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Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

Loss of power to Johan Sverdrup field raises further questions about Norway’s push to electrify offshore facilities

Posted in accidents, climate, Norway, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , , , , on November 20, 2024| Leave a Comment »

Johan Sverdrup field, 155 km from shore

Production from Equinor’s important Johan Sverdrup field, which accounts for 755,000 bopd (36% of Norway’s oil production), was shut-in on Monday as a result of a power outage. Production was in the process of being restored on Tuesday.

According to Equinor, the outage was caused by overheating at an electric converter station onshore.

A 2022 BOE post questioned Norway’s push to power offshore platforms with electricity transmitted from shore. This incident reinforces those concerns. Summary:

  • Most offshore platforms produce sufficient gas to support their power demands
  • Assuming gas that is not used to power a platform is marketed and consumed elsewhere, the net (global) reduction in CO2 emissions from electrifying offshore platforms is negligible. (Perhaps there is actually a small increase in net emissions given the power required to transport the gas to markets and the emissions associated with onshore power generation).
  • Offshore power demands are highly variable, especially when drilling operations are being conducted.
  • Gas turbines are reliable, and capable of responding to variable power demand. Excess generation capacity is typically provided.
  • Power from shore increases the cost of platform operations and could decrease ultimate recovery of oil and gas resources.
  • Per NPD, electrification of the shelf will increase electricity prices for onshore consumers and increase the need for onshore facility investment.
  • Gas turbines or diesel generators are still necessary to satisfy emergency power needs at the platforms.
  • Long power cables are vulnerable to damage (accidental or intentional), as are onshore power stations.

I hope the investigation of this incident considers some of these broader electrification policy issues.

Equinor diagram: The purple cable shows power from shore to Johan Sverdrup phase 1, established in 2018. The yellow power cable shows power from shore to Johan Sverdrup phase 2 and the Utsira High area solution, from 2022. The orange cable shows power from shore to the Sleipner field centre and connected fields from late 2022. Black cable shows existing power cables at Sleipner field centre and to the Gudrun installation.

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Does Exxon fear the collapse of the CCS house of cards?

Posted in CCS, climate, conferences, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, Regulation, tagged , , , , , , on November 14, 2024| 4 Comments »

Exxon CEO Darren Woods’ is concerned that US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement would threaten carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the foundation for which is government mandates and generous taxpayer subsidies.

Exxon projected a $4 trillion carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) market by 2050. The company was a primary driver behind the late additions to the 2021 Infrastructure Bill. That bill authorized carbon disposal on the OCS, exempted such disposal from the Ocean Dumping Act, and authorized $2.5 billion for commercial CCS projects.

Exxon sought an edge over CCS competitors by improperly acquiring 163 OCS oil and gas leases (map below) for carbon disposal purposes. Conversion of these leases is not authorized, which means they will expire at the end of their primary (5 year) term absent legislative or regulatory action.

The only solid support for CCS is from companies hoping to benefit from subsidies and charges to industries and individual energy consumers. It’s time to end the Federal government’s CCS programs.

199 oil and gas leases were wrongfully acquired at Sales 257, 259, and 261 with the intent of developing these leases for carbon disposal purposes. Repsol was the sole bidder at Sale 261 for 36 nearshore Texas tracts in the Mustang Island and Matagorda Island areas (red blocks at the western end of the map above). Exxon acquired 163 nearshore Texas tracts (blue in map above) at Sales 257 (94) and 259 (69).

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No wind November

Posted in climate, Offshore Wind, tagged , , , , on November 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »

Check out these capacity factors in Western Europe:

Die Dunkelflaute: wholesale electricity prices spiked to >€800 per megawatt hour—10 times the usual avg.

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Denmark’s “ban” on oil and gas exploration, campaign against fossil fuels

Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , , , , on November 4, 2024| Leave a Comment »

As the table below illustrates, Denmark’s highly publicized oil and gas exploration ban is more pragmatic than has been reported in the media. The expansion of production from existing fields is not restricted.

12/4/2020 policy announcement10/29/2024 discovery announcement
Denmark has brought an immediate end to new oil and gas exploration in the Danish North Sea as part of a plan to phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2050. TotalEnergies announces that the Harald East Middle Jurassic nearby exploration well (HEMJ-1X) has discovered additional gas condensate resources in the Harald field, in the Danish North Sea.“The success of the Harald East Middle Jurassic well, nearby our Harald facilities in Denmark, demonstrates the strength of our Exploration strategy.” 

As a result of new exploration, Danish gas production is on the rise (graphic below) after two decades of decline. August 2024 production (165.8 MMCFD) was 21% higher than August 2023 production (136.9 MMCFD)

While Total has proven to be resourceful in sustaining North Sea gas production, Denmark’s refusal to hold new licensing rounds dooms their production over the longer term. This is consistent with Denmark’s intent to cease domestic production by 2050. (Those of you who are young enough can report on whether that deadline is met 😉).

