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Archive for June, 2024

This action figure of Willie Mays making his signature basket catch has been a prized possession since 1957. Baseball was, by far, the most important American sport back then and Willie was a megastar. I was a Phillies fan, but loved Willie, as did baseball fans everywhere. Below is a 7 minute video that nicely captures the man and his game.

From an offshore energy perspective, the US offshore program also had “rookie” status when Willie joined the Giants in 1951. BSEE’s borehole file lists 93 wells spudded prior to July 1, 1951 in what became the Federal waters of the Gulf. Per BOEM’s structures file, 27 platforms had been installed by that date. The Submerged Lands Act and OCS Lands Act were enacted 2 years later to provide a framework for the leasing and development that followed.

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What’s their solution?

Since the States don’t seem to think there is much risk, perhaps they would like to guarantee decommissioning expenses. Have they looked into the Cox bankruptcy? How about Platforms Hogan and Houchin and the complex decommissioning challenges in the Pacific. Are they comfortable with taxpayer funding for offshore decommissioning?

BOE recently defended the new BOEM rule. If anything, the rule is too lax in that compliance and safety records are not considered in determining financial assurance requirements and lessees may use reserve estimates to reduce supplemental assurance amounts.

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Your tax dollars at work. Highway project? No, Federally funded decommissioning in the Matagorda Island area of the Gulf of Mexico.

This unprecedented use of Federal funds for offshore facility decommissioning does not reflect favorably on lease management practices.

Hopefully, this is not the tip of the iceberg, but most of the estimated $4.5 billion in decommissioning liabilities associated with the Cox bankruptcy loom, as do legal questions regarding liability for Platforms Hogan and Houchin Santa Barbara Channel, and the 1130 remaining pre-1997 platforms. What portion of those liabilities cannot be assigned to prior owners with sufficient financial resources to cover the decommissioning costs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nU-Fl-gfUg

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At Sale 261, Repsol was the sole bidder for 36 nearshore Texas tracts in the Mustang Island and Matagorda Island areas (red blocks at the western end of the map above). Exxon acquired 163 nearshore Texas tracts (blue in map above) at Sales 257 (94) and 259 (69).
  • The 199 oil and gas leases that were wrongfully acquired for carbon disposal purposes remain idle with the government collecting rental payments at the rate of $10/acre/yr ($7 for Sale 257 leases). Collectively, this amounts to approximately $10 million/yr.
  • Presumably, the lessees cannot claim CCS tax credits for their bonus and rental payments.
  • The primary term for these leases is only 5 years, and the clock is ticking. The 94 oil and gas leases acquired by Exxon at Sale 257 for carbon disposal purposes are approaching the end of their second year. They would be almost a year older if litigation hadn’t delayed the issuance of Sale 257 leases (break for Exxon?).
  • No exploration plans have been filed for any of these leases. Presumably Exxon and Repsol do not intend to drill any wells unless the leases are converted to authorize carbon disposal.
  • The “Infrastructure Bill,” signed 2 days before Sale 257, required the Secretary of the Interior to promulgate regulations not later than one year after the date of enactment (11/15/2021). That deadline has long passed.
  • The delay in the regulations is understandable given the complex lease management, operational, and environmental issues.
  • Like the practices and operations they are intended to enable, the regulations are certain to be divisive. Neither the offshore industry nor the environmental community are of one mind on these issues, particularly with regard to the acquisition of oil and gas leases for carbon disposal purposes.
  • Energy Intelligence suggests that final carbon disposal regulations will be promulgated this year. This is highly unlikely, given that a proposed rule must first be published for public comment.
  • Interior could seek to demonstrate “good cause” for a direct final or interim final rule. However, such an attempt at corner-cutting is unlikely, especially given the controversy associated with carbon disposal.
  • Publication of a proposed rule prior to the election is unlikely – too controversial.
  • Presumably, the regulations will establish a competitive process for the conversion of any oil and gas leases.
  • The leases that were wrongfully acquired at Sales 257, 259, and 261 should not be extended for any period of time, even if their expiration date approaches before a competitive process is established.

Closing comment: “Sequestration” is a euphemism that is being incorrectly applied to soften the reality of disposing carbon beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Sequestration implies storage for later use and that is clearly not the intent. Because carbon disposal is arguably dumping, a special exemption from the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries (Ocean Dumping) Act of 1972 had to be added to the Infrastructure Bill.

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DUBAI, June 13 (Reuters) – OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast and expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and may be higher, the secretary general said on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday it sees oil demand peaking by 2029, levelling off at around 106 million barrels per day (bpd) towards the end of the decade.

Hathaim Al Ghais, writing in Energy Aspects, called the IEA report “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale”.

