MMA data as of noon ET today.
Archive for October, 2026
Isaias looks like a problem for the Eastern Gulf; 25% of oil production shut-in
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, tagged hurricanes, Isaias, oil production, shut-in production on October 7, 2026| Leave a Comment »
MMA reports some production has been shut-in as a result of Tropical Depression Invest 92L
Posted in Offshore Energy - General, Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, tagged Gulf of America, Invest 92L, production shut-in, tropical storm on October 6, 2026| Leave a Comment »
MMA estimates that approximately 9.24% of current Gulf of America oil production and 3.36% of natural gas production were shut-in as of 1130 CT today. No personnel had been evacuated.
More suspense for Sable watchers – 9th Circuit decision on Sable pipeline restart will be delayed by months.
Posted in California, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, pipelines, Regulation, tagged 9th circuit, delayed decision, Las Flores Canyon, pipeline, Sable Offshore, Santa Ynez Unit on October 6, 2026| Leave a Comment »
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit has not yet ruled on the merits of the challenge to PHMSA’s assertion of exclusive Federal jurisdiction over Sable Offshore Corp.’s Las Flores (Santa Ynez) pipeline segments (CA-324 and CA-325) or related restart approvals. A three-judge panel ordered additional briefing after a status conference, and a decision is expected to take months.
The 9th Circuit panel held a video status conference on 10/5/2026, and consolidated petitions from the Environmental Defense Center (and other groups) and the State of California. The panel ordered further briefing rather than issuing an immediate decision on the core jurisdictional question—whether the onshore pipeline segments engage in “interstate commerce” under the Pipeline Safety Act (making them subject to exclusive PHMSA authority rather than California’s Office of the State Fire Marshal).
Concise background summary from Grok: PHMSA reclassified the pipelines as interstate in late 2025 (asserting jurisdiction because they transport crude from Outer Continental Shelf platforms through California to a Kern County terminal, with arguments that onshore processing does not break the flow of interstate commerce). This enabled restart approvals and special permits (initially emergency, later a longer-term one) that environmental groups and California challenge as unlawful, preemptive of state authority, and deficient under the Pipeline Safety Act, NEPA, and ESA. Sable restarted operations earlier in 2026 amid related litigation (including Defense Production Act issues and consent-decree matters in district court). The Ninth Circuit cases are Environmental Defense Center et al. v. PHMSA (No. 25-8059) and the consolidated California petition (originally No. 26-508 / related Nos.).
Jon Yeomans, Sunday Times (UK): “As the world frets over diesel, we should really worry about gas”
Posted in energy policy, natural gas, tagged Alex Epstein, dispatchable power, intermittent energy, JL Daeschler, Jon Yeomans, natural gas, Winter Storm Fern on October 6, 2026| Leave a Comment »
This interesting Sunday Times (UK) piece was shared by JL Daeschler. A key point in the quote below is that you can’t neglect the gas (dispatchable energy) network when you increase the contribution of intermittent renewables.
When wind and solar generation are low, the nation switches on the gas — and in a big way. Take January 5 this year, when gas-fired generation jumped from 2.3GW to 26.1GW in the space of a day — enough to power 19 million homes. The upshot is that “less gas use doesn’t mean less gas network,” as one industry source puts it.
As Alex Epstein has frequently asserted “solar and wind aren’t real power sources, they’re intermittent fuel-savers.”
Winter Storm Fern (1/23-31/2026) affected much of the US stretching from the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast through the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Power demand surged, and solar and wind power generation were minimal. (Alex Epstein charts below)
Comments on the proposed revisions to the Arctic drilling regulations
Posted in Alaska, drilling, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, Regulation, well control incidents, tagged Arctic drilling, MMA, regulations, regulatory fragmentation, same season relief well, subsea isolation device, well control on October 5, 2026| Leave a Comment »
Comments on the proposed “Revisions to the Requirements for Exploratory Drilling on the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf” are due today.
My submission (one page) is attached. Main points:
- Removing the same-season-relief-well (SSRW) requirements is an essential precursor to the renewal of arctic drilling activity. The SSRW provisions make Arctic operations cost prohibitive while at the same time increasing safety and environmental risks.
- The potential risks and benefits of a subsea isolation device (SSID) should be assessed on a case-by-case basis considering water depth, temperature related BOP failure risks, wellhead integration, ice and vessel traffic exposure, and other factors.
- As is the case for floating drilling operations anywhere, the focus in the Arctic should be on well design, integrity, and control, including carefully verifying casing and cement integrity, ensuring complete barrier redundancy, and having standby capping and containment capability.
Sable production update and related news
Posted in California, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, Regulation, tagged 2025 Gulf of America oil production, AB 1448, MMA, Platform Hondo, Sable Offshore, Santa Ynez Unit on October 2, 2026| Leave a Comment »
Sable’s update includes production and sales information, but nothing about the pipeline anomalies. Summary:
- Platform Hondo modernization and operational commissioning are complete. (Hondo is the last of the 3 platforms to come online.)
- Sable anticipates Federal (MMA) approval of the Platform Hondo instrumentation, control, and safety commissioning this month.
- Each of Hondo’s 9 perforation additions (Perf Adds) are expected to add ~600 barrels of oil per day to the base well production at a cost of approximately $800,000 per operation.
- Completing the Los Flores Canyon (LFC) operational and facility upgrades ahead of the restart of Platform Hondo is expected to allow the flow of all SYU wells, maintain continuous operations and reduce downtime in Q4 2026.
- Sable’s preliminary estimate of oil sales during the months of July and August is approximately 32 thousand gross barrels of oil per day averaged over the two months, with September oil sales volumes expected to be approximately 34 thousand gross barrels of oil per day.
- Sable is working with midstream and downstream partners to alleviate third party sales constraints experienced in the second half of August and September 2026. (This is presumably why July/Aug sales were lower than previously forecast.)
- Nominations to Sable’s crude purchaser are expected to increase to an average of 38 thousand gross barrels of oil per day in October 2026. An October 2026 estimated exit rate of approximately 45 thousand bopd prior to the expected addition of Hondo volumes.
- Sable expects increasing oil sales rates after this month.
Also Sable related:
- Gov. Newsome has signed AB 1448 which adds more obstacles for Sable and other OCS producers. (More on AB 1448.)
- A Houston Chronicle article about Sable CEO Jim Flores focuses on his compensation.
- Sable advocate Phil Mickelson is reported to have voluntarily checked himself into an addiction treatment center. We wish him well.
Another Gulf oil production record in 2026? Sable restart continues to raise Pacific production.
Posted in Offshore Energy - General, California, Gulf of Mexico, tagged offshore oil, production, EIA, Pacific, Gulf of America on October 1, 2026| 3 Comments »
2025 was a record production year for the Gulf. Assuming the continued absence of tropical storms, 2026 will likely surpass 2025.
The EIA’s Gulf production revisions have been more significant in recent months. For example, May production was increased by 48,000 bopd over the past 2 months. Yesterday’s report increased June production by 44,000 bopd.
More importantly, the EIA and official ONRR production totals for 2025 are now aligned! Is the EIA reading this blog? 😉
The July production bump in the Pacific was slightly less than expected. Given that Sable reported July production of 38,000 bopd and the production estimate for the other platforms is ~12,000 bopd, a total of 50,000+ bopd was expected.
