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Equinor diagram: power cables from shore to Johan Sverdrup field

“It’s an absolutely sh*t situation,” said Norway’s energy minister Terje Aasland reacting to electricity prices in the country that are six times that of the EU average.

The two ruling parties in Norway want to cut the two power inter-connectors that link the country with Denmark when they come up for renewal in 2026. The smaller coalition party, the Center Party, wants to revisit similar energy links with the UK and Europe.

A related matter is Norway’s push to power offshore platforms with electricity from shore. This policy makes neither economic nor environmental sense, and introduces new safety and operational risks.

This BOE post cites the obvious (per NPD): “The power from shore projects will lead to an increase in electricity prices in Norway.” The post also presents seven other reasons why powering those facilities from shore is not a good idea.

Meanwhile, Total’s plan to partially power the Culzean field (UK) with a floating turbine is similarly irrational. The scheme adds costs and risks with no apparent benefit.

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JL Daeschler, a BOE contributor, subsea engineer, and resident of Scotland, warned 11 years ago (see clip below) about the demise of North Sea infrastructure and the exit of important companies. JL now comments as follows:

“We have unfortunately taken down all the support facilities needed to conduct a complete offshore sequence – finding, engineering, and producing – even under a more favorable tax climate. We will have to call on Norway to do anything!”

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Northern Endurance Partnership (bp, Equinor, and Total) has been awarded the UK’s first permit to “store” CO2 beneath the North Sea. NEP plans to begin construction in the middle of 2025 with start-up expected in 2028 (bet the over!). Climate solution or costly virtue signaling at the public’s expense?

Fortunately, from the standpoint of US consumers and taxpayers, the push for carbon disposal in the Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico has stalled, perhaps permanently. Oct.1 marked the 2 year anniversary of the 94 leases improperly acquired by Exxon at Sale 257 for carbon disposal purposes. Those leases will expire in 33 months (with the remaining 105 rogue leases expiring 1-2 years later) barring another legislative maneuver by industry advocates.

All of the previously posted questions about carbon disposal in the Gulf of Mexico remain, and most apply elsewhere. In particular, detailed cost-benefit analyses and risk assessments for these projects have not been provided. The intended permanency of offshore, subsurface carbon disposal raises complex monitoring, maintenance, liability, and decommissioning issues.

What are the carbon disposal proponents selling and why should governments be buying? If CO2 emissions are a significant threat to society (and informed opinions differ), is carbon disposal a cost effective solution? Policy decisions on subsidies for carbon disposal will be a good indication of how serious the new administration is about cutting Federal spending.

199 GoM oil and gas leases were wrongfully acquired for carbon disposal purposes. At Sale 261, Repsol acquired 36 nearshore Texas tracts in the Mustang Island and Matagorda Island areas (red blocks at the western end of the map above). Exxon had acquired 163 nearshore Texas tracts (blue in map above) at Sales 257 (94) and 259 (69).

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The Beatrice Offshore Windfarm has become the fourth UK windfarm to have received more than £1 billion in subsidy payments. The landmark was reached in just its seventh year of operation, suggesting that it could reach £2 billion over the course of its subsidy agreement.

Block Island Wind Farm – “America’s Starting Five” (first 5 offshore turbines) – reliably generates subsidies (table below).

Projected PPA subsidies for other Atlantic wind projects:

Vom Winde verweht: Germany will pay as much as €20 billion to wind and solar operators through the end of 2024, twice what grid operators had forecast in last October.

Wind turbines in Lindenberg, Germany

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Hywind Scotland, Equinor

Equinor reports that all 5 Hywind turbines have been returned to service after being towed to Norway as part of a 4-month maintenance campaign.

Even though the turbines had only been in operation since 2017, Equinor puts a positive spin on the 4-month maintenance outage, declaring total victory:

“The successful completion of the maintenance campaign on Hywind Scotland is a testament to the collaborative efforts of our teams and partners. As the world’s first floating offshore wind farm, Hywind Scotland has demonstrated the immense potential of floating wind. Through this maintenance campaign, we’ve gained valuable insights that will help us refine maintenance practices and optimise this technology for the future. By sharing our learnings, we aim to contribute to the growth and development of the floating wind industry.”

Some of the folks in Scotland have a different take as evidenced in this video:

Meanwhile, the turbines planned for offshore Central California will also have to be towed to shore for major maintenance. Nearby harbor areas like Morro Bay (pictured below) would be overwhelmed by the large structures and the maintenance and repair operations. Central Coast residents are not enamored with “another attempt to industrialize the coast.” Towing the towers to LA/Long Beach, albeit rather distant from the leases, would seem to be the preferred option for such work.

Looking forward, the first power generation from floating wind turbines on the Central Coast is forecast for 2034. Betters may want to take the over!

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Given the absence of industry and government data on wind turbine incidents, Scotland Against Spin (SAS) has done yeoman’s work in filling the void. SAS gathers information from press reports and official releases. A PDF of the latest SAS update summary is attached. You can view their complete incident compilation (318 pages) here. Kudos to SAS for their diligence.

