Check out these capacity factors in Western Europe:
Die Dunkelflaute: wholesale electricity prices spiked to >€800 per megawatt hour—10 times the usual avg.
Archive for the ‘climate’ Category
No wind November
Posted in climate, Offshore Wind, tagged Die Dunkelflaute, electricity prices, Jens Christiansen, no wind November, windless Europe on November 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »
Denmark’s “ban” on oil and gas exploration, campaign against fossil fuels
Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 2050 production end, ban, Danish gas production, Denmark, oil and gas exploration, Orsted, Total on November 4, 2024| Leave a Comment »
As the table below illustrates, Denmark’s highly publicized oil and gas exploration ban is more pragmatic than has been reported in the media. The expansion of production from existing fields is not restricted.
| 12/4/2020 policy announcement | 10/29/2024 discovery announcement |
| Denmark has brought an immediate end to new oil and gas exploration in the Danish North Sea as part of a plan to phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2050. | TotalEnergies announces that the Harald East Middle Jurassic nearby exploration well (HEMJ-1X) has discovered additional gas condensate resources in the Harald field, in the Danish North Sea.“The success of the Harald East Middle Jurassic well, nearby our Harald facilities in Denmark, demonstrates the strength of our Exploration strategy.” |
As a result of new exploration, Danish gas production is on the rise (graphic below) after two decades of decline. August 2024 production (165.8 MMCFD) was 21% higher than August 2023 production (136.9 MMCFD)
While Total has proven to be resourceful in sustaining North Sea gas production, Denmark’s refusal to hold new licensing rounds dooms their production over the longer term. This is consistent with Denmark’s intent to cease domestic production by 2050. (Those of you who are young enough can report on whether that deadline is met 😉).
The demand for fossil fuels, which has yet to peak, will still be strong in 2050 and beyond. Phasing out domestic production may be Denmark’s choice, but it’s not a good choice for much of the world.
Denmark is a lovely country, but their rather smug commitment to “lead a global campaign on the role of fossil-fuel producing countries” is not universally welcome. Similarly, companies like Orsted (50.1% Danish govt ownership) are not always the best ambassadors for exporting Danish energy policy.
Other governments, including the US, are quite capable of risking their economic growth and energy security without Denmark’s help.
Related posts:
Encouraging study for ultra-deep geothermal fans
Posted in climate, drilling, tagged fractures at superhot conditions, gyrotron, Quaise Energy, supercritical water, ultradeep geothermal on October 18, 2024| 4 Comments »
Ultra-deep geothermal is arguably the renewable energy resource with the greatest long term potential. It is accessible everywhere, can replace thermal energy sources at existing power plants, and isn’t handicapped by the intermittency, space preemption, aesthetic, and wildlife protection challenges inherent in wind and solar development.
A new study found that rock that fractures at superhot conditions (see diagram above) can be ten times more permeable than rock that fractures at conditions closer to the Earth’s surface, and can also deform more readily.
Why is this important?
- More water can pass through fractures and become supercritical (see diagram below)
- Supercritical water “can penetrate fractures faster and more easily and can carry far more energy per well to the surface—roughly five to ten times the energy produced by today’s commercial geothermal wells.”
- The research confirms theoretical work reported earlier this year showing that the cracks that form create a dense “cloud of permeability” throughout the affected rock.
The next big step for ultra-deep geothermal is demonstrating the technology to efficiently drill wells to depths of ~20 km. In that regard, we are awaiting Quaise Energy’s field test of their gyrotron drilling system.
Nord Stream litigation: Insurers’ assertion is “embarrassing for want of particularity”
Posted in accidents, climate, pipelines, tagged Jeffrey Brodsky, litigation, Lloyds, Nord Stream, pipeline sabotage, Russia Ukraine conflict, Said Mahmoudi on October 14, 2024| 4 Comments »
Jeffrey Brodsky, a journalist who traveled to all four Nord Stream blast sites, shared Nord Stream AG’s response (attached) to the 30 Sept. court filing by the insurers.
