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Archive for the ‘Offshore Energy – General’ Category

Senator Manchin and the Alaska delegation criticized the DOI decision memo for Sale 258. The memo implied that the highest allowable royalty rate was chosen to minimize bidder interest and limit future production. Unfortunately, the “Inflation Reduction Act,” which mandated these lease sales, was not particularly helpful in creating interest in the less attractive OCS tracts like those in the Cook Inlet and the shallower waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Sec. 50261 of the IRA raised the minimum allowable royalty rate from 12 1/2% to 16 2/3%, while capping the maximum rate at 18 3/4%. This provision favors deepwater operators, typically majors and large independents, whose royalty rates were capped at 18 3/4%, the same rate as for previous OCS sales.

Conversely, the IRA royalty provisions penalize the smaller companies and gleaners who are critical to sustaining shallow water (shelf) operations, including environmentally favorable nonassociated (gas-well) natural gas production, by raising the minimum royalty rate to 16 2/3%. DOI exacerbated IRA’s impact by electing to charge the highest allowable royalty rate for Cook Inlet and GoM shelf leases. The net result was a 50% royalty rate increase from prior sales (12.5 to 18.75%).

The table below illustrates the royalty rate implications of the IRA language and the DOI decisions.

AreaSaleDate% royalty: <200m water depth% royalty: >200m water depth
Cook Inlet2446/21/201712.512.5
GoM25611/18/202012.518.75
GoM25711/17/202112.518.75
Cook Inlet25812/30/202218.7518.75
GoM2593/29/202318.7518.75

Notes:

  • The base primary term for GoM shelf leases is only 5 years vs. 10 years for leases in .>800 m of water.
  • In lease year 8 and beyond the rental rates are nearly double for shelf leases vs. deepwater leases ($40/ac vs. $22/ac).
  • While deepwater development typically requires more time, the higher rental penalty for delayed shelf production (which must be approved by BSEE) is not warranted. $40/acre or $240,000 per year (plus inspection and permitting fees) is a high cost for a marginal shelf lease.
  • Cook Inlet Sale 244 drew 14 high bids totaling more than $3 million. Sale 258 drew only 1 bid of $64,000. While many factors influence lease sale participation, the 50% increase in royalty rate certainly made the Cook Inlet leases less attractive.
  • Other than the increased royalty rate, the terms for both Cook Inlet sales were essentially the same. The primary lease term was 10 years and the minimum bonus bid was $25/hectare for both sales. The rental rate was increased by only $3/hectare ($13 to $16).

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That is the amount of oil the US government has “borrowed” from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve without replacing. At $80/bbl, that’s ~$28 billion worth of oil. Not refilling the SPR exposes the US to much greater costs, in terms of economic and national security risks. Those who were around during the 1970’s certainly remember the embargoes and the resulting disruptions that led to the establishment of the SPR.

The SPR has a fill rate of only 685,000 bopd, so a complete refill would require 518 days, which would have to be spread over years because of supply, operational, maintenance, and price considerations. The promised purchase of 3 million bbls in February never occurred, and we are now told that DOE “would like to start buying within the next year, depending on the window of opportunity.” This is not particularly encouraging, especially given that the mandatory sale of another 26 million bbls is upcoming this spring. So it looks like the SPR may be down another 20+ million barrels heading into 2024, an election year. Good luck making significant purchases then.

This is the hole we are in as a result of non-emergency SPR sales for price moderation purposes. Meanwhile, Congress has proposed the following legislation:

The last bill is interesting, but has little chance of passing and would be difficult to implement given other legislative, judicial, and administrative constraints on leasing and production. Having a plan is one thing; implementing it is quite something else.

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Presentations from the January 2023 HSAC meeting have now been posted. None of the presentations addresses the tragic crash in the Gulf of Mexico on 29 December. This is understandable given the ongoing investigation.

Attached is an update from the Helideck Committee which also addresses wind farm issues.

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An internal memo from the U.S. Interior Department suggesting that the agency set the highest possible royalty fee on potential oil and gas development before last year’s Cook Inlet lease sale is drawing blowback from the Democratic chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin said in a statement he was “appalled” by the memo, which he said was leaked and prioritized a “radical climate agenda” over the energy needs of Alaskans and the U.S.

Anchorage Daily News

From the decision memo:

While a 16 ⅔ percent royalty may be more likely to facilitate expeditious and orderly development of OCS resources and potentially offer greater energy security to residents of the State of Alaska, a reasonable balancing of the environmental and economic factors for the American public favors the maximum 18 ¾ percent royalty for Cook Inlet leases.

Sale 258 Decision Memo

The lower royalty rate probably would not have made much difference in the outcome of this sale, which only drew one bid, but the attitude expressed in the decision memo is rather disappointing given the Department’s mission, as expressed in the OCS Lands Act, to make resources available for expeditious and orderly development.

