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What’s next for OCS flaring and venting?

Posted in climate, flaring and venting, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , , on December 12, 2023| Leave a Comment »

Regardless of one’s opinion about the causes of climate change, minimizing methane emissions makes good safety, conservation, and environmental sense. The emerging international consensus on methane emission reductions thus merits broad industry and governmental support.

Because of the resource conservation mandate in the OCS Lands Act, minimizing the waste of natural gas has been a point of emphasis in the US offshore program for 50+ years. If you couldn’t utilize or market the natural gas, your project wouldn’t be approved. This requirement delayed the entry of some floating production systems into the Gulf of Mexico, but the pipeline network ultimately expanded to support deepwater development with floating units. Those associated with the offshore program are rightfully proud of their success in prohibiting the waste of gas and minimizing flaring and venting.

Despite the historical commitment to restricting flaring and venting, the data suggest that further improvement may be needed. The concerns listed below are based on the compilation and review of flaring and venting data that operators are required to report to ONRR.

  • The % of US OCS gas produced that is flared or vented is trending upward (first chart below).
  • Both the gas flaring and venting volumes were higher in 2022 (vs. 2021) despite lower gas production.
  • 2022 oil well gas (OWG) flaring volume increased by 18% vs. 2022 despite nearly identical total oil production
  • More regulator/industry transparency on flaring episodes is needed, particularly in light of the PNAS paper and the June 2022 Inspector General Report.
  • In particular, there should be a process for explaining large spikes in monthly flaring and venting volumes. Were these spikes associated with production startups, major compressor issues, administrative corrections, or other factors?
  • Venting, which is a more significant environmental concern than flaring, increased by 407 million cu ft (21%) in 2023 vs. 2022. Although the overall venting trend is still favorable (second chart), the 2022 jump should be explained.
  • The previously noted inconsistencies in flaring data sets remain a concern.
  • The fact that more gas-well gas (GWG) is being vented then flared implies that most such venting is on older shelf platforms (where there are more gas wells).
  • As summarized in the third chart below, deepwater facility methane emissions are consistent with the reported inventories, but shelf emissions in State and Federal waters differ significantly.
  • Regulating venting from older shelf platforms is difficult. About 15 years ago, the Federal government (MMS) considered requiring that older production platforms be retrofitted with flare booms, but safety, space limitations, and cost considerations precluded such a regulation. Instead, additional flaring/venting limits, and measurement and reporting requirements were imposed. What is next for these facilities?
  • Compiling and posting flaring and venting data should be a priority for BOEM/BSEE.
vented oil-well gas (VOWG) and vented gas-well gas (VGWG) vs. time
Total CH4 emissions for the GOM from inventories and observations for federal waters (Left) and state waters (Right). Observationally informed emissions are shown for the resampling of absolute flux rates (resampling approach A), with a mean and 95% confidence interval. The inventory estimates represent values adjusted for the year 2021. PNAS, 2023

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“While COP28 is going forward, freezing temperatures coupled with minimal generation from wind and solar have resulted in massive burning of fossils.” – Jens Christiansen

Posted in climate, energy policy, Uncategorized, Wind Energy, tagged , , , , on December 4, 2023| Leave a Comment »

The quote and graphic are from Jens Christiansen, a Danish physicist and nuclear power advocate.

Energy reality on display (vs. COP theater):

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New UK legislation provides for annual North Sea licensing rounds

Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, UK, tagged , , , , on November 9, 2023| Leave a Comment »

Each annual licensing round will only take place if key tests are met that support the transition to net zero. The first test is that the UK must be projected to import more oil and gas from other countries than it produces at home. 

The second is that the carbon emissions associated with the production of UK gas are lower than the equivalent emissions from imported liquefied natural gas. 

If both these tests are met, the NSTA will be required to invite applications for new licences annually.

GOV.UK

The “key tests” would seem to ensure annual licensing rounds for the foreseeable future. The charts below are from UK EiTi. The first chart illustrates the sharp decline in UK production over the past 20 years. The second and third charts illustrate the large projected gaps between supply and demand, particularly for natural gas.

In 2050, total production of oil and gas is estimated at ~10 million tonnes of oil equivalent. The projected 2050 demand is estimated at ~35 tonnes. For domestic production to exceed imports over the next 20-30 years, resource licensing and field development would have to be very successful and efficient.

Projections of UK Gas Demand and Production
Projections of UK Gas Demand and Production

With regard to the second test, carbon emissions from the production of UK gas should maintain their advantage over imported LNG given the energy required to liquefy and transport that gas.

It would have perhaps been more transparent to simply stipulate annual licensing rounds, but that would probably not have been politically acceptable.

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Deputy Secretary Beaudreau was “disrupted” in NYC two weeks before he announced that he was leaving DOI

Posted in climate, energy policy, Uncategorized, tagged , , , on November 2, 2023| Leave a Comment »

Deputy Secretary of the Interior Tommy Beaudreau was “disrupted” (perhaps a euphemism for the thuggish behavior demonstrated in the video clip below) by climate ultras in New York on Sept. 21. On Oct. 4, Mr. Beaudreau announced that he would be leaving the Dept. of the Interior.

The official announcement provides no reasons for his departure. By all accounts, Beaudreau was highly regarded by career employees in the Department. Was he troubled by his experience in NYC and the absence of a response from DOI? Was it difficult being a lone advocate for a more balanced energy policy?

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Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer is impressive, but their business strategy seems a bit hypocritical

Posted in climate, energy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , , , , on October 12, 2023| 2 Comments »

Impressive acquisition:

Hypocrisy?

