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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

Some preliminary thoughts about BOEM’s proposed revision to the decommissioning financial assurance regulations for US offshore oil and gas operations:

  1. BOEM has rather surprisingly proposed to eliminate consideration of a company’s compliance record in determining the need for supplemental financial assurance. An opposing view will be posted tomorrow.
  2. If a lease has proved reserves with a value of at least three times that of the estimated decommissioning cost, no supplemental financial assurance would be required. Comparing two imprecise and variable estimates is neither a simple nor reliable method for determining the need for supplemental financial assurance. BOEM should look at the history of the Carpenteria field (Santa Barbara Channel) and the reserve estimates that were provided to discount decommissioning risks. More on this at a later date.
  3. Transferor liability applies only to those obligations existing at the time of transfer; new facilities, or additions to existing facilities, that were not in existence at the time of any lease transfer are not obligations of a predecessor company and are considered obligations of the party that built such new facilities and its co- and successor lessees. This is a good policy, but is difficult to implement. Some of the complexities may need to be addressed. More later.
  4. The “reverse chronological order” provision was withdrawn in April, so there is no defined process for issuing decommissioning orders to predecessor lessees. Is it good policy to first issue such orders to companies who may have owned leases decades ago, in some cases prior to the establishment of transferor liability in the 1997 MMS “bonding rule?”
  5. The proposed rule would clarify that BOEM will not approve the transfer of a lease interest until the transferee complies with all applicable regulations and orders, including the financial assurance requirements. BOEM needs to be firmly enforce this policy. See tomorrow’s post.
  6. The proposed rule would not allow BOEM to rely upon the financial strength of predecessor lessees when determining whether, or how much, supplemental financial assurance should be provided. This is a good provision.
  7. BOEM proposes to use the P70 probabilistic value to set the amount of any required supplemental financial assurance. These estimates do not seem sufficiently conservative to protect other parties and the public in the event of default. This is particularly true after storm damage which can increase plugging costs more than tenfold.
  8. The probabilistic cost estimates were updated in 2020 and are based on data submitted subsequent to 2016 and 2017 NTLs. How often will these estimates be updated?
  9. The final rule should specify that funds may not be withdrawn from decommissioning accounts for operational purposes, and that BOEM approval is required for such withdrawals.

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As we approach the 4th of July, remember this:

In 1979 Gulf of Mexico oil production had declined to 263 million barrels and many believed that further declines were inevitable. 40 years later, a record 693 million barrels were produced.

Onshore, lateral drilling and hydraulic fracturing capabilities are continuing. As a result, Exxon and others are predicting projecting higher recovery factors in the Permian Basin. Per Exxon CEO Darren Woods: “We are beginning to see the signs of some very promising new technologies that will significantly improve recovery.”

Opportunity + Ingenuity ➡ Energy Independence + Prosperity

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Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 348.6 million barrels as of June 23, but 6 million barrels, a relative drop in the bucket, are to be added in the fall.

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Pangea
Quartz

Until the late Triassic period, Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia were cojoined with Mauritania and Senegal as part of the Pangea super-continent. These Pangea neighbors share a common ancient geology.

Paul Post believed the untested West African analogs in the US Atlantic were highly prospective, and could contain >20 billion BOE. Paul was not alone in his thinking about Atlantic resource potential. Sadly, Paul is no longer with us 😥, so I’m sharing a few of his slides as a reminder of his important work. I have also attached his 2016 report and am linking the 2021 update.

Given the current Atlantic moratoriums and the steep legal, social, and political barriers that would have to be cleared, evaluating the US Atlantic is not imminent. However, nearly all Atlantic nations and their Caribbean and North Sea cousins have exploration programs and some have been wildly successful. Oil and gas consumption will be stable or growing for the foreseeable future, and it’s important to better understand the petroleum potential of our Atlantic continental margin.

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Last week, BOEM announced the acceptance of all 69 of Exxon’s Sale 259 carbon sequestration bids. This is despite these facts: (1) Exxon’s intentions were known, (2) there were no provisions for CCS bidding in the Notice of Sale, (3) no environmental review of CCS leasing was conducted, and (4) there are no procedures for evaluating CCS bids.

Absent some type of legislative maneuver, carbon sequestration is not authorized under these leases. If Exxon is just acquiring the leases for evaluation purposes in preparation for a possible CCS sale in the future, their lease acquisitions may be okay. If they are planning on retaining these leases for actual sequestration operations, that is not okay, at least not until a competitive process has been established for awarding or reclassifying such leases.

It’s also noteworthy that there was a second bidder for th blocks (in red above). Presumably that company, Focus Exploration, was interested in acquiring the tract for oil and gas exploration purposes. However, the Focus bid was a bit lower, so Exxon got the tract.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves announced that contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of 3 million barrels of U.S. produced crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  These contracts follow the Request for Proposal that was announced on May 15, 2023. Furthering the Biden-Harris Administration’s three-part replenishment plan, DOE also announced a new Notice of Solicitation to purchase approximately 3.1 million additional barrels of crude oil to the Big Hill SPR site this September.

