #blockhigh bid ($)BOEM MROV ($)no. of bids
G37496DC 6222,101,8369,100,0001
G37515GC 173307,1071,300,0001
G37534GC 5471,783,49812,000,0001
G37538GC 5911,291,9935,200,0001
G37543GC 642605,5053,400,0001
G37548GC 777583,1034,200,0001
G37562AT 51,551,1304,700,0003
G37565AT 133607,1072,600,0001
G37616KC 745707,7773,600,0001
G37617KC 789707,7772,100,0001
G37647WR 750724,7443,500,0001
G37646WR 794724,7443,200,0001
G37648WR 795774,2425,000,0001
G37649WR 796774,2424,000,0001
MROV – Mean of the Range-of-Value

Observations:

  • Keathley Canyon (KC) Block 96, the tract receiving the highest bid in the entire sale ($15,911,947 by Chevron), had a BOEM MROV of only $576,000. Clearly, Chevron and the government have a very different view of the value of this tract. BP was the second bidder for KC 96, and their bid ($4,003,103) was also considerably higher than BOEM’s MROV. This one will very interesting to follow.
  • The only bid that was rejected in Sale 257 was the BP/Talos bid of $1.8 million for Green Canyon Block 777. BOEM’s MROV in the Sale 257 evaluations was $4.4 million. BP again bid on GC 777 in Sale 259, but their bid was only $583,000 (even though BOEM’s Sale 257 evaluation was public information). BOEM’s MROV was reduced only slightly to $4.2 million, and they again rejected BP’s bid. We’ll see what happens in the next sale.
  • 51 of the 230 accepted bids were >$1 million, all for deepwater tracts. All of the rejected bids were for deepwater tracts, and a higher percentage (4/14) were >$1 million. This makes sense given that the higher potential prospects are in deepwater.
  • These results demonstrate again that resource evaluation is far from an exact science. BOEM is not selling barrels of oil and cubic feet of gas. BOEM is evaluating prospects, and companies are bidding on the opportunity to explore these prospects.
  • Bidding strategies differ; the more companies participating, the better the long-term prospects for the OCS program.

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This is a surprisingly high number of rejections given that only one Sale 257 bid was rejected and all 69 of the carbon sequestration bids were accepted (even though such bidding was not authorized).

Specifics on the Sale 259 rejections have not yet been posted, but one of the rejections was bp’s bid for Green Canyon Block 777. This is not terribly surprising given that the bp/Talos GC 777 bid was the sole Sale 257 rejection, and bp’s sale 259 bid was less than 1/3 of their Sale 257 bid.

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There are a number of recent articles related to the Guyana Supreme Court ruling on Exxon’s financial assurance obligations. An Oil Now piece (quoted below) is the most informative. It seems that the Supreme Court decision is based on a provision of Exxon’s EPA permit and that EPA is siding with Exxon in this dispute.

The Guyana government and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are set to appeal a recent Guyana Supreme Court ruling that determined that the EPA and ExxonMobil affiliate, Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited (EEPGL), breached the terms of the Liza 1 environmental permit. The permit was revised and granted to EEPGL last year for operations in the Stabroek Block, offshore Guyana.

Justice Sandil Kissoon granted several declarations, including that the EPA failed to enforce compliance by EEPGL of its Financial Assurance obligations to provide an unlimited Parent Company Guarantee Agreement and/or Affiliate Company Guarantee Agreement to indemnify and keep indemnified the EPA and the Government of Guyana against all environmental obligations of the Permit Holder (EEPGL) and Co-Venturers (Hess and CNOOC) within the Stabroek Block.

While acknowledging the court’s ruling, the Government of Guyana, as a major stakeholder, maintained in a statement that the Environmental Permit imposes no obligation on the Permit Holder to provide an unlimited Parent Company Guarantee Agreement and/or Affiliate Company Guarantee Agreement. The government believes that Justice Kissoon erred in his findings and that the ruling could have significant economic and other impacts on the public interest and national development.

OIlNow

Unlimited liability is a rather daunting and open-ended obligation that would trouble permittees in any industry.

In the US, the liability for oil spill cleanup costs is unlimited for offshore facilities, but there is a liability cap for the resulting damages. That cap is currently $167.8 million after a recent inflation adjustment. BP, of course, paid far more than that for damages associated with the Macondo blowout. BP’s costs, which amounted to an astounding $61.6 billion, were both voluntary and compulsory as a result of agreements and settlements. Keep in mind that the damage liability limit was only $75 million at the time. One can imagine what would have happened if a company with less financial strength or more inclination to fight had been responsible for the spill.

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