  • Exxon is clearly intent on maximizing production in the Permian. This makes good business sense and is good for the US economy.
  • Contradictorily, Exxon intends to establish a CO2 disposal business (“carbon sequestration”) in the Gulf of Mexico. Is their goal to profit from emissions resulting from the consumption of the production that they are maximizing?
  • If Exxon believes the consumption of oil and gas is harmful to society, as suggested by their CO2 disposal plans, perhaps they should be curtailing their oil and gas production business rather than expanding it.
  • Deepwater Gulf of Mexico production, which Exxon has shunned, has much lower carbon intensity than Permian production, but Exxon’s sole GoM interest is CO2 disposal. Shouldn’t a company that is intent on reducing upstream GHG emissions be active in the leading offshore region in that regard, the region that is adjacent to their world headquarters?

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How NOT to manage our oil and gas leasing program

Posted in Alaska, climate, energy policy, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , on October 11, 2023| 1 Comment »

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Five year plan: proponents of offshore leasing won the popular vote by a convincing margin

Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , , on October 4, 2023| Leave a Comment »

BOEM’s five year plan presented one of the few recent opportunities to “vote” solely on the issue of offshore oil and gas leasing. Advocates facilitated the voting process by providing form letters for and against leasing. Both opponents and supporters are quite good at these campaigns, so neither side had a significant organizational advantage.

BOEM summarized (Table A-11 of the plan) the public comments, and I tabulated the 748,719 letters on the attached spreadsheet. The number of letters supporting oil and gas lease sales exceeded those opposed by 72,383 or 21.4%. The supporters campaign also had more breadth in that there were 49 separate campaigns vs. 45 for leasing opponents.

The NRDC demonstrated their organizational clout with the largest single campaign (107,355 letters). Denise Neal, a name that is unfamiliar to me, impressively organized the largest proponent campaign (61,122 letters).

Summary:

  • letters supporting offshore oil and gas leasing: 410,551
  • letters opposing offshore oil and gas leasing: 338,168
  • letter campaigns supporting leasing: 49
  • letter campaigns opposing leasing: 45
  • largest campaign: NRDC – 107,355 letters in opposition (32% of all such letters)
  • largest pro-leasing campaign: Denise Neal – 61,122 letters in support (15% of all letters in support)

Reasons for and against leasing per BOEM Table A-11:

Reasons for supporting lease salesReasons for opposing lease sales
reduce energy costs, farming costs, prices of gasoline and other goodsclimate
jobsenvironmental justice, local communities
energy independencefisheries
intl competitivenessmarine environment
national securitymarine mammals
GoM production is lower in carbon intensity, higher US environmental stds.fossil fuel dependency, unnecessary to meet energy needs, oppose new fossil fuel investments, leasing “would not reduce gas prices”
domestic oil and gas preferable during transitionoil spill risks
help improve supply chainair pollution
help address inflationstockpiling ocean space, energy price gouging

Interesting contradiction: Opponents of Sale 257 argued in Federal Court that BOEM failed to consider the positive GHG effect that higher prices (the logical result of lower production) would have as a result of reduced demand. The judge agreed with that argument and vacated the sale. Some of the same groups have now commented (per the BOEM summary) that additional leasing “would not reduce gas prices.”

leasing-plan-letters-sheet1-1Download

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Seinfeld-esque 5 year leasing plan

Posted in climate, energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged , , , on October 3, 2023| Leave a Comment »

The January 2022 post about a 5 year leasing plan with no lease sales would have been reality were it not for the congressional mandate in Section 50265(b)(2) of the IRA. That provision requires BOEM to offer at least 60 million OCS acres for oil and gas leasing within the 12 months prior to issuing an offshore wind lease. While I initially thought that requirement was petty, it is now apparent that without it we would have had a leasing plan with no lease sales.

The current leasing policy as articulated in both the draft and final proposed program is to phase out oil and gas production:

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease may not begin for a decade or more after lease issuance and can continue for decades, makes consideration of
net-zero pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations on how the National OCS Program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

p. 6, Five Year Leasing Plan

Basing leasing decisions on highly uncertain “net-zero pathways” would seem to be a considerable stretch of the Secretary’s authority under the OCS Lands Act. A strategic shutdown of the offshore oil and gas program, which would dramatically increase energy supply and security risks going forward, should be authorized by Congress. Even the threat of such a shutdown could have major economic implications.

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One year ago tomorrow the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged

Posted in climate, energy policy, Offshore Energy - General, pipelines, Uncategorized, tagged , , , , , on September 25, 2023| Leave a Comment »

Not only have no official findings been released, but there has been little new speculation since our June 2023 update. Given the political stakes, it is increasingly unlikely that the responsible parties will be identified.

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More on ultradeep microwave drilling for geothermal energy

Posted in climate, drilling, energy, Uncategorized, tagged , , , on September 21, 2023| 2 Comments »

As has been previously discussed on this blog, the renewable energy source that shows the greatest promise for generating the power needed to support economic growth is ultradeep geothermal.

This JPT article nicely describes the opportunities and challenges

Microwave drilling test. Source JPT/Quaise Energy

Good comparison of drilling into hard basement rock with conventional and millimeter wave (microwave) technologies:

The technical readiness level (TRL) for microwave drilling reflects that it has yet to be field tested. The drilling rate includes an estimated amount of flat time. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is an all-in estimate of the cost per megawatt-hour (MWh). Source: JPT/Quaise Energy.

Quaise Energy’s first full-scale testing of a hybrid drilling rig combining conventional rotary drilling and millimeter wave drilling capabilities is scheduled for 2024.

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