Average GoM oil production from Nov. to Jan. was more than 130,000 BOPD below the July to Oct. average. Production in Jan. 2024 was 245,000 BOPD lower than Sept. 2023 production. (See the table and chart below.)
The production shut-ins associated with the mysterious November sheen in the Main Pass area were no doubt a contributing factor to the decline, but the magnitude and duration of those shut-ins has not been disclosed. The source of the sheen has apparently still not been determined, nor has any information been provided on the status of the Federal investigation. The absence of transparency is disappointing.
Pictured: pig for cleaning gas pipelines. Will Nord Stream’s suit against the insurers unplug investigation findings?
Nord Stream AG has sued insurers Lloyds and Arch in the English High Court for failing to pay for pipeline damage incurred during the Sept. 2022 Baltic Sea explosions. The estimated pipeline repair costs range from €1.2 to €1.35 billion, and Nord Stream is seeking €400 million from the insurers.
Could this litigation help us learn more about the findings of the official Nord Stream investigations? After 17 months of investigation, Denmark recently concluded that “there are not sufficient grounds to pursue a criminal case in Denmark.” Only nineteen days before Sweden had announced that “Swedish jurisdiction does not apply and that the investigation therefore should be closed.” These weak announcements at the end of lengthy investigations seem too convenient, and may lend credence to Hersh’s Nord Stream account or a recent variation that implicates the UK. Germany is presumably still investigating, and it remains to be seen whether they will release findings.
Could the parties in the Nord Stream case pursue documents or testimony from the Swedish, Danish, or German investigation teams? Both sides in this case, Nord Stream AG and the insurers, would benefit from details that could help identify the responsible parties.
Reports in Nov. indicated that ~60,000 bopd were shut-in as a result of the presumed Main Pass Oil Gathering system pipeline leak. The Coast Guard subsequently reported that other pipelines in the area were shut-in as the search for a leak continued. The bulk of the Nov./Dec. production decline of ~80,000 bopd (from Oct. levels) was probably attributable to those pipeline system shut-ins.
Either the investigators were incompetent (unlikely) or the political pressure was too great (likely).
“The investigation has led the authorities to conclude that there was deliberate sabotage of the gas pipelines. However, the assessment is that there are not sufficient grounds to pursue a criminal case in Denmark,” a Copenhagen police statement said.
Were sheen samples fingerprinted and are those results definitive?
Given that the source has not been identified, what was the basis for the large (and rather sensational) spill volume estimate? The sheen was not indicative of a spill of that magnitude.
How much production has been shut-in since the slick was first identified? November production data indicate a GoM-wide oil production decline of ~80,000 bopd decline from September.
Given the public claims that were made about the size and potential implications of this spill, the authorities need to be more forthcoming regarding their findings to date.
Updated BSEE incident data tables. The last data are for 2021. The public should have timely access to information about safety and pollution events on Federal lands and the performance records of companies conducting these operations. During the MMS era, these tables were updated quarterly and the Directors (all administrations) did not tolerate delay.
The final NTSB report on the 12/29/2022 GoM helicopter crashthat killed 4. The preliminary report was timely, but the final report has yet to be published. Is the NTSB considering the muddled regulatory regime for helidecks. (Regulatory fragmentation is a safety risk factor).
Corrected IRF performance data. This is arguably the IRF’s most important work stream and the data should be accurate. Some commentary about safety performance would also be helpful. What do the incident trends tell us? How does safety performance compare internationally?
Data on safety incidents associated with the OCS wind program during the site assessment, construction, and operational phases.
Information on the mysterious sinking of the Aban Pearl semi-submersiblein May 2010. We know an investigation was conducted. 14 years have now elapsed and the report has still not been shared.
Putin suggests that people consider who had an interest in sabotaging the pipelines and who had the capability. He also asks why Germany isn’t allowing gas to flow through the one Nord Stream line that wasn’t damaged.
The conclusion of the investigation is that Swedish jurisdiction does not apply and that the investigation therefore should be closed,” the Swedish Prosecution Authority said in a statement.
Little has changed since our last update. Will we finally get a substantive update from an official investigator?
STOCKHOLM, Feb 5 (Reuters) – The prosecutor leading Sweden’s probe into the Nord Stream gas pipeline blasts in the Baltic Sea in 2022 plans to announce a decision this week on whether to drop the case, press charges or request that someone is detained, his office said on Monday.
The statement confirmed an earlier report by Swedish daily Expressen. It was not immediately clear which day an announcement would be made, a spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office said.
On Nov. 17, the Coast Guard reported a “crude oil release” in the Gulf of Mexico near the Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) company’s pipeline system southeast of New Orleans. After 3 weeks of investigation, no pipeline leak has been identified.
The cause and source of the incident remain under investigation. The entire length of the main pipeline has been assessed to date, along with 22.16 miles of surrounding pipelines with no damage or indications of a leak identified. Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) and divers continue to reassess the main pipeline and surrounding pipelines as a sustained effort to locate the source of the suspected release.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 