“Today’s announcement delivers on Harbour’s long-standing ambition to establish a presence in the deepwater Gulf of America. With LLOG, we found the right combination of high-quality assets and a talented team, providing a strong strategic and cultural fit with our company. The transaction positions us as a leading player in a region with well-established infrastructure, a supportive fiscal and regulatory environment and opportunities for additional growth.”
LLOG was the 6th largest Gulf of America producer of both oil and gas in 2024 with production of 27 million bbls of oil and 34 BCF of gas. LLOG was the high bidder on 11 tracts in the recent BBG1 sale.
Harbour is not currently a Gulf of America leaseholder.
Reuters had reported that Shell was in advanced talks to acquire LLOG. Apparently, either Shell lost interest or Harbour made a more attractive offer.
Which majors will be the most active bidders? BP (50 high bids), Chevron (22), and Shell (12)
Will former Gulf of Mexico stalwarts Exxon and Conoco Phillips participate for the first time in years? They did not.
How many companies will submit bids? Would like that to be a number >35. Only 30 companies participated.
How many tracts will receive bids? A number >300 would be very encouraging. Only 181 tracts received bids.
Will the total high bids exceed $400 million? No, the total was $279.4 million.
Will we see an increase in shelf interest? Shelf bidding continued to be limited (map). Renaissance, Byron, Arena, GOM Shelf LLC, Walter, W&T, Cantium, and WYOTEX Offshore submitted bids for shelf leases.
Which independents will be the most active? Woodside and Murphy are large independents, and their participation was most impressive. Murphy submitted 14 high bids totaling $27.4 million. Woodside had 8 high bids including the sale’s two highest for a total of $38.1 million, second only to BP in terms of the sum of their high bids.
The sale was beautifully conducted by BOEM, and Leslie Beyer – Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management, Dept of the Interior – and Matt Giacona, Acting BOEM Director, delivered strong messages in support of the OCS oil and gas program.
However, as a colleague commented just after the sale, it was beautiful but not big. He and I expected more given the time since the last sale and the attractive terms.
Below is a comparison with the previous 3 Gulf sales. More to follow.
Sale No.
257
259
261
BBG1
date
11/17/2021
3/29/2023
12/20/2023
12/10/2025
companies participating
33
32
26
30
total bids
2233
2842
3161
219
tracts receiving bids
2143
2442
2751
181
sum of all bids $millions
198.5
309.8
441.9
371.9
sum of high bids ($millions)
101.7
263.8
382.2
279.4
highest bid company block
$10,001,252.00 Anadarko AC 259
$15,911,947 Chevron KC 96
$25,500,085 Anadarko MC 389
$18,592,086 Chevron KC 25
most high bids company sum ($millions)
46 bp 29.0
75 Chevron 108.0
65 Shell 69.0
50 bp 61.0
sum of high bids ($millions) company
47.1 Chevron
108 Chevron
88.3 Hess
61.0 bp
most high bids by independent
14-DG Expl.
13-Beacon 13-Red Willow
22-Red Willow
14-Murphy
1excludes 36 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 2excludes 69 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 3excludes 94 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes
Will the oil and gas lease sale boldly named Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1) live up to its grand name? Given the more favorable lease terms and the 2 year gap since the last sale, BBG1 should surpass the previous 3 sales (table below). Questions:
Which majors will be the most active bidders? Chevron? Shell? BP? Oxy/Anadarko?
Will former Gulf of Mexico stalwarts Exxon and Conoco Phillips participate for the first time in years? Probably not, but US super-majors should participate in the US offshore program.
How many companies will submit bids? Would like that to be a number >35.
How many tracts will receive bids? A number >300 would be very encouraging.
Will the total high bids exceed $400 million?
Will we see an increase in shelf interest?
Which independents will be the most active?
After the not-so-clever carbon disposal acquisitions in the last 3 sales, will the number of carbon disposal bids be zero? For the first time ever, the Federal government felt compelled to stipulate the obvious (see the proposed notice for OCS Sale 262) – that an Oil and Gas Lease Sale is only for oil and gas exploration and development.
See the summary data below for the last 3 Gulf lease sales. We’ll fill in the blanks next week.
Sale No.
257
259
261
BBG1
date
11/17/2021
3/29/2023
12/20/2023
12/10/2025
companies participating
33
32
26
total bids
2233
2842
3161
tracts receiving bids
2143
2442
2751
sum of all bids $millions
198.5
309.8
441.9
sum of high bids ($millions)
101.7
263.8
382.2
highest bid company block
$10,001,252.00 Anadarko AC 259
$15,911,947 Chevron KC 96
$25,500,085 Anadarko MC 389
most high bids company sum ($millions)
46 bp 29.0
75 Chevron 108.0
65 Shell 69.0
sum of high bids ($millions) company
47.1 Chevron
108 Chevron
88.3 Hess
most high bids by independent
14-DG Expl.