The demand for fossil fuels, which has yet to peak, will still be strong in 2050 and beyond. Phasing out domestic production may be Denmark’s choice, but it’s not a good choice for much of the world.

Denmark is a lovely country, but their rather smug commitment to “lead a global campaign on the role of fossil-fuel producing countries” is not universally welcome. Similarly, companies like Orsted (50.1% Danish govt ownership) are not always the best ambassadors for exporting Danish energy policy.

Other governments, including the US, are quite capable of risking their economic growth and energy security without Denmark’s help.

Related posts:

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Encouraging study for ultra-deep geothermal fans

Posted in climate, drilling, tagged , , , , on October 18, 2024| 4 Comments »

Ultra-deep geothermal is arguably the renewable energy resource with the greatest long term potential. It is accessible everywhere, can replace thermal energy sources at existing power plants, and isn’t handicapped by the intermittency, space preemption, aesthetic, and wildlife protection challenges inherent in wind and solar development.

from Superhot Rock Energy

A new study found that rock that fractures at superhot conditions (see diagram above) can be ten times more permeable than rock that fractures at conditions closer to the Earth’s surface, and can also deform more readily.

Why is this important?

from Superhot Rock Energy

The next big step for ultra-deep geothermal is demonstrating the technology to efficiently drill wells to depths of ~20 km. In that regard, we are awaiting Quaise Energy’s field test of their gyrotron drilling system.

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Nord Stream litigation: Insurers’ assertion is “embarrassing for want of particularity”

Posted in accidents, climate, pipelines, tagged , , , , , , on October 14, 2024| 4 Comments »

Jeffrey Brodsky, a journalist who traveled to all four Nord Stream blast sites, shared Nord Stream AG’s response (attached) to the 30 Sept. court filing by the insurers.

Particularly noteworthy is Nord Stream’s response to the insurers’ claim (par. 22.2 (a) of their filing) that the pipeline damage was the result of “the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” In par. 13.1 of their response (attached), Nord Stream called the insurers’ assertion “embarrassing for want of particularity.” (clever wording that may prove useful in the future 😉)

Brodsky’s observations on the Nord Stream filing:

  • Nord Stream AG calls the insurers (Lloyd’s and Arch) failure to provide evidence for the country that blew up the pipelines “embarrassing.” (See above comment.)
  • Nord Stream argues that the insurers still must pay even if the sabotage was an act of war. This aligns with what legal scholar Said Mahmoudi told Brodsky.
  • Mahmoudi: “The defendants’ argument is prima facie irrelevant if one cannot prove that the damage is caused by a named government that has been directly involved in a war in the area. The burden of proof in this case is…on the defendant.”
  • Mahmoudi: “Even if the sabotage is an act of terrorism, the author of the act can be a state or a private entity.”
  • Mahmoudi: “If a private entity, the insurance company, is the only source for the compensation; if a state is responsible for the terrorist act, it is the insurance company & that state that have a legal obligation to compensate for the damage.”

Related comment by Erik Andersson: Nord Stream AG has consistently claimed they should receive compensation regardless of whether or not a government was responsible for the sabotage. Nord Stream AG does not seem interested in providing an alternative to Lloyds’ claim that Ukraine did this as an act of war. (That horse might be too big to ride 😉)

2024-10-07 – Nord Stream AG v (1) LIC and (2) Arch – CL-2024-000094 – Amended ReplyDownload

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Don’t expect to see OCS carbon disposal regulations prior to the election or perhaps for a long time after (regardless of who wins)

Posted in CCS, climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Regulation, tagged , , , , , , on October 10, 2024| Leave a Comment »

199 oil and gas leases were wrongfully acquired at Sales 257, 259, and 261 with the intent of developing these leases for carbon disposal purposes. Repsol was the sole bidder at Sale 261 for 36 nearshore Texas tracts in the Mustang Island and Matagorda Island areas (red blocks at the western end of the map above). Exxon acquired 163 nearshore Texas tracts (blue in map above) at Sales 257 (94) and 259 (69).

Despite false starts by Exxon and Repsol (see above summary), no carbon sequestration (disposal) leases may be issued or developed until implementing regulations have been promulgated. In that regard, no news is good news for those who are less than enamored with CO2 disposal in the Gulf of Mexico.

The implementing regulations will be controversial. Most operating companies prioritize GoM production over GoM disposal. Most environmental organizations are strongly opposed to CO2 disposal schemes that sustain fossil fuel production and benefit fossil fuel producers. Taxpayers are leery of subsidizing these projects and absorbing increased costs for energy and consumer goods.

