May Gulf of Mexico production fell 55,000 bopd from April. BOEM’s 2024 production forecast of 2.013 million bopd will likely be more than 200,000 bopd too high. Their forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 is increasingly doubtful. Leasing policies intended to prevent production from rising too high do not bode well for the longer term.
The dearth of deepwater discoveries over the past 6 years (chart below derived from BOEM data) should be a major concern to those engaged in energy policy. Technical innovation has facilitated simpler, safer, and greener deepwater development. However, most of those discoveries were made 7-15 years ago.
The decline in discoveries is no surprise given the decline in deepwater exploratory drilling documented by Lars Herbst in Dec. 2022. That trend continues, and the BSEE data summarized below indicate that deepwater exploratory drilling has remained at historically low levels.
Onshore oil and gas production, mostly from private lands, has responded to growing US demand, but the offshore sector could be contributing more and offers some important advantages:
The Deepwater Advantage: fewer facilities + fewer wells + high production rates + efficient power generation + advanced processing + restricted flaring + pipeline transportation = fewer environmental impacts and low GHG intensity production
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 