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15 Sept 2021: The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy received applications from 31 companies in connection with the announcement of Allocation in Predefined Areas (APA) 2021. The Ministry’s announcement includes some good lessons on resource management:

It is gratifying that the oil companies still see good opportunities on the Norwegian shelf. Exploration is important for maintaining activity and good resource management, and it lays the foundation for value creation and safe jobs throughout the country, says Minister of Petroleum and Energy Tina Bru.

Predictability about which areas it is possible to apply for in APA and regular replenishment of new area is important to achieve an effective exploration. APA rounds are therefore conducted annually.

Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

I was saddened to learn that the National Academy of Sciences is selling the Jonsson Center in Woods Hole, MA. This amazing meeting and conference facility is at a great waterfront location at the epicenter of marine research on the Atlantic Coast. You can buy the estate for a mere $27.5 million and continue its use as a conference center serving the marine science and policy communities.

“I think the concern is this is a historically important location for science, from its long history with the institutions,” said Dr. Saito. “To see one of our science institutions pack up and leave is sad for the community. Also, the loss of that conference facility, which I think is a really valuable resource for not just the area but for US science, is a sad thing to see happen as well.”

Makoto Saito, WHOI
Election Results 2021: Norway Set for New Prime Minister - Life in Norway

While Conservative Party leader Erna Solberg will no longer be Prime Minister, her likely replacement, Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre, seems to be a moderate on energy issues:

“I believe that calling time on our oil and gas industry is the wrong industrial policy and the wrong climate policy,” Stoere told reporters.

KFGO

Monday’s result means Labour neither needs the Marxist Red Party nor the anti-oil Green Party to rule, thus lessening the pressure for big shifts.

“Labour will not make any dramatic changes to the oil industry,” said Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, an energy analyst at Sparebank 1 Markets.

EuroNews

BOEM just released their update of Gulf of Mexico OCS oil and gas reserves as of 12/31/2019. Oil reserves increased by 35.2% as a result of 6 new fields being added.

The reserve additions are necessary and welcome given the high depletion rates from 2002 to 2018 when reserves (plotted above) declined steeply while production rates held steady or increased. The concerns about the sustainability of current GoM production rates, as expressed in our 7/26/2021 post, remain given the historically low levels of exploratory drilling. For the reasons presented in that post, our view is that the importance of GoM production will increase, not decrease, over the next decade.

BSEE data

Vineyard Windmap 9 10 19 01

Washington, D.C. (9/13/2021) — Responsible Offshore Development Alliance (RODA), a broad membership-based coalition of fishing industry associations and fishing companies, filed a Petition for Review today in the First Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals regarding the Secretary of the Interior’s July 15, 2021 decision approving the Vineyard Wind 1 offshore wind energy project. This action is the culmination of many years of conscientious participation by fisheries professionals only to see their expertise and value summarily ignored by decision-makers during the leasing process.

The RODA statement is quite strong. While the new administration understandably wants to advance offshore wind development, they would have been wise to accept input from RODA and other interested parties before approving Vineyard Wind I. The fishing industry certainly has a legitimate interest in the outcome of this and other offshore wind projects.

A group of Nantucket residents had already sued BOEM over concerns about the endangered North Atlantic Right Whale. Concerns have also been expressed about the wind farm’s proximity to shore:

Fifteen miles was not OK in North Carolina or Long Island; then why is it OK for Nantucket? It’s just wrong.

David Stevenson, Caesar Rodney Institute
May be an image of monument, outdoors and text

and they will presumably do so with an emergency final rule. This will be interesting. Over-under on the days until publication? Number of public comments?

And since the Coast Guard functions as OSHA on the Outer Continental Shelf, will they be enforcing the offshore industry’s compliance with this mandate? BSEE inspectors?

Mexico Map

As I understand it:

  1. The Zama field, with estimated reserves of ~700 million barrels, has a common reservoir that underlies Talos Block 7 and a contiguous Pemex block.
  2. Talos drilled the discovery well and 3 delineation wells. Pemex has not drilled a well.
  3. The companies were unable to concur on the terms of a unit agreement.
  4. A third party study for the purpose of initial tract participation, determined that Pemex has a 50.4% share of the reserves. Talos has criticized this study. A previous study had determined that the Talos group has 59.6% of the reserves.
  5. On July 2, 2021, the Mexican Ministry of Energy (SENER) selected Pemex as operator. Talos is disputing that decision.

Thoughts:

  • One of the few energy policy mistakes that the US has not made is the formation of a national oil company. There have been attempts, most notably the 1975 Senate proposal to establish the Federal Oil and Gas Corporation or FOGCO. (I’m not making this up!).
  • When Mexico’s national oil company is one of the competitors, SENER shouldn’t be determining the unit operator. Instead, an arbitration or independent review process should be established.
  • Pemex appears to have been largely a Zama field passenger to date. The discovery well and all delineation wells were drilled by Talos. If the “rule of capture” applied, Talos would be proceeding with development and Pemex would be negotiating with very little leverage.
  • If Mexico wants to discourage foreign investment in their offshore sector, this is a good way to do it.

As expected given the magnitude and track of Ida, the necessary inspections, and the onshore damage, most GoM production remains shut-in. (BSEE data)