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Posts Tagged ‘Chevron’

Big Beautiful Gulf of America

Will the oil and gas lease sale boldly named Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1) live up to its grand name? Given the more favorable lease terms and the 2 year gap since the last sale, BBG1 should surpass the previous 3 sales (table below). Questions:

  • Which majors will be the most active bidders? Chevron? Shell? BP? Oxy/Anadarko?
  • Will former Gulf of Mexico stalwarts Exxon and Conoco Phillips participate for the first time in years? Probably not, but US super-majors should participate in the US offshore program.
  • How many companies will submit bids? Would like that to be a number >35.
  • How many tracts will receive bids? A number >300 would be very encouraging.
  • Will the total high bids exceed $400 million?
  • Will we see an increase in shelf interest?
  • Which independents will be the most active?
  • After the not-so-clever carbon disposal acquisitions in the last 3 sales, will the number of carbon disposal bids be zero? For the first time ever, the Federal government felt compelled to stipulate the obvious (see the proposed notice for OCS Sale 262) – that an Oil and Gas Lease Sale is only for oil and gas exploration and development.

See the summary data below for the last 3 Gulf lease sales. We’ll fill in the blanks next week.

Sale No.257259261BBG1
date11/17/20213/29/202312/20/202312/10/2025
companies
participating
333226
total bids223328423161
tracts receiving bids214324422751
sum of all bids
$millions
198.5309.8441.9
sum of high bids
($millions)
101.7263.8382.2
highest bid
company
block
$10,001,252.00
Anadarko
AC 259
$15,911,947
Chevron
KC 96
$25,500,085
Anadarko
MC 389
most high bids
company
sum ($millions)
46
bp
29.0
75
Chevron
108.0
65
Shell
69.0
sum of high bids ($millions)
company
47.1
Chevron
108
Chevron
88.3
Hess
most high bids by independent14-DG Expl.13-Beacon
13-Red Willow
22-Red Willow
1excludes 36 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 2excludes 69 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 3excludes 94 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes

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In light of the fantastic Middle East news, planning for the redevelopment of Gaza is underway. The Gaza Marine Gas Field should be a high priority given the power generation and revenue potential.

The field, which was discovered in 1999 by British Gas (now part of Shell), is located approximately 30-36 km off the coast of Gaza in the eastern Mediterranean and has estimated natural gas reserves of ~ 1 Tcf.

Who should be licensed to develop the field? In June 2023, there was a proposed agreement between the Palestinian Authority and an Egyptian consortium led by state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS). A resurrection of this arrangement may align with Palestinian interests. EGAS has experience in Mediterranean gas projects including the giant Zohr field (see map below).

Other candidates for developing the Gaza Marine field (pure speculation):

  • Chevron would be a logical choice given their extensive eastern Mediterranean experience as a result of their acquisition of Noble Energy. However, there might be concerns about undue US and Israeli control of this important resource.
  • Regional giants like Saudi Aramco, Qatar Energy, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) would be good candidates.
  • Another interesting possibility might be Equinor, which is 2/3 owned by the Norwegian govt. Equinor seems to sometimes make socially desirable investments that are less profitable.

Some combination of the above companies might also be a possibility. In any event, it’s critical to manage this resource in a manner that best benefits the recovery effort.

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Salamanca FPU (Repsol photo)

Every deepwater platform installed since Feb. 2018, when Chevron installed its Big Foot tension leg platform (TLP), has been a Floating Production Unit (aka FPU or production semisubmersible). During that period, no new SPARs, FPSOs, or TLPs were installed.

