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BOEM’s 2022 production forecast, which was just published in July, was 1.9 million BOPD, and will likely be a full 10% too high for the year. One has to assume that the staff work was completed well before the document was actually published. Of greater concern, BOEM’s longer term production forecast, along with unrealistic expectations for the “transition,” were used to justify a subminimal 5 year leasing plan with the fewest sales in history.

For the first time since May 18, 1984, when the SPR was being filled, the reserve has fallen below 400 million barrels.

In their filing with the Massachusetts Dept. of Public utilities, Commonwealth Wind has requested a one month suspension in the review of the power purchase agreements:

In particular, this suspension would allow the parties to examine the effect of unprecedented commodity price increases, interest rate hikes, and supply shortages on the overall viability of Commonwealth Wind’s offshore wind generation project that is the subject of the PPAs (the “Project”), including whether it remains economic and whether it can be financed under the current terms of the PPAs. A one-month suspension would also enable the parties to consider potential approaches to restore the Project’s viability – including cost saving measures, tax incentives under the newly enacted Inflation Reduction Act, an increase in the PPA prices, and improvements to Project efficiencies – and to determine whether additional time, beyond the period requested in this Motion, is needed to resolve the appropriate path forward or provide a complete record.

At a minimum, the expected commercial operation date, already more than 5 years into the future (2028), would seem to be threatened.

More Halloween horror reported by our friends in Wyoming:

The supply of diesel in the United States has dropped to its lowest seasonal level since 1945, according to federal data, meaning there’s less than a month of the fuel stockpiled in the country. 

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday that British navy personnel blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, a claim that London said was false and designed to distract from Russian military failures in Ukraine.

No evidence was presented to support the Russian claim; nor was any information provided on the results of their blitz investigation.

Advice from Lars Herbst, distinguished offshore energy leader: “Help the Energy Crisis – Drink more Jack Daniels”

Tennessee Twist:TC Energy’s $29.3 million investment in a RNG (renewable natural gas) production facility near the Jack Daniel’s Distillery will see the Canadian operator producing RNG with a carbon-intensity score that is 50% lower than traditional natural gas, saving up to 16,000 tonnes of CO2e per year, according to the company.

“This investment is our first in the production of renewable natural gas,” said Corey Hessen, TC Energy executive vice president and president, power & Energy solutions. “The production of RNG onsite at the Jack Daniel’s Distillery offers TC Energy one more opportunity to meet the challenge of growing energy needs and reducing emissions while providing customers with access to an affordable, reliable, source of energy.”

JPT

It’s a great country! 😀

It looks like it might be.

Nord Stream AG, or the operator of Nord Stream 1 pipeline, sent a specially equipped vessel on Thursday to investigate damage to the pipelines under the Baltic Sea.

Nord Stream AG, whose majority shareholder is Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom, said the chartered vessel arrived at the location of damage in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone. 

The vessel, bearing the Russian flag, would have specialists aboard to assess the damage within a day and investigation would take three to five days, the company said.

Nord Stream AG said it didn’t have relevant permits to conduct an investigation until now.

DW

That’s a fast investigation!

NASA has identified 50+ super-emitters of methane including sites in Turkmenistan (image below) that emit an estimated 111,000 pounds per hour.

 

By comparison, vented Gulf of Mexico methane emissions in 2021 totaled 1953 mmcf. This converts to 82 million pounds at atmospheric pressure and 60°F. The identified Turkmenistan sources would thus release the amount of methane in a month that all Gulf of Mexico facilities vent in a year (2021).

East of Hazar, Turkmenistan, a port city on the Caspian Sea, 12 plumes of methane stream westward. The plumes were detected by NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation mission and some of them stretch for more than 20 miles (32 kilometers).

ONRR mandatory production reporting data are being sorted to assess GoM flaring and venting trends. This will help resolve inconsistencies previously identified. In the meantime, the table below summarizes the 2021 data. 1.03% of the gas produced that year was flared or vented. 0.25% of the gas production was vented.

Interestingly, more gas-well gas was vented than flared. This is presumably because older shelf facilities without flare booms still produce 25% of the gas (versus only 7% of the oil), mostly from gas wells. More to follow.

gas
production
flared (%)vented (%)flared &
vented (%)
OWG582,2045919 (1.01)1405 (0.24)7324 (1.26)
GWG209,779311 (0.15)548 (0.26)859 (0.41)
total 791,9836230 (0.79)1953 (0.25)8183 (1.03)
OWG=oil well gas; GWG=gas well gas; all volumes are in MMCF
Offshore

Per BOEM’s leasing data base, all 94 of the Sale 257 “carbon sequestration leases” (blue) were issued with an effective date of 10/1/2022. However, Sale 257 was an oil and gas sale, and the leases do not convey carbon sequestration rights. Each lease will expire in 5 years absent oil and gas production or ongoing drilling operations.

These oil and gas leases may not be repurposed for sequestration or other purposes unless an alternate use RUE is issued competitively in accordance with 30 CFR § 585.1007.

So what’s next for these 94 leases, 31% of the entire sale?