The EIA 2022 figure is spot-on, as it should be given that 10 months of 2022 production data are now in hand. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast (published in July) missed the mark considerably. (In fairness to BOEM staff, their work was probably completed months before publication pending internal reviews.)
Of greater concern, given the policy implications, is the rosy BOEM forecast for the out-years. Despite historically low levels of leasing and exploratory drilling, BOEM forecasts oil production to exceed 2 million BOPD through 2027 and to remain well above the current (2022) level through 2031 (second table below).
Offshore gas has important environmental advantages, particularly nonassociated gas-well gas (GWG). While the GoM production chart (below) is not pretty, there are signs that gas production may have bottomed and is slowly rising. This is largely due to growth in oil-well gas (OWG) associated with deepwater oil production.
A successful offshore program requires a mix of strategies, and it is encouraging that companies are still pursuing natural gas on the GoM shelf. The second chart (below), based on BOEM data, shows 2022 YTD (probably through Oct.) GWG production for the 11 companies that (1) produced more GWG than OWG and (2) produced more than 1 BCF of GWG.
Interestingly, 100% of the gas produced by Contango, Samchully, and Helis in 2022 was from gas wells. Contrast this with bp, the third largest GoM gas producer. None of bp’s gas production was from gas wells.
Liz is an experienced attorney and leader in clean energy, climate change, and environmental law and policy. A member of the Biden-Harris administration since January 20, 2021, Liz has served as Senior Counselor to Secretary Haaland with an emphasis on water policy and climate change resilience. In this role, Liz also served as Chair of the Indian Water Rights Working Group, which manages, negotiates and implements settlements of water rights claims.
Prior to joining the Administration, Liz was Deputy Director of the non-partisan State Energy & Environmental Impact Center at NYU School of Law, which supports state Attorneys General addressing clean energy, climate, and environmental initiatives of regional and national importance. President Biden is the third President under which Liz has served at Interior, having worked for both the Clinton and Obama administrations. Under Secretaries Ken Salazar and Sally Jewell, Liz served as Interior’s Associate Deputy Secretary as well as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Office of Policy, Management and Budget. She was a key architect of the Obama Administration’s work to create a new offshore wind industry and leasing program.
Congratulations to Ms. Klein on being appointed to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. In addition to her commendable support for offshore wind energy, I trust that she appreciates the national importance of the OCS oil and gas program and the need for regular lease sales.
Both discoveries are near the company’s Ram Powell platform, where future production will flow via subsea tiebacks.
The Lime Rock prospect was acquired in Lease Sale 256 in November of 2020.
The new discoveries will help sustain production at Ram Powell, an early tension leg platform that has produced more than 250 million boe.
Ram Powell was the deepest production facility in the world (water depth of 3216′) when it was installed by Shell in 1997.
Access to nearby resources through regular lease sales facilitates continued production from existing platforms, reducing costs and environmental impacts.
“Mom” (US govt) strongly and openly favors one child (offshore wind) over the other (offshore oil and gas). As a result, beneficial family synergy is not realized, and neither “child” reaches her full potential.
The wind program was intended to complement the oil and gas program, not replace it.
These articles highlight some of the challenges facing offshore wind:
WSJ: Soaring Costs Threaten U.S. Offshore-Wind Buildout
Bloomberg: US Ignored Own Scientists’ Warning in Backing Atlantic Wind Farm
NJ.com: Offshore wind is on N.J.’s horizon but activists worry of impact to whales, economy, the view
BOE an independent, unsponsored blog that is dedicated to offshore safety, pollution prevention, energy production, effective regulation, and responsible energy policy. If you would like to submit a post, leave a comment to that effect at any time.
More “free” oil was withdrawn from the SPR, which has sunk to the lowest level (375.1 million bbls) since Christmas 1983. More rational oil and gas leasing policies would have been a far better gift, particularly for our children and grandchildren.
Carbon-Zero US LLC of Dallas (a Cox Oil affiliate) has applied for up to $12 million in U.S. Department of Energy funds to develop a pilot sequestration hub in offshore storage fields about 20 miles from Grand Isle, according to officials from Cox Operating LLC, the Dallas operator that owns some of the storage fields.
Cox Operating LLC will “repurpose facilities and equipment” for the carbon storage project, according to a news release.
Should this company be authorized to repurpose Gulf of Mexico facilities for carbon sequestration?
Per BSEE Incident of Non-Compliance (INC) data for 2022, Cox had more component shut-in INCs (132) than any other company. Cox was second to the Fieldwood companies in the number of warning and facility shut-in INCs, and in the total number of INCs. 48% of the Cox INCs required either a component or facility shut-in.
Cox had an INC/facility-inspection ratio of 0.77, nearly 50% higher than the GoM average of 0.53.
Per the posted BSEE district investigation reports for 2022, Cox was responsible for 9 of the 30 incidents that were significant enough to require investigation. That is more than twice as many as any other company (next highest was 4).
The incidents included 3 serious injuries, 2 fires, a large gas leak, and oil spills of 114, 129, and 660 gallons. Per the posted reports, only one other company had an oil spill of >1 bbl. (Note: Only spills of > 1 bbl are routinely investigated by BSEE. One bbl = 42 gallons.)
While INCs were issued for only 3 of the 9 Cox incidents, a review of the reports suggests that INCs should have been issued for at least 4 of the other incidents.
Cox operates 375 platforms with installation dates as early as 1949. 134 of their platforms are > 50 years old. Only 66 were installed in the last 20 years and only 6 in the last 10 years (most recent December 2014). How will the carbon sequestration plans affect their massive decommissioning obligations?
Many of the Cox platforms were assigned by predecessor lessees. Those predecessors can only be held responsible for the decommissioning of facilities they installed, not for more recent wells or platforms and not for facilities that are repurposed for carbon sequestration.
Also, as noted in the discussion of Exxon’s 94 Sale 257 oil and gas leases, a competitively issued alternate use RUE is required (30 CFR § 585.1007) before sequestration operations may be conducted on an oil and gas lease.