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Posts Tagged ‘natural gas’

Florida HB 1645 (attached) was signed by Gov. DeSantis on 5/15/2024. The bill boosts natural gas, prohibits offshore wind turbines, and deletes references to climate change and greenhouse gases in state law. Given the State’s support for traditional energy sources, is it time to renew the dialogue about exploration and production in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (EGOM)?

HB 1645 prohibits offshore and coastal wind development (p. 30), acknowledges that natural gas is critical for power resiliency, prohibits zoning regulations that restrict gas storage facilities and gas appliances (p.8), and relaxes permitting requirements for pipelines <100 miles long.

Given Florida’s energy preferences as expressed in this legislation, the State could assist regional energy planners by better defining its position on oil and gas leasing in the EGOM. What limits, in terms of lease numbers and minimum distances from shore, would best improve Florida’s energy supply options while further minimizing environmental risks?

As illustrated on the map below, the petroleum geology of the EGOM and Florida’s preferences are likely aligned in that the best prospects for oil and gas production are in deep water and more than 100 miles from the State’s coast. Does Florida support a 100 mile buffer?

The 4/20/2010 Macondo blowout was a tragic failure that has been, and will continue to be, discussed at length on this blog. We should also acknowledge that prior to Macondo 25,000 wells were drilled on the US OCS over a 25 year period without a single well control fatality, an offshore safety record that was unprecedented in the U.S. and internationally. We should also applaud recent advances in well integrity and control, including the addition of capping stack capabilities that further reduce the risk of a sustained well blowout.

Florida’s independent thinking on energy policy is commendable. That independence is contingent on importing petroleum products and natural gas from elsewhere in the Gulf region. Securing that supply over the intermediate and longer term should be a priority for Florida. In that regard, EGOM production is an important consideration.

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Add Dunkelflaute to the list of interesting and expressive compound German words. Die Dunkelflaute is a dark lull, a period of time in which minimal energy can be generated by the sun or wind. More specifically in German:

Die Dunkelflaute als sogenanntes Kofferwort beschreibt das gleichzeitige Auftreten von Dunkelheit und Windflaute. Diese Wetterlage entsteht typischerweise im Winter und sorgt für geringe Erträge aus Solar- und Windenergie bei gleichzeitig saisonal hohem Strombedarf. Eine Dunkelflaute kann mehrere Tage andauern. Kommen zu Dunkelheit und Windflaute noch niedrige Temperaturen hinzu, die für gewöhnlich den Strombedarf weiter ansteigen lassen, spricht man auch von “kalter Dunkelflaute.”

Note the prolonged Dunkelflaute (below) during which renewables provided minimal power in the middle of winter.

Unsurprisingly, wind and solar output are the lowest when the temperatures are the coldest. See the Danish summary for 2023 below. Note that wind output was also low when temperatures were above 15 deg. C.

Regional wind energy grids are not always an effective solution as Danish physicist Jens Christiansen, a nuclear energy advocate, has illustrated:

‘The wind always blows somewhere.’ Is that really true though? Here I’ve looked at the capacity factors of wind from five northern European countries in August The winds seem highly correlated, and there is almost a week-long period without significant wind anywhere.

Christiansen illustrates Denmark’s reliance on imported electricity:

Paraphrasing Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with electricity imports is that you eventually run out of other people’s electricity.” In the U.S., California imports more electricity than any other state and typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state.

Given that massive battery storage is well beyond current capabilities and restrictions on electricity consumption and economic growth are undesirable, redundant or complementary power sources are essential for a reliable grid. Natural gas power generation is most responsive to variable demand, and is thus a good complement to variable sources like wind turbines and solar panels.

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Unsurprisingly, the winner is natural gas.

A new report ranks eight key energy industry sectors based on their ability to meet the growing demand for affordable, reliable, and clean electric power generation.

As governments around the nation attempt to impose a transition from traditional energy resources to energy sources open referred to as renewables, natural gas is the energy source that is best suited to integrate with the intermittency inherent in the use of wind and solar. Gas provides a reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean source of energy in both traditional and “carbon-constrained” applications.

Gas faces headwinds in the form of increasingly extreme net zero energy policies that will constrict supplies if implemented as proposed. Gas could also improve overall reliability if onsite storage was prioritized to help avoid supply disruptions that can occur in just-in-time pipeline deliveries during periods of extreme weather and demand.

MCPP-NWU Report Card

This blog has been saluting natural gas for years, most recently in this post. From an environmental standpoint, offshore natural gas production is particularly attractive, especially nonassociated gas-well gas.

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In the wake of the decision to “pause” LNG export approvals, it’s important for us to also pause and reflect on the natural gas revolution.

Gas now accounts for 40% of our power generation.

The gas boom’s economic and environmental benefits are compelling. Greenhouse gas emissions currently get most of the attention. In that regard, methane (CH4) is a hydrogen transporter that emits far less CO2 than other fossil fuels when burned.

Less attention has been given to natural gas’s other important air quality advantages – low NOx. SO2, and particulate emissions. These emissions have greater local significance from a human health standpoint. Those who have ridden a bike behind a natural gas powered bus have no doubt experienced the natural gas advantage firsthand.

