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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

COP28:

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) closed today with an agreement that signals the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance.

UN Climate Change News, 12/13/2023

Real world:

“That intrinsic demand that is not visible is so significant that we don’t see demand peaking – I don’t think we’ll see [oil] demand peaking in our lifetimes,” he said. “Particularly as demand growth in [emerging markets] continues to surprise the upside.” 

Christyan Malek, JPMorgan’s top energy strategist

The 19th century is known as the “century of coal,” but, as the technology scholar Vaclav Smil has noted, not until the beginning of the 20th century did coal actually overtake wood as the world’s No. 1 energy source. Moreover, past energy transitions have also been “energy additions”—one source atop another. Oil, discovered in 1859, did not surpass coal as the world’s primary energy source until the 1960s, yet today the world uses almost three times as much coal as it did in the ’60s.

Dan Yergin

You be the judge.

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This should be an interesting sale. Below are some of the questions that may be answered:

  • Will the Rice’s whale issues affect bidding for deepwater leases? The 5th Circuit’s ruling removes the Rice’s whale lease stipulation. However, BOEM’s Notice to Lessees and Operators (NTL) includes the same provisions and still stands pending further consultations with NOAA. Although the NTL is a “guidance document” (wink-wink), there are ways of making it stick through the plan approval process. Even without binding requirements, companies might choose to fully comply with the NTL to minimize legal risks.
  • Will the uncertainty about future sales spur or constrain bidding? Absent legislative action, no sale will be held in 2025.
  • Will the 14 blocks with rejected high bids at Sale 259 receive bids at Sale 261? If so, will the bids be higher or lower? Is it prudent to reject high bids without knowing when the next sale might be held?
  • Will bp, Chevron, Shell, Equinor, Oxy, and Woodside continue to be bullish on the GoM?
  • Will Red Willow Offshore, owned by the Southern Ute tribe, again be an active bidder?
  • Will Exxon again seek to acquire carbon sequestration leases at an oil and gas lease sale? After a long absence, it would be good to see the US super-major acquire leases for oil and gas purposes. Ditto for ConocoPhillips.
  • How many companies will participate in the sale? 30-35 would be a nice outcome.
  • What will be the sum of the high bids? >$300 million would be a solid result.

BOEM will live stream the opening of bids at 9 am CDT on Dec. 20, 2023

BOEM

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BOEM diminishes the credibility of their important (and generally excellent) scientific, lease administration, and regulatory work with over-the-top wind energy promotion. The tweet below is a recent example.

This is not a good look for the bureau that is expected to objectively evaluate offshore wind projects. Leave the hype to the wind industry and its NGO supporters.

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Huh? Since 9/1/2023, the SPR has increased from 350.34 million bbls to 351.9 million bbs, a total of only 1.56 million bbls. From the historic low of 346.76 bbls on 7/7/2023, the SPR has increased by just 5.14 million bbls, and remains at only 48% full. The total refill since the 2023 low amounts to only 0.7% of capacity.

DOE knew that refilling the SPR would be a very slow process given the significant acquisition, operational, and maintenance challenges. Nonetheless, political concerns about oil prices were prioritized and the reserve was recklessly depleted.

Prediction: The SPR will still be <400 million bbls at the end of 2024.

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The quote and graphic are from Jens Christiansen, a Danish physicist and nuclear power advocate.

Energy reality on display (vs. COP theater):

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Per EIA, September Gulf of Mexico production averaged 2 million bopd on the button! New production from Vito and Argos were no doubt contributors, as production reached the 2 million bopd mark for only the third month in the history of the OCS program. The other 2 months were in 2019.

Imagine what US offshore production might be if the OCS oil and gas program was actually managed to succeed!

Also, as the official hurricane season comes to a close today, we are fortunate in that there have been no production shut-ins from tropical storms in 2023.

Vito

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This interesting Scientific American article ends with a short paragraph that our regulatory scholars may want to ponder:

Mining’s larger future will rest largely on how ISA (the International Seabed Authority) finalizes its rule book amid the rush to scour the seafloor. ISA has a rare chance to regulate an industry before the industry has begun.

Thoughts:

  • Deep sea mining is not an entirely new industry. The technology and procedures evolved from other industries, most notably deepwater drilling, and from decades of ocean exploration. Keep in mind that the Hidden Gem mining vessel is a converted deepwater drillship.
  • The offshore oil and gas industry’s risk assessment and safety management practices can be adapted to deep-sea mining.  
  • Effective regulations are not static. The deep-sea mining regulations should not be considered “final” when they are blessed by ISA and the governing body.
  • Before permits are issued, ISA can establish general safety and environmental management requirements, and should specify planning, monitoring, reporting, and liability requirements. (ISA appears to have made an extensive effort on these elements of the regulatory program.)
  • The more prescriptive elements of regulations are dependent on operational experience, observations, and performance data. These must evolve over time.
  • Timely revisions to equipment and procedural requirements through updates to operator management systems and industry standards are critical. In most cases, formally revising regulations takes much too long and is an ineffective means of mitigating emerging risks.
  • Long, detailed regulations are indicative of a weak regulatory regime, not a strong one.  Optimal regulations specify goals, not methods, and are implemented by focused regulators who inquire, challenge, analyze, and where necessary penalize.
  • The respective roles of the operating companies and the regulating authority must be clearly articulated.
  • With continuous improvement as the primary objective, the regulator should develop a strategy for measuring safety and environmental performance.

 

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Whale FPU; Source: Boskalis

Lars Herbst noted another endangered whale sighting by the US Coast Guard. Unlike their erroneous Rice’s whale report in September (still waiting for their mea culpa), the Coast Guard has gotten this one right. The 25,000 ton Whale is pictured above.

Whale’s species is indeed endangered with the most serious threats coming from a faraway place on the Potomac River. The “newborn” Whale is one of only 15 of its species in the Gulf of Mexico. The entire platformus deepis genus numbers only 59, but their importance to society is enormous (read more).

Perhaps the wise people who control our offshore lands will do more to encourage and support these floating behemoths. Unfortunately, their 5 year management plan is not encouraging in that regard.

More about Whale

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As a result of the order issued by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit on Nov. 14, 2023, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has scheduled Lease Sale 261 for Dec. 20, 2023.

The Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale was originally scheduled for Sept. 27, 2023, and later scheduled for Nov. 8, 2023, in response to judicial orders.

Pursuant to direction from the Court, BOEM will include lease blocks that were previously excluded due to concerns regarding potential impacts to the Rice’s whale population in the Gulf of Mexico. BOEM will also remove portions of a related stipulation meant to address those potential impacts from the lease terms for any leases that may result from Lease Sale 261.

A Final Notice of Sale will be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 20, 2023, and will be available for public inspection on Nov. 17, 2023. 

BOEM will live stream the opening of bids at 9 am CDT on Dec. 20, 2023. All terms and conditions of the lease sale are listed in the FNOS. For more information, go to: www.boem.gov/sale-261.  

BOEM

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The sale could be held sooner. However, since BOEM asked for 37 days, I’m assuming that the sale will be on December 21.

In the 70 year history of the oil and gas leasing program, this will be the sale date that is closest to Christmas. Yet another major milestone for the offshore program! 😀

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