Some of us are long-time observers of North Sea operations. Others like JL Daeschler are pioneers who were involved with North Sea exploration and development from the outset. It’s sad to see what is happening to the UK offshore industry.
And for what purpose? Virtue signaling by politicians? Pandering to the international climate cartel? Shutting down North Sea production will have no measurable effect on our climate.
Now that the entire U.S. Atlantic and Pacific, and nearly all of offshore Alaska, are closed to oil and gas leasing, the goal of some is to shut down the Gulf of Mexico. That intent is clear in the 5 year leasing plan that provides for a maximum of 3 sales, the fewest of any 5 year plan in the history of the US offshore program. This is really a 5 year moratorium, not a 5 year leasing plan.
As noted in the post below, GoM production is 1.8 million bopd. BOEM’s reasonable forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 will not be achieved because of policy decisions, not resource limitations or technical capabilities.
And shame on those who are attributing Hurricane Helene’s destruction to GHG emissions. This is uninformed opportunism at its worst.
This video shows the real cost of Ed Miliband’s plans to shut down the North Sea.
200,000 workers left stranded, billions in tax revenue lost, and clean energy investment deterred.
The stability in Gulf of Mexico oil production rates, as noted when the data for June were released, continued into July. Oil production once again remained remarkably consistent at 1.8 million bopd.
Average daily production was within 1.4% of 1.8 million bopd for each month from February to July. As previously observed, this is as stable as production has been for any 6 month period in the past 10 years.I’m not sure this observation is terribly significant, but it’s interesting nonetheless. 😀
If the streak didn’t end in August, it most certainly did in September given the shut-ins for Hurricanes Francine and Helene.
floating turbine being positioned in Kincardine wind farm
The 50 MW Kincardine Offshore Windfarm, which is billed as the “world’s largest floating wind farm,” experienced a £30 million loss in 2023 following a £18 million loss in 2022. The turbines are located 15 km off the coast of Aberdeenshire, in water depths ranging from 60 m to 80 m.
The graphic below summarizes the 2023 financial results, which were even worse than those for the prior years of operation. For those who want more detail, I have attached the 2023 audited financial statement for the wind farm. You can also view audited statements for prior years.
Although BOEM was forced to “postpone” the Oregon wind sale given the absence of bidders, opposition from tribes and county governments, and a last minute letter from the Governor (political cover?), California still seems to be all in on the development of the 5 deepwater wind leases in Federal waters.
It cost them 46 million quid to make 13 million quid's worth of electricity!
This text message from a close friend of my wife gives you a sense of the enormous challenges being experienced by so many in the wake of the flooding. As background, she lives in the Asheville area. Her home and car were completely destroyed. She was rescued by her brother (subject of the update below), who lived an hour away.
“Thank you. I am at ER. My brother began getting chest pains. Emt came and carted him out on a stretcher. Changed from emergency vehicle to ambulance a few miles down the road. He hasn’t even got here yet. I’ll be called when he is checked in. Fireman drove me here in his truck. Ushered me through the hospital p-lot maze then the long winding path to ER. Thanx for letting the others know. The hospital has a good signal. Even a few blinking traffic lights. The area where I live is devastated. We evacuated to the upper hills where the folks living there took us in. We were completely stranded 2 days until the younger, stronger people devised a path and bushwhacked a way out for cars already on the hill the first car got out this morning. More later…love and thanks to all.♥♥♥“
The Nantucket non-profit ACK for Whales (ACK is the FAA abbreviation for Nantucket Airport) has petitioned the Supreme Court to review the 1st Circuit’s ruling on the Vineyard Wind project. Per the Supreme Court filing (full document attached):
Despite the agencies’ explicit statutory duty to consider all “best information available,” regarding the impacts its actions might have on an endangered or threatened species and those habitats, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), did not consider the cumulative impacts of other planned projects when they authorized and issued permits to construct the Vineyard Wind 1 Project.
Will the Supreme Court accept the case?
“Hail Mary:” Per the Nantucket Current, the odds that the Supreme Court justices will accept the case are exceedingly slim. Of the 7,000 cases that the Supreme Court is asked to review each year, only 100 to 150 of them – about 2 percent – are accepted.
“Really good chance:” Per Val Oliver, ACK for Whales founding director, “In light of the recent Chevron decision, we think we have a really good chance. That was about government overreach and that is what this (Vineyard Wind) has felt like since the beginning: go, go, go, and we’ll figure it out as we go. That’s just not responsible.“
Regardless of the outcome of this case, there is a profound inconsistency in the administration of the Endangered Species Act as evidenced by our comparison of the operating restrictions for the Right whale (Atlantic wind) and Rice’s whale (Gulf of Mexico oil and gas). Note that the more onerous Rice’s whale restrictions were removed by court order.
Just when the media seemed to be settling on rogue Ukrainians in a rented yacht being responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, comments by a Danish harbor master have muddied the waters.
On the second anniversary of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, the Danish publication Politiken posted comments from John Anker Nielsen, harbor master on Christiansø, the small Danish Island near the explosion sites.
