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Gulf of Maine Final Lease Areas, Acres, and Assigned Region

Lease Area ID Total Acres Developable Acres 
OCS-A 0562 97,854 97,854 
OCS-A 0563 105,682 105,682 
OCS-A 0564 98,565 93,756 
OCS-A 0565 103,191 103,191 
OCS-A 0566 96,075 96,075 
OCS-A 0567 117,780 113,208 
OCS-A 0568 124,897 116,363 
OCS-A 0569 106,038 101,757 
Total 850,082 827,886 
Average106,260103,486
Note that the ave. lease size is 18.4 times larger than a typical Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease

Today’s Gulf of Maine sale will likely be the last wind lease sale for at least a year.

Per a provision in the “Inflation Reduction Act,” no offshore wind leases may be issued after 12/20/2024, the one year anniversary of the last oil and gas lease sale (no. 261).

Perhaps as a result of the legislative restriction, their desire to maximize wind leasing, and their plan to hold the fewest oil and gas lease sales in the history of the OCS program, BOEM front-loaded the 5 year wind leasing plan to include 4 sales from Aug. – Sept. 2024 (see schedule below). However, contrary to plan, the Gulf of Mexico sale was cancelled for lack of interest and the Oregon sale was cancelled at the request of the Governor in response to tribal and coastal county opposition.

The date of the next oil and gas lease sale is anyone’s guess. Next week’s elections are, of course, the elephant in the room. However, there is also an enormous ruling by a Federal judge in Maryland that would halt the issuance of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas leases and the approval of operating plans effective Dec. 20, 2024. Ironically (or perhaps not?), this is the same date after which no wind leases may be issued absent an oil and gas lease sale.

Chevron and industry trade associations have appealed Judge Boardman’s ruling. (Given the enormous implications of that ruling on current and future Gulf of Mexico production, I’m curious as to why Chevron is the only major producer that is a party in this appeal. Chevron was also the only producer that was a party in the litigation overturning the restrictive Sale 261 lease sale provisions. I’m assuming there is some legal or tactical reason for the absence of participation by Shell, bp, and Oxy?)

Finally, given the legislation linking future wind sales with oil and gas sales, are the Sierra Club et al, the plaintiffs in this case, comfortable with Judge Boardman’s decision? Perhaps they are okay with the judge’s ruling given the absence of any planned Atlantic wind leasing until 2026?

Attached are the full results of a Stockton University poll that assessed New Jersey voters’ support for offshore wind development. Stockton’s methodology is explained on the last page of the attachment (also pasted below).

Observations:

  • The poll does not appear to be agenda driven, either for or against offshore wind development.
  • The sharp decline in public support (first slide below) was contrary to the advocacy flow in that it occurred during a period of strong and persistent State and Federal promotion of offshore wind energy.
  • More than half of the respondents were from North Jersey, the region that is more closely aligned politically with the Governor and the Federal Administration. Only 16% of the respondents were from South Jersey where opposition to offshore wind projects is the strongest. The imbalance is understandable in that it is consistent with the regional imbalance in population.
  • Unsurprisingly, support for offshore wind is lowest in coastal counties. In that regard, more granularity would have been nice. Cape May County is the US epicenter of resistance to offshore wind development and is engaged in litigation with the Federal government over the Ocean Wind 1 project. Polling specific to Cape May and each of the other coastal counties would be beneficial.
  • The polling data suggest that offshore wind projects are not a priority for most New Jersey voters. Only 24% of both coastal and non-coastal residents view offshore wind as a major priority (third slide below).

Methodology
The poll of New Jersey registered voters was conducted by the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy from Oct. 10-14, 2024. Stockton University students texted cell phones with invitations to take the survey online and Opinion Services supplemented the dialing portion of the fieldwork, which consisted of cell and landline telephone calls. Overall, 91% of interviews were conducted on cell phones and 9% on landline phones. In terms of mode, 65% were reached via dialing and 35% were reached via text-to-web. A random sample of 616 New Jersey registered voters were interviewed. Both cell and landline samples consisted of random digit dialing (RDD) and voter list sample from MSG. Data are weighted based on U.S.Census Bureau ACS 2023 data for the citizen voting age population in New Jersey on variables ofage, race, education level, and sex. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points at a95% confidence level. MOE is higher for subsets. Sampling error does not account for other potential sources of bias in polls such as measurement error or non-response.

Newport Cliff Walk

“Defendant Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (“BOEM”), acting as lead federal agency, violated federal law when it approved an industrial-scale energy project known as Revolution Wind. BOEM approved this project without considering its adverse effects on National Historic Landmarks (NHLs) and other historic properties within one of the most historically and culturally significant communities in the country. BOEM also failed to take a “hard look” at Revolution Wind’s impacts on the environment, leaving unanswered questions even though the law required BOEM to inform the public about the project’s environmental benefits and costs.“

Those who have visited the Newport Cliff Walk and historic “cottages” are likely to appreciate the concerns of the Preservation Society. Their court filing is attached.

The Southeast Lighthouse Foundation is also a party in this litigation

The attached brief was filed in the Supreme Court today by the Aquinnah Wampanoag Tribe of Gay Head in support of the Nantucket group ACK for Whales petition that was previously posted.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve would have no doubt been tapped again, as the Administration implied in June, if prices had exceeded $80/bbl for a sustained period prior to the upcoming elections. Fortunately, for the consumer and the SPR, that has not been the case.

