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Excerpt from Press Secretary Psaki’s (2/24/2022) response to a question about lifting restrictions on the energy industry:

A. There’s also plenty of oil leases that are not being tapped into by oil companies, so you should talk to them about that and why.

  • Hopefully, this was a glib response that is not indicative of the Administration’s understanding of oil and gas exploration and development.
  • When you acquire a lease, you aren’t buying a certain amount of oil and gas in the ground that you can simply produce at your leisure. You are buying the opportunity to explore for and, if you are fortunate, produce oil and gas.
  • Exploration begins with the acquisition, processing, and evaluation of geophysical and other data. If these data are encouraging, you seek internal, partner, and regulatory approvals to drill exploratory wells. The drilling of unnecessary wells makes no sense from any standpoint: financial, safety, or environmental.
  • You have a limited amount of time to initiate production depending on the terms of your lease. Otherwise you lose the lease. The Federal regulators are strict about this, as they should be.

As has been noted on this blog, recent offshore exploration activity is not sufficient to sustain current production levels. The absence of regular lease sales is an important factor. The UK Energy Minister commented recently about the importance of new licensing and continued investment. Norway has also taken steps to encourage such activity. Note the emphasis on predictability in this statement from the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy:

Predictability about which areas it is possible to apply for in APA (allocation in predefined areas; i.e. leasing or licensing) and regular replenishment of new area is important to achieve an effective exploration. APA rounds are therefore conducted annually.

This is inexcusable if true:

A federal investigation into the October oil spill that paved the Orange County coast has been stalled for several months as authorities await approval to cut, remove and analyze part of the ruptured pipeline.

LA Times

Coast Guard and National Transportation Safety Board investigators currently have to rely on video captured during underwater pipeline inspections. Without a more detailed forensic examination of the damage in a lab, investigators won’t know whether to continue with their original investigation or move the investigation in a new direction.

LA Times

It’s not good when bureaucratic processes stall an important investigation. Hopefully the responsible agencies will be sufficiently embarrassed to get the investigation moving.

Bad decision by Blackstone; worse timing. Putin and OPEC must be pleased.

Blackstone Inc., once a major player in shale patches, is telling clients its private equity arm will no longer invest in the exploration and production of oil and gas, according to people with knowledge of the talks. The firm’s next energy fund won’t back those upstream investments — a first for the strategy.

Bloomberg

Meanwhile:

As the United States continues to tie its hands with regard to the transportation of natural gas, a fuel that has actually led to a large decrease in CO2 emissions over coal, Russia and China reached an agreement under which Russia will supply 100 million tons of coal to China so that China can continue to open up new coal-fired power plants

Forbes

Embargo Russia, not US producers!

Britain sees a “good, solid” future for the North Sea’s oil and gas industry and will issue new licences to expand output in the future, Energy Minister Greg Hands said on Tuesday.

“We need continued investment into the North Sea,” Hands told the International Energy Week online conference.

Reuters

Meanwhile, the US government seems intent on supporting legal and administrative actions that stymie offshore exploration and development. The US is sanctioning its own offshore industry during an international crisis centered around energy.

2021 was the first year in the history of the US offshore program dating back to the passage of the OCS Lands Act in 1953 without a single oil and gas sale, and there is no lease sale on the horizon. Most years have had multiple sales, regardless of the party in power. The only attempted 2021 sale (no. 257) was required by a Federal Court decision in Louisiana. That sale was annulled by a questionable DC court decision that the Federal government chose not to appeal.

The New York Times calls out the CDC for not releasing Covid data:

Kristen Nordlund, a spokeswoman for the C.D.C., said the agency has been slow to release the different streams of data “because basically, at the end of the day, it’s not yet ready for prime time.” She said the agency’s “priority when gathering any data is to ensure that it’s accurate and actionable.”

Another reason is fear that the information might be misinterpreted, Ms. Nordlund said.

“The C.D.C. is a political organization as much as it is a public health organization,” said Samuel Scarpino, managing director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute. “The steps that it takes to get something like this released are often well outside of the control of many of the scientists that work at the C.D.C.”

BOE and others interested in offshore safety have expressed similar frustration over delays in the release of incident data and reports by BSEE and the Coast Guard, and the limited inspection data that are publicly available. As is the case with the CDC, we suspect these issues have more to do with bureaucratic obstacles than technical limitations or staff reluctance.

From an excellent FT article:

BP owns almost a fifth of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft. UK-listed rival Shell controls 27.5 per cent of Gazprom’s huge Sakhalin-2 offshore gas project in Russia’s far east. Exxon has been operating in Russia for 25 years and producing oil and gas in eastern Russia since 2005 in a partnership involving two Rosneft affiliates.

Financial Times

More than 20 European countries import gas from Russia. The Czech Republic and Latvia import 100% of their gas from Russia. Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, and Poland import more than half of their gas from Russia.

Clumsy sanctions could send oil and gas prices soaring to Russia’s benefit and the West’s detriment. We should first remove the sanctions that have intentionally and inadvertently been imposed on our own producers, including leasing blockades and permitting obstacles. The Ukraine crisis and its side effects will be with us for years, as will the demand for oil and gas. We need both immediate and longer term supply solutions.

The rig count remains low at 12 (see the updated chart below). Per BSEE’s borehole file, only 3 deepwater exploratory wells have been spudded in 2022 YTD (2/21) – one each for Shell, Hess, and Anadarko.

What’s going on? Better opportunities elsewhere? Uncertainty about lease sales? Concerns about legal challenges and the future of the US offshore program?

Meanwhile, however, drillers may be running out of sweet spots in the shale basins of the country. In an article citing well data, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that because of the quick depletion rates of shale wells, low-cost resources are giving way to higher-cost deposits. And this is motivating a warier approach to production growth.

Markets Insider

The shale revolution made the US a net oil exporter, but skepticism about shale production forecasts suggests the need for other supply sources. Given the shale uncertainty and the unrealistic expectations regarding the energy transition, greater US dependence on imported oil is on the horizon. This bodes well for OPEC, but not so well for US and international consumers.

BOE post, 1/4/2022

Yet Lease Sale 257 was vacated because BOEM didn’t analyze the GHG reduction that would result from reduced international consumption caused by zero US leasing (and thus higher oil and gas prices). Fortunately US onshore production on private land is not subject to this absurd and economically destructive level of oversight.

On 2/11/2022 Judge Cain (Western District of Louisiana) issued ruled that a Biden executive order contradicts Congress’ intent regarding the consideration of global effects:

The Court finds that EO 13990 contradicts Congress’ intent regarding legislative rulemaking by mandating consideration of the global effects. The Court further finds that the President lacks power to promulgate fundamentally transformative legislative rules in areas of vast political, social, and economic importance, thus, the issuance of EO 13990 violates the major questions doctrine.

p. 33 of the ruling

Judge Cain’s order seems, at least to this non-lawyer, to contradict the 1/27/2022 ruling by Judge Contreras, DC Federal Court, that BOEM “acted arbitrarily and capriciously in excluding foreign consumption from their greenhouse gas emissions calculation.” The plaintiffs had asserted that BOEM failed to consider the effect that reduced US offshore production (and higher prices) would have on foreign consumption and the associated GHG emissions. (Poverty is good?)

February 2022:

For a second time this week, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), called on the OPEC+ group on Wednesday to narrow the widening gap between its production quotas and the much lower actual supply to the market.

OilPrice.com

May 2021:

There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway

IEA Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector

So much for what remains of the IEA’s credibility.