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Archive for the ‘Offshore Energy – General’ Category

1,698,557 BOPD per BSEE. Updated recovery chart:

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Shell Offshore Inc. (Shell), a subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc, conducted an initial flyover of our assets in the path of Hurricane Ida. During this initial flight, we observed damage to our West Delta-143 (WD-143) offshore facilities. When it is safe to do so, we will send personnel offshore to provide a closer inspection of these facilities to understand the full extent of the damage and the degree to which our production in the Gulf of Mexico will likely be impacted.

Shell news release

This is a very significant report given the importance of the WD 143 platform in transferring all production from Shell facilities in the “Mars corridor.” These facilities include the Mars, Olympus, and Ursa platforms.

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In a bit of a surprise, the volume of shut-in GoM oil production rebounded to more than 1.7 million BOPD (see BSEE’s 9/2 update). Because several deepwater platforms had reportedly resumed production, the sharp increase in shut-in volumes could have something to do with downstream facility damage or bottlenecks. The daily Ida shut-in volumes are plotted below.

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Presumably, most of the restored GoM production is from platforms like Exxon Hoover that were not subjected to hurricane conditions. Per BSEE, the total oil production shut-in as of 9/1 is 1,455,279.

The latest EIA production report for June 2021 has just been released and GoM oil production averaged 1.825 million BOPD.

from EIA data

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In light of the ongoing litigation regarding the Department of the Interior’s “leasing pause,” DOI’s Record of Decision for Sale 257 is most encouraging. The viewpoints expressed in the two quotes below are fundamental to the future of the OCS Oil and Gas Program. Hopefully, all parties can put aside their differences and build upon these consensus views.

While offshore exploration and development cannot be made risk free, OCS oil- and gas-related activities can be conducted safely and responsibly with strong regulatory oversight and appropriate measures to protect human safety and the environment.

ROD, p. 5

The decision to hold Lease Sale 257 recognizes the role that GOM oil and gas resources play in addressing the Nation’s demand for domestic energy sources and fosters economic benefits, including employment, labor income, and tax revenues, which are highest in Gulf Coast States and also distributed widely across the United States. Revenues from offshore oil and gas lease sales support national conservation programs and coastal resiliency for applicable coastal states and political subdivisions under the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006.

ROD, p. 7

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Consistent with expectations, more than 1.7 million BOPD remains shut-in. Exxon announced that crews are resuming operations at their deepwater Hoover platform. Hoover is west of the Ida storm track and incurred no damage.

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As expected, BSEE’s 8/30 update indicates that the shut-in production volumes remain about the same. The process of inspecting facilities, returning workers (some of whom may be dealing with damage and other challenges at home), and restoring production will take some time.

Other than the sketchy reports about the Globetrotter II, there is no information on Ida-related offshore incidents at this time. .

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Port Fourchon, the service hub for the deepwater Gulf, took a direct hit from Ida. This is why you evacuate (including offshore platforms).

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Per BSEE’s 8/28 update, 90.84% of GoM oil production is reported to be shut-in. Given that there is some uncertainty in both the numerator (production shut-in) and the denominator (base production), there is a margin of error (~5%?) in that figure. The large discrepancy in the % of manned facilities evacuated (only 50) and % of oil production shut-in (90+) illustrates the dominance of deepwater facilities, mostly shut-in, in GoM oil production.

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Map from Weather.com

In light of the projected storm track for Ida, forecasting uncertainty, and the need to err on the side of caution in making evacuation and shut-in decisions, particularly for deepwater facilities, look for at least 75% of Gulf of Mexico oil production (approximately 1.3 million BOPD) to be shut-in temporarily.

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