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Archive for the ‘Offshore Energy – General’ Category

The EIA forecast looks about right. Production from new projects should offset existing field declines and maintain relatively stable volumes over the next 2-3 years. In the intermediate and longer terms we have problems given the dearth of exploratory drilling and new discoveries, and the complete absence of leasing.

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  • Secretary of the Interior Haaland committed to releasing the Proposed Program by June 30, 2022. Will that deadline be met? BOE’s guess is that the deadline will be met. However, the White House Climate Policy Office, which seems to control energy policy, may have other ideas.
  • Number of regions in which lease sales will be proposed: BOE thinks 2, the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. There is no chance of >2. A GoM only proposed program is possible, but we doubt that Alaska will be eliminated at this early stage.
  • Number of lease sales proposed: BOE guesses a total of 7 sales, 5 in the GoM and 2 in Alaska. The “under” is probably a better bet than the “over,” unless they eschew area-wide GoM sales and propose an increased number of more targeted sales.

For comparison, the previous six 5-Year Programs have included 10-12 GoM sales (11.3 average), 1-8 Alaska sales (4.3 ave.), 0-1 Atlantic sales (0.3 ave.), and no Pacific sales.

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As of June, 2022
Bloomberg projection

Meanwhile, no new leases have been issued in Federal waters immediately offshore from the SPR sites (see map below) for 580 days, the longest leasing gap since 1958.

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Good response from Exxon to the White House letter.

In the short term, the U.S. government could enact measures often used in emergencies following hurricanes or other supply disruptions — such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies. Longer term, government can promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development, such as regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines.

Exxon

Perhaps Exxon will return to the Gulf of Mexico if the Administration commits to regular and predictable oil and gas lease sales. The company hasn’t drilled a well in the Gulf since 2019.

The longer API letter comments on the fundamentals of refining markets and operations while also addressing the Administration’s “end fossil fuel rhetoric” and negative regulatory signals. Who would want to make major refinery investments under these circumstances?

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IG Report

We determined that over approximately 5 years, the energy company’s venting and flaring activities exceeded regulatory limits without the required approvals, resulting in a loss of Federal mineral royalties and resources. More specifically, we identified approximately 229,066 MCF of vented and flared natural gas as suspicious or exceeding the allowable amount across four platforms in the Gulf of Mexico between January 2014 and April 2020. We presented our findings to ONRR, which assisted us in analyzing the energy company’s venting and flaring activities and determining the amount of lost Federal mineral royalties. Based on this analysis, ONRR submitted and secured a proof of claim in the amount of $712,857.82 for unpaid mineral royalties during the energy company’s bankruptcy proceeding.

OIG report 6/13/2022

Comments:

  1. The report doesn’t name the company, but one can make an educated guess based on some of the information provided (e.g. number of platforms the company operated, bankruptcy proceedings, etc.)
  2. The regulator usually finds out about false or misleading recordkeeping. Reports from employees, anonymous or otherwise, are a common source of such charges, as was the case here. (In my District in California, a toolpusher informed us that BOP pressure test records were being falsified. This led to multiple felony convictions.)
  3. The IG’s recommendations to BSEE and ONRR are reasonable and appropriate:
    1. Examine venting and flaring reports for patterns that may reflect violations or amounts that exceed permissible limits.
    2. Develop a process to ensure that royalties are being paid for improperly flared or vented gas.
  4. As BOE has previously reported, available public flaring data do not match. These data inconsistencies should be addressed.
  5. BSEE/ONRR should make more detailed flaring/venting data publicly available so differences between facilities and sectors (e.g. deepwater vs. shelf) can be assessed. Efforts should also be made to post these data in a more timely manner. Data for 2021 are still not available.

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The primary goal of energy policy should be ample, reliable supplies that are sufficient to ensure reasonable consumer prices. The “Backup Plan” (below) is only acceptable in cartoons.

From an offshore energy policy standpoint, remember this:

Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 257 was vacated on 1/27/2022 because DC Federal Court Judge Contreras ruled that BOEM failed to consider the “positive” effect that higher prices would have on reducing foreign consumption and the associated GHG emissions. Apparently the Court failed to consider that higher oil and gas prices would:

The Administration chose not to appeal that decision, although API and the State of Louisiana have. It has now been 575 days since the last Federal offshore oil and gas lease sale.

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Per Politico:

Several Democrats both in and out of the administration laid out their discontent with the office, led by National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy, over its involvement in other agencies’ work, saying it slowed down several high-profile agenda items.

The Democrats said the office has gotten in the way of agency rulemakings. A Democratic Hill staffer told Zack the office edited and chose the day after Thanksgiving to release last year’s long-awaited Interior Department report on the federal oil and gas leasing program.

More on the leasing report cited in the above quote.

I guess we can assume that the Climate Office is currently reviewing the Proposed 5 Year Leasing Program that the Department of the Interior has promised to release by June 30. Is DOI subordinate to the Climate Office?

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SPR stocks are down 29% from the end of 2010 and 19% from the end of 2020. Continued declines of this magnitude would be a major concern. Should a major crisis arise, offshore production takes years to ramp up, especially given that the lease inventory is at historic low levels and exploration has thus been stymied. Shale producers can respond more quickly to market needs, but transportation bottlenecks, and staffing and equipment availability can limit near-term production growth.

As was noted here in April, the inconsistency of drawing heavily on the SPR while constraining leasing in the adjacent offshore waters is striking. Apparently, there is nothing to worry about because neither the Department of the Interior nor the Department of Energy home pages even mention the words oil or gas. This is pretty remarkable given their broad responsibilities for these vital resources, and the crippling effects of shortages and high prices.

SPR locations

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