“For the first few days, the harbor master said he was “not allowed to say a thing”. But today, John Anker Nielsen can reveal that four or five days before the Nord Stream blasts, he was out with the rescue service on Christiansø because there were some ships with switched-off radios. They turned out to be American naval vessels, and when the rescue service approached, they were told by Naval Command to turn back.Therefore, the harbor master has some faith in the theory that American star journalist Seymour Hersh, among others, has put forward without any documentation: that the US was behind the sabotage. The Americans have these small unmanned submarines that can solve any task, John Anker Nielsen has been told.”
Erik commented further:
The harbor master isn’t making this up. He wasn’t alone on the rescue vessel ordered to stay clear of the American warships.
Update: BSEE reports that as of 9/29/2024, essentially all production had been restored.
As of 9/28, 210,000 BOPD remained shut-in with only 4 platforms still evacuated. Presumably, production had not resumed (or had only partially resumed) on some high rate deepwater platforms.
BSEE shut-in, evacuation, and relocation data in the table below are as of 12:30 p.m. ET on the specified date.
“I am disappointed that BOEM’s accelerated process over the last year has further divided stakeholder communities, and put the Confederated Tribes of the Coos, Lower Umpqua and Siuslaw Indians in the position of challenging BOEM in federal district court. Oregon’s legislative Coastal Caucus is likewise now in full opposition to BOEM’s proposed lease.“
Despite the usual hype about the number of homes that could be powered and “good-paying jobs,” the upcoming Oregon wind lease appears to be very much in doubt. If legal action by Oregon tribes doesn’t halt or delay the sale, the absence of bidders may.
OregonLive reports that only one company, NewSun Energy, continues to be interested in participating in the sale. NewSun is primarily a solar energy developer with no apparent offshore wind experience.
Note: I have attached a PDF for those who want to download the charts and table.I have also added a “flaring and venting” category for easy access to these posts.
Minimizing flaring and venting is important from both environmental and resource conservation standpoints.Flaring and venting volumes are also good indicators of how well production systems are designed, managed, and maintained.
The best performance indicators are the percentages of produced gas that are flared and vented both for oil-well gas (OWG, also known as associated gas or casinghead gas) and gas-well gas (GWG or non-associated gas).
I compile monthly flaring and venting volumes for the Gulf of Mexico using data submitted to the Office of Natural Resources Revenue (ONRR). Reporting these data is mandatory and strictly enforced. Violators are subject to civil and criminal penalties.
In assessing performance trends, it’s important to segment venting and flaring volumes for both OWG and GWG production. Venting produced gas (mostly methane) is a more significant environmental concern from both air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) perspectives. Reductions in methane emissions are a priority for regulators and leading operators.
Flaring and venting data for 2019-2023 are summarized in the charts and table below. All volumes are in millions of cubic feet (MMCF). For the last chart (% of total gas production vented), I added ONRR data for 2015-2018 to provide a longer term perspective on overall venting performance.
Observations:
OWG venting has declined significantly both in terms of the total volume and % flared. Most OWG is now produced at modern deepwater platforms equipped with efficient flare stacks. Venting from these facilities is minimal. A performance target of <0.2% for OWG venting should therefore be achievable.
GWG venting volumes have declined sharply. However, given the parallel decline in GWG production, the % of GWG vented has actually increased. Most gas wells are on older shelf platforms where flare booms cannot be safely and economically added. Nonetheless, it’s disappointing that the % of GWG vented increased to > 0.3% in both 2022 and 2023.
OWG flaring has remained relatively constant both in terms of the volume and % flared. Given that most OWG is produced at deepwater facilities, reduction of the flaring % to <1.0 should be achievable.
The % of the total gas flared or vented has remained relatively constant at >1.0%. Again, a target of <1.0% should be achievable.
In the table, the figures in blue are particularly encouraging and the figures in red are the most disappointing.
Overall, the numbers are good, but continuous improvement should be the objective. Reductions in GWG venting and OWG flaring should be prioritized.
As previously discussed, flaring/venting performance could be better assessed if information on large flaring/venting episodes was made publicly available. Explanations are needed for spikes in monthly ONRR flaring/venting volumes. Are these spikes associated with production startups, tropical storm restarts, major compressor issues, administrative/accounting corrections, or something else?
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
OWG flared
7727
7385
5919
6987
6342
OWG vented
2578
1984
1405
1638
1230
OWG produced
670,699
582,254
582,824
581,235
598,005
% OWG flared
1.15
1.27
1.02
1.20
1.06
% OWG vented
0.38
0.34
0.24
0.28
0.21
GWG flared
405
432
311
213
212
GWG vented
958
578
548
722
468
GWG produced
364,082
224,808
209,558
203,342
152,400
%GWG flared
0.11
0.19
0.15
0.10
0.14
%GWG vented
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.36
0.31
total flared and vented
11668
10233
8183
9559
8252
total gas production
1,034,782
807,062
792,382
784,577
750,405
% flared or vented
1.13
1.27
1.03
1.22
1.10
total vented
3536
2416
1953
2360
1698
% vented
0.34
0.30
0.25
0.30
0.22
total flared
8132
7817
6230
7200
6554
% flared
0.79
0.97
0.79
0.92
0.87
OWG=oil well gas; GWG=gas well gas; all volumes are in MMCF
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 