December 2025 Gulf oil production had to average 1.993 million bopd for 2025 to match the 2019 record. It exceeded that mark by 0.003 million bopd. However, October and November production were revised slightly downward resulting in a near dead heat annual average.
A closer look at the numbers (table below) shows that 2025 edged 2019 by a mere 250 bopd. Amazing!
Major caveat: The Nov and Dec 2025 figures will likely be revised slightly when EIA releases the next update at the end of January. Fingers crossed!😀
Per Baker Hughes, the latest (2/20/2026) Gulf of America rig count (2/20/2026) slipped to 9. The count was 10 the previous week and 12 a year ago. In 2023 and 2024, the BH rig count was a more healthy 15-20.
8 of the 9 rigs currently drilling are at high potential deepwater locations: 3 in the Mississippi Canyon Area, 3 in Green Canyon, 1 in Walker Ridge, and 1 in Alaminos Canyon. One rig was drilling on the shelf in the Eugene Island Area.
Per MMS data,the active Gulf rig count in 2001 was 148. The 2001 count was not a one year blip; the number of rigs active in the Gulf exceeded 100 for the ten year period from 1994-2003.
Although drilling and production have become more efficient with improved exploration technology, modern well completion practices, high pressure/temperature equipment, and enhanced recovery programs, drilling activity must still be sufficient to replace reserves and sustain production over the longer term.
2025 may have been a record production year for the Gulf; we’ll find out at the end of this week. However, that level of production is not sustainable without increased drilling activity.
The EIA (chart below) is forecasting another banner year for Gulf oil production in 2026. However, they are pointing to a decline in 2027, when new production is not anticipated to be sufficient to offset natural declines. The decline in production is likely to continue beyond 2027 absent increased drilling.
BH rig count criteria: To be counted as active a rig must be on location and be drilling or ‘turning to the right’ for 4 out of 7 days during a week. A rig is considered active from the moment the well is ‘spudded’ until it reaches target depth or “TD”. Rigs that are in transit, rigging up, or being used in non-drilling activities such as workovers, completions, or production testing, are NOT counted as active.
In 2025, NRW/Array operations accounted for 486 incidents of non-compliance (INCs), 36.2% of the Gulf of America total. Array and NRW had INC/facility inspection rates of 2.1 and 7.0 respectively, well above the Gulf average of 0.42 and the top performers’ rates of 0.05 to 0.13.
In Array’s defense, their violations declined sharply in the second half of 2025. However, the number of inspections of their facilities declined even more sharply, so the INCs/facility inspection ratio actually increased in the second half.
For the 2025 data in the table below:W=warning, CSI=component shut-in, FSI=facility shut-in. The 3 numbers for Array in each box are full year 2025 data (top), first half 2025 (middle), and second half 2025 (bottom)
operator
W
CSI
FSI
total INCs
Facility Insp.
INCs/isp
Array
352 311 41
93 46 47
6 6 0
451 363 88
218 184 34
2.1 2.0 2.6
NRW
10
24
1
35
5
7.0
Three other companies had more than 10 shelf platforms and INC/facility inspection ratios >1.0: Greyhound Energy (23 platforms), Renaissance (21 platforms) and Sanare Energy (38 platforms).
operator
W
CSI
FSI
total INCs
facility insp
INCs/ fac. insp
Greyhound Energy
32
1
0
33
23
1.4
Renaissance Offshore
26
19
3
47
44
1.1
Sanare Energy
60
20
2
82
75
1.1
The table below provides 2025 oil and gas production through Oct (with Gulf of America rank) for the 5 companies mentioned in this post. In determining rankings, subsidiaries and affiliates were counted as a single company (e.g. Chevron, Unocal, and Hess counted as one company).
No bids were accepted during BBG1’s Phase 1 review. This means that none of the tracts receiving bids were determined to be nonviable as was the case for the 199 tracts that were improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes in Sales 257, 259, and 261. (Unsurprisingly, neither of the acquiring companies has submitted an exploration plan for any of these CCS leases. The leases will likely expire without activity. Much to the dismay of the large and diverse group of opponents, the carbon disposal industry is focusing on onshore locations along the Gulf Coast.)