Other environmental considerations particularly favor offshore natural gas when compared to energy alternatives. These include low well and facility density, no groundwater pollution risk, and minimal risk to wildlife.

Compiled below are links to BOE posts on natural gas issues and advantages.

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Production at Chevron’s Leviathan, a giant offshore gas field

This may come as a surprise to many, but Israel produced 752 billion cubic feet of gas in 2022, which is nearly equivalent to US offshore gas production (788 bcf in 2022).

Chevron is the main operator in Israel, having purchased Noble’s assets in 2020. Absent Noble’s bold and pioneering exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel would have continued to be an energy importer dependent on coal for power generation.

Presumably, the protection of these offshore assets is a high priority for the Israeli Navy.

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New York’s looming, self-imposed electric power crisis:

Something here does not remotely add up.  If New York state succeeds by 2030 in closing its natural gas plants — the plants that account for 60% of the State’s generation capacity — that would bring our total installed capacity down from 37.5 GW to as little as 15 GW. But we need almost 60 GW to meet projected demand.  And that’s 60 GW that can be called on any time as needed to meet peak usage.  The 9 GW of projected offshore wind turbines wouldn’t make much of a dent even if they operated all the time and could be dispatched to meet peak demand, which they can’t.  Instead, they will operate only about a third of the time, and at their own whim.  At best they will provide about 3 GW on average, when what we need for this full electrification project is more like 45 GW of dispatchable power to add to our existing hydro and nuclear.   

Manhattan Contrarian

Power generation realities:

  • Assuming sufficient capacity, gas power plants respond to variable demand.
  • Wind and solar power are intermittent, such that demand must respond to variable supply (not a prescription for economic growth).
  • Power grids can function effectively with only natural gas, but not with only wind/solar.
  • Integrated wind, solar, and gas systems can reduce, but not eliminate, demand for gas-generated power.
Siemens gas turbine for the offshore industry

Offshore platforms: In some regions, there is a push to power platforms with renewable energy transported by electric cable. Currently, most platforms are efficiently powered by gas turbines which satisfy energy needs even when demand spikes during well operations like tripping out of the hole. The extent to which renewables can reliably support platform operations during these and other operations, when power interruptions are unacceptable from a safety standpoint, is a risk that must be assessed prior to committing to alternative energy sources.

The environmental benefits of powering platforms with renewable energy also have not been clearly documented. In most cases, offshore platforms produce sufficient gas to support their power demands. Should platforms be powered by imported electricity, gas that is not used for platform operations would presumably be marketed for consumption elsewhere or reinjected.

If the gas is marketed and consumed elsewhere, there is essentially no net (global) CO2 emissions reduction benefit. Gas that is reinjected is wasted unless there is an enhanced oil recovery benefit. So, the net environmental benefit from importing electric power seems questionable, and the operational risks could be significant.

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Offshore gas has important environmental advantages, particularly nonassociated gas-well gas (GWG). While the GoM production chart (below) is not pretty, there are signs that gas production may have bottomed and is slowly rising. This is largely due to growth in oil-well gas (OWG) associated with deepwater oil production.

A successful offshore program requires a mix of strategies, and it is encouraging that companies are still pursuing natural gas on the GoM shelf. The second chart (below), based on BOEM data, shows 2022 YTD (probably through Oct.) GWG production for the 11 companies that (1) produced more GWG than OWG and (2) produced more than 1 BCF of GWG.

Interestingly, 100% of the gas produced by Contango, Samchully, and Helis in 2022 was from gas wells. Contrast this with bp, the third largest GoM gas producer. None of bp’s gas production was from gas wells.

One has to wonder about the extent to which deepwater gas reservoirs are being stranded due to the less favorable economics. Preventing such resource losses was once an important regulatory consideration given the conservation mandate in the OCS Lands Act and the importance of maximizing the public benefit. However, current policy, as expressed in the proposed 5 year leasing plan, is to phase out offshore production rather than sustain it. This is difficult to reconcile.

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100+ tcf and the discoveries keep coming. Here’s the latest:

London, 7 November 2022 – Energean plc is pleased to announce that i) the Zeus 01 exploration well has made a commercial gas discovery of 13 bcm ii) contingent resources at Athena have been upgraded following post-well analysis; and iii) the Stena IceMax drilling rig has moved to block 23 to drill the Hercules structure, the final well in Energean’s 2022 drilling campaign.

Will the gas/power transmission systems follow?

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Further, per the ONRR data:

Oil-Well Gas
Produced
(BCF)
Gas-Well Gas
Produced
(BCF)
total gas
produced
(BCF)
total gas flared
or vented
(BCF)
% flared
or vented
2015588.4719.41307.810.30.8
2016631.7589.11220.89.70.8
2017637.3441.21078.59.90.9
2018623.1370.1993.210.61.1
2019670.2364.11034.311.71.1
2020581.4224.9806.310.41.3
2021582.2209.5791.78.21

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In a world where diplomacy seems to be lacking, it’s nice to learn that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on their maritime boundary, and that both countries are satisfied. Based on press reports, it appears that the Qana gas field will fall under the control of Lebanon and that Israel will control the Karish field. Good for Lebanon, good for Israel, and good for energy!

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