The list (below) of these simpler, safer, greener FPUs has grown by two with the initiation of production at Shenandoah and Salamanca. Note the water depth range from 3725 to 8600 ft.

platformoperatorwater depth (ft)first production
AppomattoxShell7400May 2019
King’s QuayMurphy3725April 2022
VitoShell4050Feb 2023
Argosbp4440April 2023
AnchorChevron4600Aug 2024
WhaleShell8600Jan 2025
ShenandoahBeacon5840July 2025
SalamancaLLOG6405Sept 2025

The efficiencies achieved with the simpler platform designs combined with the high pressure (>15,000 psi) technology developed over the past 2 decades is facilitatihg production from the highly prospective Paleogene (Wilcox) deepwater fans. (For those interested in learning more about the geology, see the excellent presentation by Dr. Mike Sweet, Univ. of Texas, that is embedded in this post.)

With bp’s commitment to Tiber, 3 new high-pressure projects, ala Chevron’s Anchor, are in the pipeline:

platformoperatorwater depth (ft)discovery datefirst production
Kaskidabp600020062029
SpartaShell470020122028
Tiberbp413020092030
All of the operators note the cost-saving similarities in their FPU designs. For example, Vito and Whale are very much the same despite the 4550′ difference in water depth.

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Deepwater Titan, Gulf of America

The latest Baker Hughes Rig Count Report shows only 10 rigs actively drilling in the Gulf. All are at deepwater locations – 7 in the Mississippi Canyon area, 2 in Green Canyon, and 1 in Alaminos Canyon. Per the BSEE borehole file, Shell accounts for most of the current MS Canyon wells and the Alaminous Canyon well. Beacon is also drilling in the MS Canyon, and the Green Canyon well appears to be a Chevron operation.

This current rig count, which has hovered between 9 and 12 all year, is troubling if you are concerned about long-term production. By comparison the Gulf rig count reached 22 last year and was 100+ during the 10 year period from 1994 to 2003.

Only Anadarko/Oxy, Beacon/BOE, BP, Chevron/Hess, Shell, and Talos have spudded deepwater exploratory wells in 2025 YTD. Arena and Cantium are the only shelf drillers – all development wells.

Technological advances and extensions of past discoveries have sustained Gulf production, but declines are certain over the longer term if drilling activity doesn’t increase. Oil price uncertainty is an issue, but that’s always the case. Semiannual lease sales are now legislatively required and the terms will be attractive, so those issues are off the table. Let’s see what the bidding looks like at the upcoming sale.

The decline in deepwater discoveries (BOEM data below) is particularly discouraging. Per BOEM, the last deepwater field discovery was in March 2023.

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As posted in January, most analysts predicted that Chevron and Hess would prevail. Now that the arbitration panel has ruled, Chevron’s acquisition of Hess can be completed.

The position of Exxon and its partner, Chinese govt owned CNOOC, never made much sense given that Chevron was not buying the Stabroek share, they were buying the company that holds that share.

The CNOOC position was rather hypocritical given that they acquired their share of Stabroek by buying Nexen, the company that owned it.

Not much attention has been paid to the importance of Chevron’s acquisition of Hess’s Gulf of America assets. The combined company will be the 3rd largest GoM oil producer (behind Shell and bp) and the second largest gas producer (behind only Shell). Hess acquired 20 GoA leases in Sale 261, ranking first in total high bids ($88 million) among all participants.

Lots more on Stabroek.

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Reuters and others report that zinc from a new Chevron well has contaminated oil production destined for an Exxon refinery via Shell’s Mars Pipeline System. Because contaminated crude may cause maintenance issues and reduces the quality of refined products, Exxon will not accept crude from the Mars system until the zinc issue has been resolved.

The Mars system delivers about 575,000 bopd raising concerns about supplies to Gulf Coast refineries. But fear not, DOE authorized the delivery of up to 1 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the Exxon’s Baton Rouge refinery.

(Ironically, yesterday’s post pointed to the importance of the SPR and questioned the decision to drastically reduce crude oil purchases. This zinc incident is likely to be minor, and Exxon will repay the SPR in kind. However, more serious regional, domestic, and international events could call for much greater SPR withdrawals.)

The above map shows Chevron platforms that connect with the Mars system at Port Fourchon.

