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Archive for January, 2025

Equinor’s investment in Orsted and their Empire Wind project in the US Atlantic are featured in this DN article (translated to English). Excerpts follow:

Equinor’s investment of over 26 billion kroner in the Danish wind power company Ørsted has so far been a financial disaster – and now it’s going from bad to worse.

We are very negative about the whole green initiative, as the return on the investments they make is far too low. When they also buy minority stakes in other green companies that we cannot count on, such as Ørsted, it means that we would rather own other oil companies.” Gaute Eie, Eika Kapitalforvaltning

The market has long been concerned that Equinor will throw money at renewable projects with low or no profitability.

In a recent note, Pareto analysts Tom Erik Kristiansen and Olav Haugerud point out that the Ørsted writedown does not bode well for Equinor’s own US projects either. They foresee a writedown of up to $1.1 billion, given that Equinor faces the same type of challenges as Ørsted.

Eie believes there is no reason why Equinor in particular should have a green initiative:

Aker BP is not doing green, Vår Energi is not doing green, and all the big oil companies are going back on this. Then we’ll see if Equinor has the guts to buy even more Ørsted shares, because now it’s 35 percent cheaper. If they do, we’ll have even fewer Equinor shares.

Sissener believes Equinor should rather focus on dividends and concentrate on oil and gas projects.

We generally stay away from companies where the state is a major owner, because there you have to be so politically correct all the time. What we need are shareholder-friendly board representatives who know how to run a business and maintain control. In a broader perspective, this helps to destroy trust in Norwegian business.

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Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Agreement:The US Ambassador to the UN shall immediately submit formal written notification of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

Regulatory Freeze: Agencies may not propose or issue a rule until approved by a Presidential appointee. OMB may exempt emergency or urgent rules (déjà vu for regulators 😉).

Alaska: Withdraws a Secretarial Order intended to halt ANWR oil and gas leasing. Rescinds cancellation of ANWR leases.

Gulf of America: Renaming the Gulf of Mexico.

Unleashing American Energy (long, main items highlighted below):

  • Encourage energy exploration and production on Federal lands and waters, including on the Outer Continental Shelf.
  • Eliminate the electric vehicle (EV) mandate.
  • Requires immediate review of actions that could burden the development of energy resources.
  • Develop and begin implementing action plans to suspend, revise, or rescind all unduly burdensome agency actions.
  • Revoke climate change and “clean energy” EOs.
  • Terminate all activities, programs, and operations associated with the American Climate Corps (RIP 😉).
  • Expedite and simplify permitting processes.
  • Facilitate the permitting and construction of interstate energy transportation and other critical energy infrastructure, including pipelines.
  • Disband the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.
  • Terminate the Green New Deal.  All agencies must immediately pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-169) or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58).
  • The Secretary of Energy is directed to restart reviews of applications for LNG export projects as expeditiously as possible.

Offshore Wind

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link

Title: Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects

Main points:

  • New leases: Immediately withdraws all OCS areas from wind leasing
  • Existing leases: Secretary of the Interior shall conduct a comprehensive review of the ecological, economic, and environmental necessity of terminating or amending any existing wind energy leases, identifying any legal bases for such removal, and submit a report with recommendations to the President
  • Review of Leasing and Permitting Practices:  The Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of Energy, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the heads of all other relevant agencies, shall not issue new or renewed approvals, rights of way, permits, leases, or loans for onshore or offshore wind projects pending the completion of a comprehensive assessment and review of Federal wind leasing and permitting practices. 

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A senior administration official who is familiar with the executive actions and authorized to brief Fox News Digital said Trump on day one will end “Catch and Release;” pause all offshore wind leases; terminate the electric vehicle mandate; abolish the Green New Deal; withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord; and take several major steps to assert presidential control over the federal bureaucracy.

The senior official told Fox News Digital that the energy executive order deals with “every single energy policy,” and addresses liquid natural gas, ports, fracking, pipelines, permitting and more, while also terminating President Biden polices he said “have constrained U.S. energy supply.” 

