The table below compares the pre-sale stats for BBG3 with those for BBG1 and 2. The number of BBG3 bids, while well below BBG1, which was the first sale in 2 years, bounced nicely from BBG2 levels.
Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale BBG2 will be held tomorrow. The Notice of Sale is attached.
Although Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1) was rather lackluster, BBG 2 is unlikely to match it in terms of the number of bids and their sum. Prior to BBG1, there had been no lease sale for two years. BBG 2 is being held only 3 months later.
Given the short duration between sales, the bid evaluations for BBG1 are not yet completed. However, the sale notice advises that any block which received a bid in BBG1 is excluded from BBG2.
Will the recent increase in oil prices influence bidding? Probably not given the longer term nature of offshore development and expectations that the current price spike will be of short duration. Onshore shale oil production is more responsive to price fluctuations.
No bids were accepted during BBG1’s Phase 1 review. This means that none of the tracts receiving bids were determined to be nonviable as was the case for the 199 tracts that were improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes in Sales 257, 259, and 261. (Unsurprisingly, neither of the acquiring companies has submitted an exploration plan for any of these CCS leases. The leases will likely expire without activity. Much to the dismay of the large and diverse group of opponents, the carbon disposal industry is focusing on onshore locations along the Gulf Coast.)
Leslie Beyer, Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management (ASLM), has stepped down from her post as the leader of the Dept of the Interior’s offshore energy programs. She was the senior official at this month’s BGG1 lease sale, and made strong remarks about the importance of the offshore oil and gas program. Ms. Beyer was confirmed by the Senate in September.
Lanny Erdos, Director, Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement, has been named Acting ASLM.
This leaves the offshore energy program without a confirmed Asst. Secretary and with Acting Directors at both BOEM (Matthew Giacona) and BSEE (Kenny Stevens).
BOEM informs (post below) that Wednesday’s BBG1 oil and gas lease sale will be streamed live here at 10 AM ET. Given that this is the first sale in two years and the first BBG sale, some dignitaries may be in attendance.
On December 10, we will host the Big Beautiful Gulf 1 oil and gas lease sale, our first under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
In JPMorgan’s view, the stage is set for a potential decline of as much as 50% in oil prices through the end of 2027, taking Brent crude down to the low $30s per barrel range from its current level of around $63.50.
Will bearish forecasts by JPMorgan and others temper bidding at the highly anticipated, and long awaited, Gulf lease sale to be held on 12/10/2025? Probably not for these reasons:
Given the longer term nature of deepwater development, production will not begin for years following lease issuance. Note that anticipated first production for 3 new high-pressure deepwater projects, Kaskida, Sparta, and Tiber, will be 23, 16, and 21 years after the field discovery dates.
To the extent that price forecasts are reliable at all (see no. 9 in the image below), the degree of uncertainty for longer term forecasts is particularly high.
The sale has to live up to its name Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1). 😉
The first ever Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale 😉 will be held on Dec. 10, 2025. Instead of numbering the sale sequentially (i.e. Sale 262), the sale has been designated OCS Oil and Gas One Big Beautiful Bill Act Lease Sale 1 (BBG1). 🙄 This change is a bit too cute for some of us old-timers, but we’ll judge the sale by its results, not its name.
The Notice of Sale is attached. The terms are very attractive, with the lowest allowable royalty rate (1/8th) on all shelf and deepwater leases. Note the comparison of royalty rates in the table below. The 6.25% difference for deepwater leases is substantial when you consider their high production potential.
Gulf Sale No.
Date
% royalty: <200m water depth
% royalty: >200m water depth
256
11/18/2020
12.5
18.75
257
11/17/2021
12.5
18.75
258
12/30/2022
18.75
18.75
259
3/29/2023
18.75
18.75
261
12/20/2023
18.75
18.75
BBG1
12/10/2025
12.5
12.5
The rental rates for the BBG1 Sale are also very attractive compared to Sale 261:
Water Depth
Sale 261 rental rates ($/ac)
BBG1 Sale rental rates ($/ac)
0 to <200m
years 1-5: $10 year 6: $20 year 7: $30 year 8+: $40
years 1-5: $7 year 6: $14 year 7: $21 year 8+: $28
200 to <400m
years 1-5: $16 year 6: $32 year 7: $48 year 8+: $64
years 1-5: $11 year 6: $22 year 7: $33 year 8+: $44
400+ m
years 1-5: $16 year 6: $22 year 7: $22 year 8+: $22
years 1-5: $11 year 6: $16 year 7: $16 year 8+: $16
Will the bidding reflect the very favorable lease terms?