Particularly noteworthy is Nord Stream’s response to the insurers’ claim (par. 22.2 (a) of their filing) that the pipeline damage was the result of “the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” In par. 13.1 of their response (attached), Nord Stream called the insurers’ assertion “embarrassing for want of particularity.” (clever wording that may prove useful in the future 😉)
Brodsky’s observations on the Nord Stream filing:
- Nord Stream AG calls the insurers (Lloyd’s and Arch) failure to provide evidence for the country that blew up the pipelines “embarrassing.” (See above comment.)
- Nord Stream argues that the insurers still must pay even if the sabotage was an act of war. This aligns with what legal scholar Said Mahmoudi told Brodsky.
- Mahmoudi: “The defendants’ argument is prima facie irrelevant if one cannot prove that the damage is caused by a named government that has been directly involved in a war in the area. The burden of proof in this case is…on the defendant.”
- Mahmoudi: “Even if the sabotage is an act of terrorism, the author of the act can be a state or a private entity.”
- Mahmoudi: “If a private entity, the insurance company, is the only source for the compensation; if a state is responsible for the terrorist act, it is the insurance company & that state that have a legal obligation to compensate for the damage.”
Related comment by Erik Andersson: Nord Stream AG has consistently claimed they should receive compensation regardless of whether or not a government was responsible for the sabotage. Nord Stream AG does not seem interested in providing an alternative to Lloyds’ claim that Ukraine did this as an act of war. (That horse might be too big to ride 😉)
Don’t expect to see OCS carbon disposal regulations prior to the election or perhaps for a long time after (regardless of who wins)
Posted in CCS, climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Regulation, tagged BOEM, carbon disposal, CCS regulations, Exxon, Gulf of Mexico, opposition to CCS, Repsol on October 10, 2024| Leave a Comment »
Despite false starts by Exxon and Repsol (see above summary), no carbon sequestration (disposal) leases may be issued or developed until implementing regulations have been promulgated. In that regard, no news is good news for those who are less than enamored with CO2 disposal in the Gulf of Mexico.
The implementing regulations will be controversial. Most operating companies prioritize GoM production over GoM disposal. Most environmental organizations are strongly opposed to CO2 disposal schemes that sustain fossil fuel production and benefit fossil fuel producers. Taxpayers are leery of subsidizing these projects and absorbing increased costs for energy and consumer goods.
The Administration is, of course, well aware of this opposition and will not be publishing implementing regulations prior to the election. The next Administration, regardless of the election outcome, will no doubt take a hard look at these issues before proposing regulations.
The few oil and gas producers that are rather cynically hoping to cash in on CO2 disposal in the GoM will therefore have to wait, perhaps for a long time.
Equinor buys 9.8% of Orsted – good counter cyclical investment or irrational pursuit of renewables goal
Posted in climate, energy policy, Norway, Offshore Wind, Uncategorized, tagged acquisition, Equinor, Norway, Offshore Wind, Orsted, renewable energy targets on October 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »
Equinor, which is 2/3 owned by the Norwegian government, has purchased a nearly 10% stake in offshore wind giant Orsted (50.1% Danish govt ownership).
With bp and Shell reducing their wind energy investments, Equinor’s Orsted acquisition is a contrarian move. Equinor is also the only major oil company that is still in the market for new US offshore wind leases.
While the Orsted acquisition does not appear to have been directed by the Norwegian government, the State’s 2/3 ownership of the company no doubt influences renewable energy targets and broader corporate strategy.
The initial market reaction to the Orsted purchase was negative (see chart below). On a day when most oil companies’ share prices rose in response to the jump in oil prices, Equinor shares opened sharply lower.
Wind turbine incident statistics
Posted in accidents, climate, Offshore Wind, UK, tagged Scotland Against Spin, Vineyard Wind, wind turbine incidents on October 7, 2024| Leave a Comment »
Given the absence of industry and government data on wind turbine incidents, Scotland Against Spin (SAS) has done yeoman’s work in filling the void. SAS gathers information from press reports and official releases. A PDF of the latest SAS update summary is attached. You can view their complete incident compilation (318 pages) here. Kudos to SAS for their diligence.