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Shell’s Whale floating production unit began producing this month:

  • estimated peak production:100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d)
  • water depth – 8600 ft
  • 200 miles south of Houston
  • estimated recoverable resource: 480 million boe.
  • first oil only 7.5 years after discovery (includes COVID delay)
  • Vito clone: replicates 99% of the hull design and 80% of the topsides from Vito.
  • high efficiency gas turbines and compression systems
  • ~ 30% lower greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity over its life cycle than the already efficient levels being achieved at Vito. (Why the push to run electric cables from shore to North Sea platforms with ample gas production?)

All 5 of the new simpler, safer, greener floating production units are now online:

platformoperatorfirst production
King’s QuayMurphyApril 2022
VitoShellFeb 2023
ArgosbpApril 2023
AnchorChevronAug 2024
WhaleShellJan 2025

This is all good, but what is next? Will technological advances once again sustain GoM production? The short answer appears to be yes!

The efficiencies achieved with the simpler platform designs combined with the high pressure (>15,000 psi) technology developed over the past 2 decades will facilitate production from the highly prospective Paleogene (Wilcox) deepwater fans. (For those interested in learning more about the geology, see the excellent presentation by Dr. Mike Sweet, Univ. of Texas, that is embedded in this post.)

Three major high-pressure projects, ala Chevron’s Anchor, are anticipated:

platformoperatordiscovery datefirst production
Kaskidabp20062029
SpartaShell20122028
ShenandoahBeacon20092025 Q2

The Gulf still has high production potential if properly managed with consistent lease sales.

Will Florida budge by supporting the lifting of the EGOM leasing moratorium? Here is why they should.

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The suspension order for the Vineyard Wind project was lifted on the last business day before the change in Administration and before the completion of the Federal investigation into the blade failure.

New Bedford Light report

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Burgum on offshore oil and gas lease sales: “The fact that during the current administration the lease sales have been so unpredictable and disruptive, and the fact that they’re projecting forward to have among the fewest we’ve ever had, almost would guarantee that we would see a decline in energy production in offshore in the years ahead because of the lead times.”

Link to the full Senate confirmation hearing

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BOEM interactive map of areas where leasing is now prohibited (I.e everywhere but the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico and the Cook Inlet)

The Cruz-Arrington bill (pasted below), which would reverse the Biden oil and gas leasing bans, raises some interesting political questions:

  • Will Florida Republicans support this first step toward leasing offshore Florida, even if only tracts >100 miles from shore would be offered?
  • Will Mid- and South Atlantic State Republicans support the bill?
  • Will some Democrats, particularly those representing interior states, support the bill?

I suspect that the answer to each question is no, which means the bill will be difficult to pass.

If the bill should pass, President Trump would presumably nullify his own Atlantic and Eastern Gulf withdrawals, which would otherwise remain in effect through 2032.

50 wells were drilled in the Atlantic between 1975 and 1985. The drilling followed the oil embargoes, gas lines, and price surges in the 1970s. Waiting for similar turmoil to overturn the leasing bans would not be prudent given the time that is needed to issue, explore, and develop leases. The optimal approach would be limited, staged leasing to better assess the resource potential in these areas.

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The NTSB has still not issued a final report, which is troubling. However, the detailed Operations Group Factual Report (including attachments) can be accessed in the case docket This and other items in the docket should be of interest to those involved with offshore operations and helicopter safety.

From the factual report, below are graphics showing the helideck damage and assumed final position of the helicopter.

Excerpts from the testimony of a worker at the platform who was part of an attempted search and rescue operation in the platform’s Whitaker escape capsule:

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Below is a nice shot of the Stena Carron seen from the Stena DrillMAX offshore Guyana. The DrillMAX returned to Guyana after drilling the high potential Persephone well in the Orphan Basin offshore Newfoundland. Unfortunately, the Orphan Basin well failed to discover commercial hydrocarbons.

Richard Bounds photo posted by OilNow

StenaDrilling shows the current locations of the 2 drillships. The DrillMAX is northwest of the Carron.

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