Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.
Victoria Nuland’s glee over the Nord Stream damage (video clip below) is particularly galling to those responsible for offshore production, worker safety, and environmental protection. Does she realize that the Gulf of Mexico has more than 13,000 miles of active offshore pipeline that could be similarly targeted, and that the US has 2.6 million miles of onshore pipelines?
Whether or not the US was involved in the Nord Stream sabotage, Ms. Nuland’s schadenfreude is disturbing given the economic and security implications of the attack.
Only 3 years after first oil, Guyana’s offshore production has soared to nearly 400,000 BOPD, and that rate should triple by 2027. If you want to see the production details, Guyana is doing a good job posting their oil and gas production data.
The startup and compressor issues that contributed to high gas flaring volumes seem to have been resolved, and the recent flaring record is exceptional. Over the month of November 2022, the volume flared averaged less than 0.2% of the gas produced, better than the 1.0-1.5% flaring/venting rate for oil-well gas in US GoM from 2015-2021. Using the World Bank’s flaring intensity metric (m3/bbl), the current flaring intensity for Guyana is a remarkable ~0.07 m3 flared per bbl of oil produced.
The next step is to use the associated offshore gas to power Guyana. The two videos embedded below, while promotional, provide good information on plans to use natural gas for onshore power generation, new industry, and other beneficial purposes. This step will only use 50 million cu ft/day, leas than 1/8 the volume that is currently being reinjected. Increased use of the associated gas resource will be dependent on expanded pipeline and power generation capabilities, and LNG facilities to provide for gas exports.
“There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage,” said one European official, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.
As we approach the end of 2022, I’m still waiting for:
Nord Stream Pipelines sabotage report(s): Will Denmark, Germany, and Sweden publish reports? Will the responsible parties be identified? I surely hope this wasn’t a US/UK operation.
Huntington Beach Pipeline Spill investigation report: >14 months since the spill and still no report. What vessel(s) struck the pipeline? The pipeline operator seems to have had minimal responsibility but has been vilified. How will the vessel owner(s) be penalized?
Offshore Incident Statistics (BSEE): Still no data for 2021 or 2022. The previous OCS safety regulator (MMS) updated these tables at the end of each quarter.
BSEE/Coast Guard investigation reports for two 2020 GoM occupational fatalities that have yet to be documented. Also waiting for the reports on a 1/24/2021 fatality, a 5/15/2021 explosion and fatality, and a 3/25/2022 fatality. Lives were lost. When will we find out what happened and why?
As reported by Tagespiegel, the EU states have agreed to better protect critical infrastructure. Yet apparently the status of the Nord Stream investigation(s) was not discussed. When will the findings be released? How and when will the responsible parties be identified?
Sweden’s prosecutor’s office said Friday that an investigation into gas leaks from two underwater pipelines connecting Russia to Germany found traces of explosives, confirming that it is a case of “serious sabotage.”
Using satellite data, SpaceKnow detected 2 “dark ships” near the pipelines prior to the explosions. The ships were operating with their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned off or malfunctioning. While this is cause for suspicion, no data were provided on the frequency of such issues in the Baltic. Also, what were the specific routes and timelines for these vessels? Absent this information. the “dark ship” reports aren’t terribly meaningful.
Although the assumption that the explosions occurred outside the pipeline seems most likely, some observers have suggested that the explosions were internal. It’s unknown whether the investigators have ruled out this possibility.
Meanwhile, the folks in Germany and elsewhere in Europe are understandably impatient. They want answers from their governments!