The 2025 Gulf of America Safety Compliance Leaders are ranked below according to the number of incidents of non-compliance (INCs) per facility inspection. To be ranked, a company must:
operate at least 2 production platforms
have drilled at least 2 wells during the year
average <1 INC for every 5 facility inspections (0.20 INCs/facility inspection). This is a higher standard (fewer INCs) than in previous years.
average <1 INC for every 10 inspections (0.1 INCs/inspection). Note that each facility inspection may include multiple types of inspections (e.g. production, pipeline, pollution, Coast Guard, site security, etc). In 2025, there were on average 3.2 inspections for every facility inspection.
operator
W
CSI
FSI
total INCs
facility insp
INCs/ fac insp
insp
INCs/ insp
Shell
3
8
1
12
231
0.05
557
0.02
Chevron
10
8
0
18
260
0.07
772
0.02
Oxy
2
6
1
9
133
0.07
325
0.03
BP
8
2
0
10
122
0.08
304
0.03
Murphy
6
2
0
8
70
0.11
177
0.05
Cantium
5
7
4
16
121
0.13
488
0.03
Gulf-wide 2025
815
445
84
1344
3179
0.42
10218
0.13
Gulf-wide 2024
957
398
109
1464
3133
0.47
10664
0.14
Notes: Numbers are from published BSEE data; INC=incident of non-compliance; W=warning INC; CSI=component shut-in INC; FSI=facility shut-in INC; INCs/fac insp= INCs issued per facility inspection; each facility-inspection may include multiple types of inspections (e.g. production, pipeline, pollution, Coast Guard, site security, etc), in 2025, there were on average 3.2 inspections for every facility inspection
Criteria: This ranking is based solely on BSEE’s published compliance data. The absence of timely public information on safety incidents (e.g. injuries, fires, pollution, gas releases, property damage) precludes inclusion of these data. Although Panel Investigations are conducted for fatalities, serious injuries, and significant pollution events, the last panel report was for an incident on 3/25/2022, and no information is available for any ongoing investigations. BSEE District offices investigate the more significant incidents that don’t qualify for panel investigations. These District Investigation reports are more timely, but some are not issued within 90 days of the incident. The District reports will be reviewed later in the year. Note that there were no occupational fatalities in 2025.
Observations:
The overall inspection and INC results for 2025 were similar to those for 2024.
The top companies performed better in 2025 than in 2024. In 2024, only 2 companies had INC/facility inspection ratios of <0.10 and only 3 had ratios <0.15. In 2025, all 6 of the performance leaders had ratios <0.15.
Shell’s total INCs and INCs/facility inspection decreased by 73% and 78% respectively vs. 2024
Cantium, which operates 85 shallow water platforms, has demonstrated that a shelf operator can be an outstanding safety performer. Cantium’s total INCs and INCs/facility inspection decreased by 50% vs. 2024
Should fewer inspections be conducted at facilities that have such low INC rates? On the one hand, fewer inspections would reduce regulatory costs and transportation risks. On the other hand, there are benefits from BSEE inspection visits besides compliance enforcement. These include direct communication with offshore workers (including contractors) regarding regulatory policies and safety practices, witnessing safety tests, evaluating new technology, and assessing management system implementation and corporate culture at the facility level.
Absent specific details on the violations, no attempt was made to weight the INCs. Although shut-in INCs are generally considered to be more significant than warnings, that is not always the case. For example, a component shut-in INC for a safety device that is marginally out of tolerance and is corrected on the spot may be less serious than a warning that is indicative of structural deterioration, poor maintenance, or organizational shortcomings.
Not meeting one of the activity level requirements, but nonetheless noteworthy, were the compliance records of LLOG and BOE Exploration & Production (younger than and unrelated to the BOE blog 😀). See their impressive results below:
“We have not been finding enough new fields.” That’s William DeMis, president of Richelle Court, LLC, who said that, in addition to not finding enough, we keep erecting new ways to export what we’re not finding.
The way, he said, to avert the coming shortage is for people to find new sources of gas outside of Haynesville field, which for years, considering its proximity to the Gulf Coast, and the petrochemical plants of Southwest Louisiana, as well as pipelines, made it a swing producer for natural gas.
“But I can tell you from bitter experience over the last three years that finding people to fund greenfield exploration is darn near impossible. There is scant capital to drill natural gas wildcats in the U.S.” said DeMis.
Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data for November 2025 are scheduled for release on Friday, February 6, 2026.
The U.S. Census Bureau will release trade data (both imports and exports) for November 2025 on Thursday, January 29, 2026. As a result, we will delay release of PSM data for November 2025 from the original scheduled release date of January 30, 2026, until Friday, February 6, 2026. The delayed PSM release will allow us time to incorporate export data for November 2025.
Next week, BOE will rank the 2025 Gulf of America Safety Compliance Leaders according to the number of incidents of non-compliance (INCs) per facility inspection.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 