Feeds:
Posts
Comments

As is evident from the first table below, the EIA’s new short-term production forecast for the Gulf of Mexico differs significantly from the optimistic BOEM forecast.

The EIA 2022 figure is spot-on, as it should be given that 10 months of 2022 production data are now in hand. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast (published in July) missed the mark considerably. (In fairness to BOEM staff, their work was probably completed months before publication pending internal reviews.)

Of greater concern, given the policy implications, is the rosy BOEM forecast for the out-years. Despite historically low levels of leasing and exploratory drilling, BOEM forecasts oil production to exceed 2 million BOPD through 2027 and to remain well above the current (2022) level through 2031 (second table below).

As previously noted, the authors of the proposed 5 year OCS leasing plan have used the BOEM forecasts to justify a skeleton leasing plan that is unprecedented in program history. Contrary to the OCS Lands Act’s mandate and EIA projections regarding future oil and gas consumption, the proposed leasing plan not so subtly announces the intention to phase out the offshore oil and gas program.

202220232024
EIA1.751.871.85
BOEM1.8922.0002.013
Notes: (1) forecasts are for average daily production – millions of barrels
(2) actual 2022 production averaged 1.74 million BOPD through Oct.

I was a freshman at Penn State when MLK was assassinated, and I very clearly remember when a fellow resident of Shunk Hall came into my room and told me what happened. Dr. King had spoken at Penn State a few years earlier, shortly after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, and was much admired at the university.

Dr. King’s passion, leadership, courage, and communication skills were extraordinary, and his commitment to non-violence set him apart. Truly a great man.

Konstantin Kisin

OCNJDaily

While it’s unlikely that the whale strandings are the result of pre-construction activities for offshore wind development, greater transparency on the part of the developer and regulators would be helpful:

  • What surveys and other offshore activities are being conducted? Where?
  • What is the timeframe for these activities?
  • Any sightings of distressed whales?
  • Other anomalous observations?

Absent regular activity updates, accusations and protests are likely to continue and intensify.

Weekend wisdom

The Ministry of Energy and Business of the Government of Barbados announces the postponement of the Barbados 2022 Offshore Licensing Round, which was scheduled to commence on December 1, 2022. The Offshore Licensing Round will now be launched in Q1, 2023.

Barbados Ministry of Energy and Business

This gives us more time to prepare the comprehensive BOE bid. Our team is old and slow, which is how we missed out on Guyana 😉😀

My former colleague John Smith, an expert on Pacific Region decommissioning, advises me that production has ceased at Platform Irene in the Santa Maria Basin offshore California. Irene, the first platform installed in the Santa Maria District in 1985, was a milestone in Pacific OCS development.

Only 7 of the 23 Pacific OCS platforms are still producing. Attached is an updated summary table that John prepared for an upcoming SPE event in Alaska.

More on California OCS decommissioning.

Platform Irene, Santa Maria Basin

Offshore gas has important environmental advantages, particularly nonassociated gas-well gas (GWG). While the GoM production chart (below) is not pretty, there are signs that gas production may have bottomed and is slowly rising. This is largely due to growth in oil-well gas (OWG) associated with deepwater oil production.

A successful offshore program requires a mix of strategies, and it is encouraging that companies are still pursuing natural gas on the GoM shelf. The second chart (below), based on BOEM data, shows 2022 YTD (probably through Oct.) GWG production for the 11 companies that (1) produced more GWG than OWG and (2) produced more than 1 BCF of GWG.

Interestingly, 100% of the gas produced by Contango, Samchully, and Helis in 2022 was from gas wells. Contrast this with bp, the third largest GoM gas producer. None of bp’s gas production was from gas wells.

One has to wonder about the extent to which deepwater gas reservoirs are being stranded due to the less favorable economics. Preventing such resource losses was once an important regulatory consideration given the conservation mandate in the OCS Lands Act and the importance of maximizing the public benefit. However, current policy, as expressed in the proposed 5 year leasing plan, is to phase out offshore production rather than sustain it. This is difficult to reconcile.

Liz is an experienced attorney and leader in clean energy, climate change, and environmental law and policy. A member of the Biden-Harris administration since January 20, 2021, Liz has served as Senior Counselor to Secretary Haaland with an emphasis on water policy and climate change resilience. In this role, Liz also served as Chair of the Indian Water Rights Working Group, which manages, negotiates and implements settlements of water rights claims.

Prior to joining the Administration, Liz was Deputy Director of the non-partisan State Energy & Environmental Impact Center at NYU School of Law, which supports state Attorneys General addressing clean energy, climate, and environmental initiatives of regional and national importance. President Biden is the third President under which Liz has served at Interior, having worked for both the Clinton and Obama administrations. Under Secretaries Ken Salazar and Sally Jewell, Liz served as Interior’s Associate Deputy Secretary as well as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Office of Policy, Management and Budget. She was a key architect of the Obama Administration’s work to create a new offshore wind industry and leasing program.

DOI

Congratulations to Ms. Klein on being appointed to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. In addition to her commendable support for offshore wind energy, I trust that she appreciates the national importance of the OCS oil and gas program and the need for regular lease sales.

Ram Powell TLP
  • Talos has announced commercial discoveries at its Lime Rock and Venice prospects.
  • Both discoveries are near the company’s Ram Powell platform, where future production will flow via subsea tiebacks.
  • The Lime Rock prospect was acquired in Lease Sale 256 in November of 2020.
  • The new discoveries will help sustain production at Ram Powell, an early tension leg platform that has produced more than 250 million boe.
  • Ram Powell was the deepest production facility in the world (water depth of 3216′) when it was installed by Shell in 1997.
  • Access to nearby resources through regular lease sales facilitates continued production from existing platforms, reducing costs and environmental impacts.