As good as their work has been, SAS acknowledges that their information is far from complete and may only represent the tip of the wind turbine incident iceberg. Per SAS:
- In 2011, RenewableUK confirmed that there had been 1500 wind turbine incidents in the UK alone in the previous 5 years.
- In July 2019, EnergyVoice reported a total of 81 cases where workers had been injured on UK windfarms since 2014. The SAS table includes only 15 of these incidents (<19%).
- In February 2021, the industry publication Wind Power Engineering and Development admitted to 865 offshore accidents during 2019. SAS captured only 4 (<0.5%).
- A 13 August 2018 publication by Power Technology reported 737 incidents from UK offshore windfarms during 2016 alone, with the majority occurring during operations rather than development. 44% of medical emergencies were turbine related. In comparison, only 4 UK offshore incidents are listed in the SAS data – equivalent to 0.5%.
Lars Herbst had previously reported, based on the Wind Power article cited above, that “with an estimated 700,000 blades in operation globally, there are, on average, 3,800 incidents of blade failure each year.” Lars noted that the annual blade failure rate of about 0.5% translates to 1.5% of all operating wind turbines experiencing a blade failure every year, a remarkably high failure frequency.
A sad irony is that one of the five operational Vineyard Wind turbines experienced a very impactful blade failure less than 5 months after the project had begun delivering a limited amount of power and government officials were patting themselves on their backs and declaring victory.
“This marks a turning point in the clean energy transition. After many decades of advocacy, research, policymaking, and finally construction, America’s offshore wind industry has gone from a dream to reality,” said Governor Maura Healey. “Across Massachusetts, in 30,000 homes and businesses, when you turn on the light, you will now be using clean, affordable energy. This will make the air we breathe safer and healthier, save customers money, and bring us one step closer to achieving net-zero emissions.”
It’s sad to see what is going on in the UK sector of the North Sea. Is this a preview of what to expect in the GoM?
Posted in climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, UK, tagged A Town Called Bruce, Gulf of Mexico production, UK offshore oil and gas, US 5 year leasing plan on October 3, 2024| Leave a Comment »
See the video embedded below or view it here.
Some of us are long-time observers of North Sea operations. Others like JL Daeschler are pioneers who were involved with North Sea exploration and development from the outset. It’s sad to see what is happening to the UK offshore industry.
And for what purpose? Virtue signaling by politicians? Pandering to the international climate cartel? Shutting down North Sea production will have no measurable effect on our climate.
Now that the entire U.S. Atlantic and Pacific, and nearly all of offshore Alaska, are closed to oil and gas leasing, the goal of some is to shut down the Gulf of Mexico. That intent is clear in the 5 year leasing plan that provides for a maximum of 3 sales, the fewest of any 5 year plan in the history of the US offshore program. This is really a 5 year moratorium, not a 5 year leasing plan.
As noted in the post below, GoM production is 1.8 million bopd. BOEM’s reasonable forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 will not be achieved because of policy decisions, not resource limitations or technical capabilities.
And shame on those who are attributing Hurricane Helene’s destruction to GHG emissions. This is uninformed opportunism at its worst.
Gulf of Mexico flaring and venting: 2023 data are encouraging, but further reductions should be an industry objective
Posted in climate, flaring and venting, Offshore Energy - General, tagged % gas flared, % gas vented, data, flaring and venting, gas well gas, methane, oil well gas, ONRR on September 25, 2024| Leave a Comment »
Note: I have attached a PDF for those who want to download the charts and table. I have also added a “flaring and venting” category for easy access to these posts.
Minimizing flaring and venting is important from both environmental and resource conservation standpoints. Flaring and venting volumes are also good indicators of how well production systems are designed, managed, and maintained.
The best performance indicators are the percentages of produced gas that are flared and vented both for oil-well gas (OWG, also known as associated gas or casinghead gas) and gas-well gas (GWG or non-associated gas).
I compile monthly flaring and venting volumes for the Gulf of Mexico using data submitted to the Office of Natural Resources Revenue (ONRR). Reporting these data is mandatory and strictly enforced. Violators are subject to civil and criminal penalties.