13-Beacon 13-Red Willow
22-Red Willow
1excludes 36 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 2excludes 69 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 3excludes 94 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes
“Natural gas and LNG are fast becoming the gravitational center of the global energy system, but some energy experts said the world is only beginning to grasp the scale of what’s to come.” ~Natural Gas Intelligence
Demand and high well producibility are stimulating exploration in the high pressure, high temperature Western Haynesville (Texas) and other ultradeep onshore gas prospects. Is it time to revisit ultradeep gas on the Gulf of America shelf? See the above targets map from 2004.
20 years ago Newfield, Exxon, and McMoRan drilled pioneering ultradeep wells targeting gas-prone reservoirs below salt welds in Miocene and older formations (diagrams below). The water depths were <100 feet but well depths exceeding 30,000 feet, and high temperatures and pressures, pushed the limits of drilling technology at the time. Noteworthy wells:
Blackbeard West (Exxon): Spudded in early 2005 in 70 feet of water in South Timbalier Block 168. The target was gas in Miocene sands at 27,000-32,000 feet total depth. Drilling reached 30,067 feet by 2006, but was prudently suspended due to extreme pressures, temperatures (up to 600°F), and technical challenges with equipment.
Blackbeard West, part 2: In 2008, McMoRan re-entered the well with upgraded equipment and drilled to a record 32,997 feet below the mudline. They encountered hydrocarbon shows in multiple zones, including potential gas pay in Middle and Deep Miocene sands below 30,000 feet, validating the ultradeep concept.
Followup McMorRan wells:
Blackbeard East (2010-2011): Drilled to 33,400 feet in South Timbalier Block 144, logged potential hydrocarbons in Sparta and Vicksburg sands.
Davy Jones (2009-2010): South Marsh Island Block 230 in 20 feet of water; reached 29,122 feet; discovered gas in Wilcox sands, but faced flow-testing challenges.
Lafitte (2011): Eugene Island Block 223, found additional pay in ultradeep Miocene zones. These wells targeted gas reservoirs but encountered operational hurdles.
Also, note that a company targeting hydrocarbons below 25,000 feet (true vertical depth subsurface) may earn an additional 3 years on their lease. (See the Notice for next week’s lease sale.) Will improved technology and demand expectations finally open the ultradeep gas frontier?
In JPMorgan’s view, the stage is set for a potential decline of as much as 50% in oil prices through the end of 2027, taking Brent crude down to the low $30s per barrel range from its current level of around $63.50.
Will bearish forecasts by JPMorgan and others temper bidding at the highly anticipated, and long awaited, Gulf lease sale to be held on 12/10/2025? Probably not for these reasons:
Given the longer term nature of deepwater development, production will not begin for years following lease issuance. Note that anticipated first production for 3 new high-pressure deepwater projects, Kaskida, Sparta, and Tiber, will be 23, 16, and 21 years after the field discovery dates.
To the extent that price forecasts are reliable at all (see no. 9 in the image below), the degree of uncertainty for longer term forecasts is particularly high.
The sale has to live up to its name Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1). 😉
The Gulf oil patch got a pass in 2025! 2026 is anyone’s guess.
As was the case in 2023, there were no tropical storm production shut-ins in the Gulf in 2025. Per the chart below derived from BSEE data, only 4 tropical storms caused platform shut-ins in the past 5 years. This lull followed a 6-storm year in 2020.
The Minerals Management Service Technology Assessment and Research Program began closely studying hurricane damage to offshore facilities following Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Dr. Charles Smith was a leader in these efforts. Attached is a comprehensive study report on Andrew’s effects on offshore platforms. Three background paragraphs are pasted below.
The press release and full program are linked. It looks like the most recent leaks were accurate. See the maps below with the locations and dates. This will stir the pot!
Tyler Priest, the leading historian on US offshore oil and gas operations, has published another gem. His book, Offshore Oildom, is a fascinating account of the history of the technologically innovative and economically important, yet highly controversial, OCS Oil and Gas program. His bookis highly recommended.
Consider this recommendation by Daniel Yergin:
“Tyler Priest, a preeminent historian of energy and the environment, explores how a single well drilled off a pier near Santa Barbara in 1898 gave rise to a major American industry—offshore oil and gas. In spirited prose, Priest demonstrates how this U.S. industry was created not only by innovation, creative engineering, and complex execution; it was also the result of fierce political battles.” ~Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 