Prior to the 2022 midterm elections, oil prices reached as high as $122/bbl in June and remained above $90/bbl through July. The SPR was tapped hard with a massive reduction of 123 million bbls in the 5 months prior to the elections.

Despite the modest additions to the SPR in 2024, the reserve is only about one-half of capacity and 11% above the all-time low (7/7/2023).

Damaged Vineyard Wind turbine; Kit Noble photo
BSEE statement to the Nantucket Current

Comparing the above BSEE statement with recent GE Venova (GE) statements:

  • GE: We were “granted approval to return to installing new blades on turbines at the project once stringent safety and operational conditions are met.” (Positive spin of the BSEE statement implying that approval is assured.)
  • GE: “We have finalized root cause analysis and confirm the blade at issue at Vineyard Wind was caused by a manufacturing deviation from our factory in Canada.” (Then why doesn’t BSEE have the analysis? Is the Canadian plant being scapegoated?)

Finally, as expected, we can now conclude that the blades being shipped from New Bedford to France were defective.

Rolldock Sun arriving in Cherbourg with defective blades

Breaking report from the Nantucket Current:

Almost 40 years ago, four large oil and gas platforms were installed in the beautiful offshore area that was part of our Santa Maria District (Pacific Region of the Minerals Management Service). Those platforms are now within the boundaries of the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary (see map above).

We watched those platforms being installed, inspected the drilling and production operations, and performed a myriad of other duties including the curtailment of offshore operations prior to launches from Vandenberg AFB. Those Vandenberg launches weren’t always perfect as this link clearly demonstrates. Even knowing that, it was still a bit unnerving when missiles were recovered during post-abandonment site clearance trawls.

All four of those Santa Maria District platforms are now on terminated OCS leases. All were installed by companies that are now part of Chevron Corp. (Chevron, Texaco, and Unocal). They are currently maintained by Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas, with Chevron retaining financial responsibility for decommissioning.

PlatformInstall yr.installed bywater depth (ft)Est. removal weight (short tons)wells drilled
Harvest1985Texaco67535,15019
Hermosa1985Chevron60330,86813
Hidalgo1986Chevron43023,38414
Irene1985Unocal2428,76226

BSEE reports that the 46 wells on Harvest, Hermosa, and Hidalgo have been plugged and tested, and that the well conductors have been removed. No information has been posted on the status of the wells at Platform Irene, but presumably they are (or will soon be) plugged in accordance with BSEE regulations.

Will the inclusion of these platforms in the Chumash Marine Sanctuary further complicate the already difficult decommissioning process? Decommissioning specialist John Smith thinks it may:

“In addition to the BOEM and BSEE approval process, Chevron and FMC are going to be dealing with the NOAA permitting regime for Sanctuaries.  Those permitting and environmental compliance requirements are extensive.  NOAA’s NEPA documentation for West Coast marine sanctuaries will also need to be amended to include the Chumash.”

So the “Mission Impossible” that is California OCS decommissioning now has yet another complex regulatory element.

John also thinks the Sanctuary designation presents yet another obstacle for Sable’s plans to restart Santa Ynez Unit production:

“Even though most of the SYU facilities are outside the Sanctuary, the proximity of the operations to the Sanctuary is problematic. The Chumash are now going to be a co-manager of the Sanctuary, adding another player in the process.   Sable is going to obtain multiple Federal, State and local permits to restart SYU, and law suits are likely at every stage of the process.” 

BOE will be watching!

Hywind Scotland, Equinor

Equinor reports that all 5 Hywind turbines have been returned to service after being towed to Norway as part of a 4-month maintenance campaign.

Even though the turbines had only been in operation since 2017, Equinor puts a positive spin on the 4-month maintenance outage, declaring total victory:

“The successful completion of the maintenance campaign on Hywind Scotland is a testament to the collaborative efforts of our teams and partners. As the world’s first floating offshore wind farm, Hywind Scotland has demonstrated the immense potential of floating wind. Through this maintenance campaign, we’ve gained valuable insights that will help us refine maintenance practices and optimise this technology for the future. By sharing our learnings, we aim to contribute to the growth and development of the floating wind industry.”

Some of the folks in Scotland have a different take as evidenced in this video:

Meanwhile, the turbines planned for offshore Central California will also have to be towed to shore for major maintenance. Nearby harbor areas like Morro Bay (pictured below) would be overwhelmed by the large structures and the maintenance and repair operations. Central Coast residents are not enamored with “another attempt to industrialize the coast.” Towing the towers to LA/Long Beach, albeit rather distant from the leases, would seem to be the preferred option for such work.

Looking forward, the first power generation from floating wind turbines on the Central Coast is forecast for 2034. Betters may want to take the over!

Per a related post, the full SpaceX lawsuit is attached. It’s mostly exhibits, so don’t be intimidated by the length.

This excerpt summarizes the case nicely:

“Rarely has a government agency made so clear that it was exceeding its authorized mandate to punish a company for the political views and statements of its largest shareholder and CEO. Second, the Commission is trying to unlawfully regulate space launch programs—which are critical to national security and other national policy objectives—at Vandenberg Space Force Base (the Base), a federal enclave and the world’s second busiest spaceport.”

Even Gov. Newsome sides with SpaceX saying “I’m with Elon.”

Will this case teach the Commission some humility? Probably not, but we shall see.