What might have made the sale more attractive was royalty suspensions, Option D.5.b (below). This would have been the best means of supporting the objectives of Senator Manchin, the other authors of the congressional leasing mandate, and the State of Alaska.

Option D.5.b: Offer Royalty Suspensions
BOEM could offer royalty suspensions with the goal of making resources available for expeditious and orderly development. However, BOEM does not recommend royalty suspensions as the recommended lease term options are expected to balance the goals outlined earlier in this memo

Sale 258 Decision Memo

Those who are concerned by the Sale 258 Decision Memo should be more troubled by the Proposed 5 Year Leasing Plan, most notably this stunning sentence which justifies the minimalist plan and signals a phasing out of offshore oil and gas leasing:

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

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“I am of a firm view that the world will need oil and gas for a long time to come,” (Shell Chief Executive) Sawan, who started the job on Jan. 1, told Times Radio in the U.K. on Friday. “As such, cutting oil and gas production is not healthy.

Back in 2021, Shell predicted that its own oil production would decline every year and drop by as much as 18% by 2030. BP had a similar outlook, but CEO Bernard Looney rolled back its climate targets this year and said it will increase investment in exploration and production.

BP and Shell have trailed their U.S. peers in price to earnings ratios. Analysts have said investors interested in exposure to oil and gas have shunned them for putting more money into renewables, while investors focusing on environmental concerns haven’t rewarded them. That’s kept European energy firms trading at a discount.

Barron’s

It will never happen, but a separate company composed of BP and/or Shell upstream US assets would be very attractive to investors.

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Lawrence Livermore is receiving attention for concluding that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak in Wuhan.

This reminded me of an important Lawrence Livermore project that was funded by the Minerals Management Service in 1995. The study considered seismic hazard criteria for offshore platforms on the California OCS. My colleague Dr. Charles Smith, a structural engineer, had an important role in this research. Charles had been instrumental in the establishment of an earthquake measurement network in the Pacific Region. The measurement system at Platform Grace in the Santa Barbara Channel  successfully recorded 5 earthquakes and the structural responses at multiple locations on the platform.

Lawrence Livermore and the other national laboratories have many outstanding scientists and engineers. The national labs do excellent work, although their studies are a bit pricey 😉

Platform Grace

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A group of international shipping companies and their subsidiaries tentatively agreed Wednesday to pay $96.5 million to Houston-based Amplify Energy Corp. to dismiss one of the last remaining lawsuits over the oil spill, which sent at least 25,000 gallons of crude into the waters off Huntington Beach in October 2021.

LA Times
MSC Danit and Beijing were ID’d by Sky Truth as likely dragging anchors over the damaged Beta Unit pipeline

Although the Coast Guard’s investigation report has yet to be published, available information suggests that the pipeline was well maintained and that Amplify’s Beta Unit facilities had a good safety and compliance record. Absent the anchor dragging captured in the above image, a spill would have been highly unlikely. The large settlement in favor of Amplify is therefore quite understandable.

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Whoever blew up the Nord Stream pipelines was not entirely successful in that one of the Nord Stream 2 lines was apparently undamaged. What is next for that line? Will the two Nord Stream 1 and the other Nord Stream 2 pipelines be repaired?

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Comments on 2022 oil production:

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BOEM’s new procedures, which have been published for public comment, seem reasonable. However, it would be helpful to learn more about the testing of the new methodology. (See the quote below). Further, would the rejected Sale 257 bid have been accepted? What was the LBCI for that tract? Would any accepted Sale 257 bids have been rejected? Would the outcome of other sales have been affected?

After a 2-year comprehensive technical review of the delayed valuation methodology, BOEM intends to replace the delayed valuation methodology with a statistical lower bound confidence interval (LBCI) at a 90 percent confidence level as a decision criterion for accepting or rejecting qualified high bids on tracts offered in OCS oil and gas lease sales. Following extensive testing of the alternative approaches using both historical and current lease sale tract data and existing BOEM cash flow simulation models, BOEM determined that the LBCI approach would be the most appropriate substitute for the delayed valuation methodology. The LBCI is a statistical concept that captures the lower bound of a range of values encompassing the true unknown mean of the risked present worth of the resources at the time of the lease sale. The LBCI incorporates the uncertainty of parameters unique to the valuation of each OCS oil and gas lease sale tract. These parameters may include, but are not limited to, subsurface characterization of reservoir properties, cost and timing of the development, and projected revenues. Unlike the delayed valuation methodology, the LBCI approach would not require that BOEM estimate the time delay period between the current OCS oil and gas lease sale and the projected next lease sale. As such, BOEM finds the LBCI to be a better approach going forward.

Federal Register

Below is the flow chart for the new procedures. It’s interesting that high bids on nonviable tracts are automatically (and gratefully) accepted! 😉

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