IEA’s credibility has been questioned in recent years, while OPEC’s forecast have been reasonably accurate.

Perhaps the most likely path to oil demand peaking by 2029 is a worldwide recession that the energy policies encouraged by IEA could precipitate. Energy policy in the US and elsewhere suffers from the illusion that a transition to an economy based on intermittent energy sources is imminent. Remarkably, the authors of our 5 year offshore leasing plan were concerned that offshore production would continue for too long. That line of thought led to a 5 year plan no lease sales except for 3 that are a prerequisite to issuing new wind leases.

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or moving in reverse!

24 million bbls have been added since the reserve was drained to the historic low of 347 million bbls last July. At this rate and assuming no further sales, the SPR will be refilled in a scant 15 years!

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Noble’s acquisition of Diamond Offshore will unite two safety management pioneers and long-time offshore safety leaders. The press release stresses the importance of their “culture commonality around safety, operational excellence and service posture,” and their “shared commitment to these foundational principles is expected to be a driving force toward a successful and seamless integration.” While such statements are common in corporate merger announcements, Noble and Diamond “walked-the-walk” for decades, so their statement is more than corporate lip service.

Noble and Diamond have been driving company and industry safety performance through their management and culture programs like Zero Incident Operations (ZIO), Global Excellence Management Systems (GEMS), SAFE Days, and Live Safe Code, and through participation in IADC safety initiatives.

Because of their outstanding safety, environmental, and compliance records, both companies received multiple Minerals Management Service SAFE Awards.

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Based on BOEM and BSEE lease and well data for the past 10 years, LLOG’s Dome Patrol field appears to have reached first production in the shortest time for any new deepwater field. Less than 6.5 years after acquiring the Mississippi Canyon lease, LLOG began producing from a single Dome Patrol well (Mississippi Canyon Block 505) that is tied back to the Who Dat subsea infrastructure.

Lease No.Lease DateField Discovery DateFirst ProductionOperatorField NameWater Depth
G358277/1/20167/14/202012/15/2022LLOGDome Patrol3225′

Karoon Energy recently acquired a 30% interest in Dome Patrol as part of their Who Dat acquisition. Their presentation on that acquisition is informative.

Dome Patrol was the nickname for the outstanding linebacker corps of the New Orleans Saints during the late 1980s and early 1990s, and is thus consistent with the Who Dat theme.

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Diamond Ocean Blackhawk is drilling MC 40 well for Anadarko

Following up on last year’s deepwater diligence post, 4 recent deepwater exploratory wells (table below) were spudded within 4.5 years of the effective date of their leases.

Particularly noteworthy is Anadarko’s well on newly acquired Mississippi Canyon Block 40, which was spudded only 18 months after the lease was acquired. Everything has to be in place for such an outcome: corporate priority, data gathering and analysis, well plan, permitting, and rig contract/availability.

The well was apparently a high priority not just for Anadarko, but also for Chevron and Murphy. MC 40 was acquired by Chevron (bidding alone) at Sale 257 for $4,409,990, the third highest bid at the sale. Murphy had submitted a losing bid of $3 million, but was assigned a 33% share of the lease by Chevron on 12/15/2023. One month earlier, Anadarko had been assigned a 33% interest and became lease operator.

Interestingly, BOEM’s Mean Range of Value (MROV) estimate for the block was only $576,000, so the three companies are seeing something that BOEM doesn’t. We’ll see how this plays out.

According to rig tracker data the Ocean Blackhawk is still on location at MC 40. Per BSEE permitting data, the well was approved to be bypassed in mid-May.

Lease No.BlockOperatorWater Depth
(feet)
lease date
spud date
elapsed time
(months)
EP received
EP approved
G37199MC 40Anadarko470410/1/2022
4/9/2024
1810/20/20233/7/2024
G36924AT 453Chevron56987/1/2020
1/23/2024
429/25/2023
11/21/2023
G36676AT 138Murphy34447/1/2019
11/14/2023
5210/3/2023
11/7/2023
G36558MC 801Shell33031/27/2024
7/1/2019
548/6/2021
1/19/2023
EP= Exploration Plan

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NZ oil and gas fields

April 2018: New Zealand is halting all new offshore oil and gas exploration to become a global leader in the fight against climate change, the centre-left government said Thursday, but opponents accused it of “economic vandalism”.

June 2024: The country’s coalition government is preparing to invite energy companies to resume exploration in the three major offshore fields that supply most of its gas. It comes after National Grid operator Transpower was last month forced to warn families to limit their electricity usage to avoid a shutdown during a cold snap.

Will the policy changes, the details of which remain to be announced, be sufficient to attract E&P investors?

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