In assessing performance trends, it’s important to segment venting and flaring volumes for both OWG and GWG production. Venting produced gas (mostly methane) is a more significant environmental concern from both air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) perspectives. Reductions in methane emissions are a priority for regulators and leading operators.
Flaring and venting data for 2019-2023 are summarized in the charts and table below. All volumes are in millions of cubic feet (MMCF). For the last chart (% of total gas production vented), I added ONRR data for 2015-2018 to provide a longer term perspective on overall venting performance.
Observations:
- OWG venting has declined significantly both in terms of the total volume and % flared. Most OWG is now produced at modern deepwater platforms equipped with efficient flare stacks. Venting from these facilities is minimal. A performance target of <0.2% for OWG venting should therefore be achievable.
- GWG venting volumes have declined sharply. However, given the parallel decline in GWG production, the % of GWG vented has actually increased. Most gas wells are on older shelf platforms where flare booms cannot be safely and economically added. Nonetheless, it’s disappointing that the % of GWG vented increased to > 0.3% in both 2022 and 2023.
- OWG flaring has remained relatively constant both in terms of the volume and % flared. Given that most OWG is produced at deepwater facilities, reduction of the flaring % to <1.0 should be achievable.
- The % of the total gas flared or vented has remained relatively constant at >1.0%. Again, a target of <1.0% should be achievable.
- In the table, the figures in blue are particularly encouraging and the figures in red are the most disappointing.
- Overall, the numbers are good, but continuous improvement should be the objective. Reductions in GWG venting and OWG flaring should be prioritized.
- As previously discussed, flaring/venting performance could be better assessed if information on large flaring/venting episodes was made publicly available. Explanations are needed for spikes in monthly ONRR flaring/venting volumes. Are these spikes associated with production startups, tropical storm restarts, major compressor issues, administrative/accounting corrections, or something else?
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| OWG flared | 7727 | 7385 | 5919 | 6987 | 6342 |
| OWG vented | 2578 | 1984 | 1405 | 1638 | 1230 |
| OWG produced | 670,699 | 582,254 | 582,824 | 581,235 | 598,005 |
| % OWG flared | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| % OWG vented | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| GWG flared | 405 | 432 | 311 | 213 | 212 |
| GWG vented | 958 | 578 | 548 | 722 | 468 |
| GWG produced | 364,082 | 224,808 | 209,558 | 203,342 | 152,400 |
| %GWG flared | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| %GWG vented | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| total flared and vented | 11668 | 10233 | 8183 | 9559 | 8252 |
| total gas production | 1,034,782 | 807,062 | 792,382 | 784,577 | 750,405 |
| % flared or vented | 1.13 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| total vented | 3536 | 2416 | 1953 | 2360 | 1698 |
| % vented | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| total flared | 8132 | 7817 | 6230 | 7200 | 6554 |
| % flared | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 0.87 |
OWG=oil well gas; GWG=gas well gas; all volumes are in MMCF
U.S. sanctions itself, not Venezuela
Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, tagged 5 year leasing plan, elections, Maduro, production santions, US offshore oil and gas leasing, venezuela on September 24, 2024| Leave a Comment »
2024 will be the first year since 1958 without a single OCS oil and gas lease sale. There would not have been a sale in 2023 either were it not for a legislative mandate. The only 2022 lease sale was a micro-sale in the Cook Inlet that resulted in only a single bid. So, at the end of 2024 three years will have elapsed with only one meaningful sale, and that sale was mandated by Congress.
The current plan is for these de facto sanctions on US offshore production to continue. The Dept. of the Interior’s 5 year leasing plan includes a maximum of 3 sales, by far the fewest sales in any 5 year plan in OCS program history.
Meanwhile, the sanctions on Venezuelan production were further eased with the understanding that the Maduro regime would hold fair elections. To the surprise of no one, the evidence strongly suggests that those elections were not fair. Nonetheless, the sanctions on production have not been reimposed.
Apparently, the climate activists who have imposed their will on the OCS oil and gas program have less influence over our policy toward Venezuela. Or perhaps the production (and consumption) of Venezuelan oil is cleaner and greener (🙃 sarcasm intended!)
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 