As good as their work has been, SAS acknowledges that their information is far from complete and may only represent the tip of the wind turbine incident iceberg. Per SAS:

  • In 2011, RenewableUK confirmed that there had been 1500 wind turbine incidents in the UK alone in the previous 5 years.
  • In July 2019, EnergyVoice reported a total of 81 cases where workers had been injured on UK windfarms since 2014. The SAS table includes only 15 of these incidents (<19%).
  • In February 2021, the industry publication Wind Power Engineering and Development admitted to 865 offshore accidents during 2019. SAS captured only 4 (<0.5%).
  • A 13 August 2018 publication by Power Technology reported 737 incidents from UK offshore windfarms during 2016 alone, with the majority occurring during operations rather than development. 44% of medical emergencies were turbine related. In comparison, only 4 UK offshore incidents are listed in the SAS data – equivalent to 0.5%.

    Lars Herbst had previously reported, based on the Wind Power article cited above, that “with an estimated 700,000 blades in operation globally, there are, on average, 3,800 incidents of blade failure each year.” Lars noted that the annual blade failure rate of about 0.5% translates to 1.5% of all operating wind turbines experiencing a blade failure every year, a remarkably high failure frequency.

    A sad irony is that one of the five operational Vineyard Wind turbines experienced a very impactful blade failure less than 5 months after the project had begun delivering a limited amount of power and government officials were patting themselves on their backs and declaring victory.

    “This marks a turning point in the clean energy transition. After many decades of advocacy, research, policymaking, and finally construction, America’s offshore wind industry has gone from a dream to reality,” said Governor Maura Healey. “Across Massachusetts, in 30,000 homes and businesses, when you turn on the light, you will now be using clean, affordable energy. This will make the air we breathe safer and healthier, save customers money, and bring us one step closer to achieving net-zero emissions.” 

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    See the video embedded below or view it here.

    Some of us are long-time observers of North Sea operations. Others like JL Daeschler are pioneers who were involved with North Sea exploration and development from the outset. It’s sad to see what is happening to the UK offshore industry.

    And for what purpose? Virtue signaling by politicians? Pandering to the international climate cartel? Shutting down North Sea production will have no measurable effect on our climate.

    Now that the entire U.S. Atlantic and Pacific, and nearly all of offshore Alaska, are closed to oil and gas leasing, the goal of some is to shut down the Gulf of Mexico. That intent is clear in the 5 year leasing plan that provides for a maximum of 3 sales, the fewest of any 5 year plan in the history of the US offshore program. This is really a 5 year moratorium, not a 5 year leasing plan.

    As noted in the post below, GoM production is 1.8 million bopd. BOEM’s reasonable forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 will not be achieved because of policy decisions, not resource limitations or technical capabilities.

    And shame on those who are attributing Hurricane Helene’s destruction to GHG emissions. This is uninformed opportunism at its worst.

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    floating turbine being positioned in Kincardine wind farm

    The 50 MW Kincardine Offshore Windfarm, which is billed as the “world’s largest floating wind farm,” experienced a £30 million loss in 2023 following a £18 million loss in 2022. The turbines are located 15 km off the coast of Aberdeenshire, in water depths ranging from 60 m to 80 m.

    The graphic below summarizes the 2023 financial results, which were even worse than those for the prior years of operation. For those who want more detail, I have attached the 2023 audited financial statement for the wind farm. You can also view audited statements for prior years.

    Although BOEM was forced to “postpone” the Oregon wind sale given the absence of bidders, opposition from tribes and county governments, and a last minute letter from the Governor (political cover?), California still seems to be all in on the development of the 5 deepwater wind leases in Federal waters.

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    Culzean facilities

    Total has announced plans to install a 3 MW floating wind turbine 2 km west of the Culzean platform, 220 km off the coast of Scotland. This turbine, expected to be fully operational by the end of 2025, will supply around 20% of Culzean’s power requirement. This project is interesting from an R&D standpoint, but makes little sense otherwise. Here’s why:

    • Culzean is a gas condensate field that is capable of meeting 5% of the UK’s gas demand. There is thus ample produced gas to reliably and economically power the platform.
    • Gas will be required to meet 80% of the power requirement even after the wind turbine is operating.
    • In light of installation, maintenance, and decommissioning costs for the floating turbine, the cost of the intermittent wind power will no doubt be much higher than the cost of the power generated by platform gas.
    • Some tax benefits may be associated with adding the wind turbine, but this won’t affect the real costs, other than to perhaps make them higher.
    • In addition to affecting profitability, higher operational costs could reduce the ultimate recovery of gas and condensate from the field.
    • Gas not consumed at the offshore facilities will be marketed and consumed onshore, so there is essentially no net reduction in global CO2 emissions.
    • As JL Daeschler reminds me, the floating turbine complicates operations and could create safety issues: obstruction for helicopters and supply boats to avoid, trenching and installing power cable in a spare “J” tube, and feeding power to an electrical distribution system in accordance with standards and platform specifications. As JL notes, “I think we have plenty to do offshore already!”
    • And what if there are mooring failures and the turbine drifts toward the platforms? Turbine blade failures?
    • Bottom line: adding costs and risks for no apparent benefit.

    See a related post on platform electrification in Norway.

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    Some of us remember the Brent Spar saga (1995). The subsequent Brent field decommissioning activities have been less controversial, including the removal of the Brent C topsides on July 9. The Allseas single lift technology is most impressive. Check out the video!

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