DOE (6/9/2023)

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now down to 351.7 million bbls, the lowest since 8/26/1983. The 6 million bbls in contracted and proposed purchases will replace only 30% of the oil withdrawn just in 2023 YTD, 2.0% of the amount withdrawn since 1/1/2021, and 1.6% of the volume needed to refill the SPR to capacity.

Given that 2024 is an election year, the prospects for substantial purchases next year would seem to be poor.

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Per an announcement by his family, former Secretary of the Interior James Watt passed away on May 27. The Washington Post provides a good overview of his tenure at DOI during the Reagan administration.

Watt was an outspoken and controversial figure. His aggressive mineral leasing policies proved not to be in the best long-term interest of the OCS program. As their principal target, Watt became an unintended fundraiser for opponents of energy development.

Watt’s indirect Beach Boys ban, which didn’t sit well with Ronald and Nancy Reagan, was perhaps his best remembered faux pas. Per the WP:

He did not explicitly mention the Beach Boys, but they had performed at previous July 4 events, and the group became the focus of outrage over Mr. Watt’s pronouncement. President Reagan called the interior secretary to the Oval Office and presented him with a plaster foot bearing a bullet hole to humorously — but unambiguously — convey the message that he had shot himself in the foot.

Watt’s hideous and insensitive comment about the composition of the Linowes Commission seemed to be the final straw, and he resigned shortly after he made those comments. The “cripple” in that remark happened to be someone I knew, a highly regarded mineral economist named Richard Gordon who was one of my favorite graduate school professors.

Lots of James Watt jokes circulated during his tenure. One that I found amusing went something like this: James loved baseball and dreamed of someday standing in center field at Yankee Stadium ….. drilling for oil 😀.

RIP Secretary Watt.

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Per the latest update (5/12/2023), the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 359.6 million barrels, more than 2 million bbls below the previous week. The “deficit” (i.e. the volume needed to completely refill the reserve) is now 367 million bbls, and you can’t print oil. The reserve volume is the lowest since 9/23/1983, when the SPR was still being filled.

Remember:

  • The maximum refill rate is 685,000 bopd. 
  • A complete refill at the maximum rate would require 536 days.
  • This excludes acquisition, operational, and maintenance delays, which are likely to be significant. 
  • Just adding 100 million barrels would require at least 146 days
  • Purchases of that magnitude significantly affect oil markets. Total US oil production is currently about 12 million bopd.
  • Filling the reserve to its 727 million barrel capacity was a 28 year process.

But fear not, DOE is soliciting the replacement of 0.1 to 1.0% of the oil that has been withdrawn from the SPR since January 2021. This amounts to only 2.5 to 25% of the oil sold from the reserve in 2023 alone (when we were supposedly refilling the reserve) and 0.04 to 0.4% of capacity!

DOE issued a solicitation May 15 for the oil, with delivery to occur Aug. 1-31, at a minimum offer quantity of 300,000 bbl and a maximum offer of 3 million bbl. Requests for earlier deliveries will be accommodated to the extent possible on a best-efforts basis.

OGJ

Meanwhile, oil demand and supply data do not look particularly favorable for any long term SPR purchases.

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Per Bloomberg, DOE says they could begin refilling the reserve this fall “if the price is right.” What if it isn’t?

Keep in mind that the maximum refill rate is 685,000 bopd. A complete refill at the maximum rate would thus require 533 days, not counting acquisition, operational, and maintenance delays. Filling the reserve to its 727 million barrel capacity was a 28 year process.

Lastly, when will DOE conduct the strategic SPR review called for by the General Accountability Office (GAO) in 2018, well before DOE began rashly withdrawing oil to moderate prices? DOE concurred with GAO’s priority recommendation for periodic strategic reviews of the SPR that would be submitted to Congress. DOE told GAO that they “would complete a SPR Long-Term Strategic Review by the end of fiscal year 2021–5 years from the last review in 2016.” That review has still not been completed.

Update: Yesterday, members of Congress asked GAO to evaluate DOE’s management of the SPR and conduct an audit of the SPR modernization program.

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Dr. Malcolm Sharples, a leading marine engineer and offshore safety advocate, brought this Supreme Court’s decision and the resulting regulatory confusion to my attention.

It turns out that the SOCTUS decision about this houseboat…..

has created regulatory uncertainty for floating production facilities like this:

In a 7-2 decision, the court ruled that a gray, two-story home that its owner said was permanently moored to a Riviera Beach, Florida, marina was not a vessel, depriving the city of power under U.S. maritime law to seize and destroy it.

Reuters

The floating production facilities are still subject to Coast Guard regulation and inspection pursuant to separate authority under the OCS Lands Act. The extent to which Coast Guard approval and inspection practices will change is not entirely clear. The Coast Guard will issue new certificates of inspection for these floating facilities, and new policy guidance is being developed.

Attached are answers that the Coast Guard provided to questions from the Offshore Operators Committee.

This may be a good warmup for an upcoming post on regulatory fragmentation.

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