The Administration is, of course, well aware of this opposition and will not be publishing implementing regulations prior to the election. The next Administration, regardless of the election outcome, will no doubt take a hard look at these issues before proposing regulations.

The few oil and gas producers that are rather cynically hoping to cash in on CO2 disposal in the GoM will therefore have to wait, perhaps for a long time.

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Equinor buys 9.8% of Orsted – good counter cyclical investment or irrational pursuit of renewables goal

Posted in climate, energy policy, Norway, Offshore Wind, Uncategorized, tagged , , , , , on October 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »

Equinor, which is 2/3 owned by the Norwegian government, has purchased a nearly 10% stake in offshore wind giant Orsted (50.1% Danish govt ownership).

With bp and Shell reducing their wind energy investments, Equinor’s Orsted acquisition is a contrarian move. Equinor is also the only major oil company that is still in the market for new US offshore wind leases.

While the Orsted acquisition does not appear to have been directed by the Norwegian government, the State’s 2/3 ownership of the company no doubt influences renewable energy targets and broader corporate strategy.

The initial market reaction to the Orsted purchase was negative (see chart below). On a day when most oil companies’ share prices rose in response to the jump in oil prices, Equinor shares opened sharply lower.

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Wind turbine incident statistics

Posted in accidents, climate, Offshore Wind, UK, tagged , , on October 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »

Given the absence of industry and government data on wind turbine incidents, Scotland Against Spin (SAS) has done yeoman’s work in filling the void. SAS gathers information from press reports and official releases. A PDF of the latest SAS update summary is attached. You can view their complete incident compilation (318 pages) here. Kudos to SAS for their diligence.

As good as their work has been, SAS acknowledges that their information is far from complete and may only represent the tip of the wind turbine incident iceberg. Per SAS:

  • In 2011, RenewableUK confirmed that there had been 1500 wind turbine incidents in the UK alone in the previous 5 years.
  • In July 2019, EnergyVoice reported a total of 81 cases where workers had been injured on UK windfarms since 2014. The SAS table includes only 15 of these incidents (<19%).
  • In February 2021, the industry publication Wind Power Engineering and Development admitted to 865 offshore accidents during 2019. SAS captured only 4 (<0.5%).
  • A 13 August 2018 publication by Power Technology reported 737 incidents from UK offshore windfarms during 2016 alone, with the majority occurring during operations rather than development. 44% of medical emergencies were turbine related. In comparison, only 4 UK offshore incidents are listed in the SAS data – equivalent to 0.5%.

    Lars Herbst had previously reported, based on the Wind Power article cited above, that “with an estimated 700,000 blades in operation globally, there are, on average, 3,800 incidents of blade failure each year.” Lars noted that the annual blade failure rate of about 0.5% translates to 1.5% of all operating wind turbines experiencing a blade failure every year, a remarkably high failure frequency.

    A sad irony is that one of the five operational Vineyard Wind turbines experienced a very impactful blade failure less than 5 months after the project had begun delivering a limited amount of power and government officials were patting themselves on their backs and declaring victory.

    “This marks a turning point in the clean energy transition. After many decades of advocacy, research, policymaking, and finally construction, America’s offshore wind industry has gone from a dream to reality,” said Governor Maura Healey. “Across Massachusetts, in 30,000 homes and businesses, when you turn on the light, you will now be using clean, affordable energy. This will make the air we breathe safer and healthier, save customers money, and bring us one step closer to achieving net-zero emissions.” 

    Turbine-Accident-Summary-to-30-September-2024Download

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    It’s sad to see what is going on in the UK sector of the North Sea. Is this a preview of what to expect in the GoM?

    Posted in climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, UK, tagged , , , on October 3, 2024| Leave a Comment »

    See the video embedded below or view it here.

    Some of us are long-time observers of North Sea operations. Others like JL Daeschler are pioneers who were involved with North Sea exploration and development from the outset. It’s sad to see what is happening to the UK offshore industry.

    And for what purpose? Virtue signaling by politicians? Pandering to the international climate cartel? Shutting down North Sea production will have no measurable effect on our climate.

    Now that the entire U.S. Atlantic and Pacific, and nearly all of offshore Alaska, are closed to oil and gas leasing, the goal of some is to shut down the Gulf of Mexico. That intent is clear in the 5 year leasing plan that provides for a maximum of 3 sales, the fewest of any 5 year plan in the history of the US offshore program. This is really a 5 year moratorium, not a 5 year leasing plan.

    As noted in the post below, GoM production is 1.8 million bopd. BOEM’s reasonable forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 will not be achieved because of policy decisions, not resource limitations or technical capabilities.

    And shame on those who are attributing Hurricane Helene’s destruction to GHG emissions. This is uninformed opportunism at its worst.

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