WSJ: “How many multibillion-dollar projects must go bust before a Governor comes to his senses? The answer is blowing in the wind, but New Jersey’s Phil Murphy doesn’t seem to be listening.”
Ouch!:Note how it’s always the developers that give up on these projects and never the state, despite the awful prospects for ratepayers. Gov. Murphy has treated renewable energy as a sacred cause no matter the costs since 2018. That includes a bill he signed to let Ørsted pocket federal credits it had promised to pass on to customers, though he clawed money back when the projects died.”
“The NJ Board of Public Utilities will not proceed with an award in New Jersey’s fourth offshore wind solicitation,” said Christine Guhl-Sadovy, President, New Jersey Board of Public Utilities.
Not a single offshore wind turbine will be installed offshore New Jersey during the reign of Gov. Murphy, a leading proponent of offshore wind. How much did his wind advocacy cost NJ taxpayers?
Equinor’s investment of over 26 billion kroner in the Danish wind power company Ørsted has so far been a financial disaster – and now it’s going from bad to worse.
“We are very negative about the whole green initiative, as the return on the investments they make is far too low. When they also buy minority stakes in other green companies that we cannot count on, such as Ørsted, it means that we would rather own other oil companies.” Gaute Eie, Eika Kapitalforvaltning
The market has long been concerned that Equinor will throw money at renewable projects with low or no profitability.
In a recent note, Pareto analysts Tom Erik Kristiansen and Olav Haugerud point out that the Ørsted writedown does not bode well for Equinor’s own US projects either. They foresee a writedown of up to $1.1 billion, given that Equinor faces the same type of challenges as Ørsted.
Eie believes there is no reason why Equinor in particular should have a green initiative:
Aker BP is not doing green, Vår Energi is not doing green, and all the big oil companies are going back on this. Then we’ll see if Equinor has the guts to buy even more Ørsted shares, because now it’s 35 percent cheaper. If they do, we’ll have even fewer Equinor shares.
Sissener believes Equinor should rather focus on dividends and concentrate on oil and gas projects.
– We generally stay away from companies where the state is a major owner, because there you have to be so politically correct all the time. What we need are shareholder-friendly board representatives who know how to run a business and maintain control. In a broader perspective, this helps to destroy trust in Norwegian business.
Title: Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects
Main points:
New leases: Immediately withdraws all OCS areas from wind leasing
Existing leases: Secretary of the Interior shall conduct a comprehensive review of the ecological, economic, and environmental necessity of terminating or amending any existing wind energy leases, identifying any legal bases for such removal, and submit a report with recommendations to the President
Review of Leasing and Permitting Practices: The Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of Energy, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the heads of all other relevant agencies, shall not issue new or renewed approvals, rights of way, permits, leases, or loans for onshore or offshore wind projects pending the completion of a comprehensive assessment and review of Federal wind leasing and permitting practices.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will independently finance, build, own, and operate a grid-scale fusion power plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia.
Dominion Energy will provide non-financial collaboration, including development and technical expertise as well as leasing rights for the proposed site.
This pioneering plant will generate 400 MW of continuous energy on 25 acres (total site is 100 acres). By comparison, Dominion Energy’s offshore wind project, which will include 176 turbines and 3 offshore substations, will intermittently produce (on average) 1092 MW (2600 MW x 0.42 capacity factor).
Gov. Youngkin emphasized that the project will be financed entirely by CFS, with no costs passed on to Dominion Energy ratepayers. (Good news for us Dominion Energy customers! 😀)
Fusion technology works by combining hydrogen isotopes — deuterium extracted from water and tritium from lithium — under extreme heat and pressure, using powerful magnets to fuse the elements. The process generates heat, which boils water to create steam that spins a turbine, producing electricity. The byproduct is helium.
Why BOE, and most everyone else, likes nuclear fusion:
Clean and sustainable power source.
Unlike traditional nuclear power plants that rely on fission, fusion replicates the energy-producing process of the sun.
Modest space requirements.
Generates four times more energy per kilogram of fuel than fission and nearly four million times more energy than burning oil or coal.
No radioactive waste
Safe energy source; no risk of a meltdown event
Nuclear Regulatory Commission has determined that fusion technology, unlike fission, does not require a federal license.
The implications of advanced nuclear technology, not only the holy grail of fusion energy, but also modular fission reactors, for intermittent wind and solar power are substantial.Ultradeep geothermalis on a similar timeframe, and could also supersede wind and solar.
The logic behind costly offshore wind projects is therefore questionable, and the regulators better make sure that the decommissioning of these facilities is fully funded. The most likely long-term scenario is for natural gas to continue meeting most power generation needs as the nuclear and ultradeep geothermal alternatives are phased in.
More about fusion. Most of you can start at Level 3. 😉
From the Protect Our Coast – NJ Facebook page: “During his interview with Radio Host Dom Giordano on Monday, December 23, NJ Congressman Jeff VanDrew (pictured), stated an executive order, to be signed by President Trump on January 20, 2025 will place a 6 months pause on further construction of Offshore Wind Turbines while our new administration reviews all aspects of these highly controversial structures in our ocean.“
We’ll see what transpires, and if this post is accurate, await clarification and reactions.
Per a provision in the “Inflation Reduction Act,” no offshore wind leases may be issued after 12/20/2024, the one year anniversary of the last oil and gas lease sale (no. 261).
Although the 4 leases receiving bids at the most recent wind sale (10/29/2024, Gulf of Maine) have presumably been issued, BOEM’s lease table does not reflect that. If those leases have not been issued, it’s too late now.
Assuming that the Gulf of Maine leases have in fact already been issued, the legislative restriction on issuing new leases should not be an issue. A qualifying oil and gas lease sale will likely be held in the Gulf of Mexico in the first half of 2025.
The bigger question is whether the new administration will hold any wind lease sales. Pre-election energy policy comments imply that new wind sales are unlikely.
The table below illustrates the dramatic decline in bidding for Atlantic wind leases over the past 2 years. (The California sale is also included in the table.)
offshore area
sale date
leases sold
acres leased
bonus bids ($ millions)
$/acre
NY/NJ
2/2022
6
488,000
4,370
8955
California
12/2022
5
373,268
757.1
2028
Central Atl.
8/2024
2
277,948
92.65
333
Gulf of Maine
10/2024
4
439,096
21.9
50
Accepting that bidding at the 2/2022 sale, which averaged nearly $9000/acre, was irrationally exuberant, bidding at this week’s sale was still incredibly weak. Even the bids at the Central Atlantic sale, just 2 months ago, averaged $333/acre, 6.7 times higher than the Gulf of Maine bids.
Do the Gulf of Maine bids pass BOEM’s fair market value tests? Apparently so; the sale notice established $50/acre as the minimum bid, and that is where the bidding started and ended. Invenergy and Avangrid had no competition and presumably got the tracts they wanted at the lowest possible price. We’ll see how this works out for the companies and power consumers.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 