Speculation/commentary:

  • The well/platform responsible for the zinc contamination has not been identified. Given that production is ramping up at Chevron’s Anchor facility, a new well on that platform may be the source of the zinc. Other Chevron platforms that connect to the Mars system are indicated in the diagram above.
  • Given that zinc in crude oil is rare, a well completion fluid containing zinc bromide may be the culprit.
  • Note the integration of offshore production streams, and the involvement of 3 industry super-majors. These companies are highly competitive, as evidenced by the Chevron-Exxon Stabroek dispute, but are also cooperative in producing, transporting, and refining oil and gas. However, they and other majors are restricted (rather illogically) from bidding jointly for leases.

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This week Total announced the acquisition of a 25% working interest in 40 Chevron leases in the Gulf of America. Total already owned interest in Chevron’s producing Ballymore (40%), Anchor (37.14%), Jack (25%), and Tahiti (17%) fields. Ironically, Federal regulations prohibited Total from jointly bidding with Chevron for any of those leases at the time of the sales. How does that make sense?

Restrictions limiting joint bidding by major oil companies date back to the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975. Although these restrictions were intended to increase competition and revenues, OCS program economists have asserted, and studies have shown, that the ban results in fewer bids per tract and lower bonuses to the government.

Total did not submit a single bid in any of the past 4 Gulf of America lease sales. Perhaps they prefer to acquire interest in blocks previously leased to companies like Chevron. That is a reasonable acquisition strategy. However, farm-in acquisitions yield no bonus dollars to the Federal government. Wouldn’t it have been in the government’s best interest if some of those acquisition dollars were spent at lease sales where the bonus bids go to the US Treasury? It’s long past time to remove the joint bidding restrictions!

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Two of Israel’s three offshore gas fields are shut-in as a precaution. As a result, exports to Egypt and Jordan has been curtailed. The Tamar field continues to supply Israel’s gas needs.

Summary table:

field
(operator)
2024 production
(billion cubic meters)
(% of Israel’s total)
status
Leviathan
(Chevron)
11.33
45%
shut-in
Tamar
(Energean)
10.09
37%
producing
Karish
(Chevron)
5.96
18%
shut-in

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Exxon senior vice president Neil Chapman said he was confident that a three-member arbitration panel would rule in Exxon’s favor and determine it had a right-of-first-refusal to purchase Hess’ stake in a Guyana oil joint venture operated by Exxon.

Hess: “We remain confident that the arbitration will confirm the Stabroek right of first refusal does not apply to the merger.”

A ruling is expected in 2-3 months.

The China factor

Should the govt of Guyana have intervened?

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Their filing is attached. I found the following points to be particularly compelling:

p.3: “Despite no evidence that an Oil and Gas Program vessel has ever struck a Rice’s whale, the 2025 BiOp projects that Oil and Gas Program vessels will lethally strike numerous Rice’s whales over the term of the 2025 BiOp. On that basis alone, the Service found that the Oil and Gas Program will jeopardize the continued existence of the Rice’s whale, and developed a multi-step reasonable and prudent alternative which it asserts will reduce projected vessel strikes to zero.

p. 4: “The Rice’s whale is a rarely found animal that the Service first identified as a new species (separate from the non-endangered Bryde’s whale) in 2021. 86 Fed. Reg. 47,022 (Aug. 23, 2021). There is no evidence that an Oil and Gas Program vessel has ever struck a Rice’s whale (or a Bryde’s whale) despite continued operation in the Gulf over many decades.”

p. 5: “The 2025 BiOp disregards the Bureaus’ logical, fact-based conclusion. Instead, the Service’s 2025 BiOp engages in speculation and guess-work to surmise that Oil and Gas Program vessels could be striking and killing Rice’s whales on a regular basis. The Service ignores the best available data (i.e., showing no recorded observations of an oil and gas vessel striking a Rice’s whale) and instead presumes that forceable and lethal collisions between oil and gas service vessels and 60,000-pound whales are regularly occurring but somehow going unnoticed by the vessels and their crews and that the carcasses silently disappear into the water, never to be seen again.

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