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Archive for November, 2025

Plymouth MA wind turbine that lost a blade. (Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)

Friday’s turbine blade failure in Plymouth MA is perhaps getting added attention given its proximity to the 7/13/2024 Vineyard Wind blade failure offshore Nantucket. The Plymouth blade landed in a nearby cranberry bog (video and picture below).

Per the MV Times, the turbines for the Plymouth project were manufactured by Gamesa, which is now part of Siemens Gamesa. Both the South Fork Wind and Revolution Wind projects off the coast of the Martha’s Vineyard are being developed by Ørsted using turbines from Siemens Gamesa. Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, the largest offshore wind project in the United States, is also being developed with Siemens Gamesa turbines. This is not to imply a higher degree of risk for those turbines. Vineyard Wind, where the only US offshore failure has occurred to date, is using GE Vernova turbines.

Unfortunately, turbine blade failures are much too common. Last October, Lars Herbst reported, based on a Wind Power article, that “with an estimated 700,000 blades in operation globally, there are, on average, 3,800 incidents of blade failure each year.” Lars noted that the annual blade failure rate of about 0.5% translates to 1.5% of all operating wind turbines experiencing a blade failure every year, a remarkably high failure frequency.

Scotland Against Spin data indicate that blade failure is the second most common accident type in the wind industry, and the most common cause of accidents at operational wind turbine sites. SAS reports further that pieces of blade are documented as travelling up to one mile, and have gone through the roofs and walls of nearby buildings.

Lastly, we are still awaiting BSEE’s report on the Vineyard Wind failures so we can better understand what happened and why.

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Per the Washington Post, the Administration’s 5 Year Oil & Gas leasing plan will include (in addition to the Central and Western Gulf):

  • Six offshore lease sales between 2027 and 2030 in areas along the California coast
  • Expansion of leasing into the Eastern Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico per the Post)
  • 20 sales offshore Alaska through 2031 (presumably this includes the mandated Cook Inlet sales)

Previous post about 5 Year Plan speculation

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One Big Beautiful Gulf of America

The first ever Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale 😉 will be held on Dec. 10, 2025. Instead of numbering the sale sequentially (i.e. Sale 262), the sale has been designated OCS Oil and Gas One Big Beautiful Bill Act Lease Sale 1 (BBG1). 🙄 This change is a bit too cute for some of us old-timers, but we’ll judge the sale by its results, not its name.

The Notice of Sale is attached. The terms are very attractive, with the lowest allowable royalty rate (1/8th) on all shelf and deepwater leases. Note the comparison of royalty rates in the table below. The 6.25% difference for deepwater leases is substantial when you consider their high production potential.

Gulf Sale No.Date% royalty: <200m water depth% royalty: >200m water depth
25611/18/202012.518.75
25711/17/202112.518.75
25812/30/202218.7518.75
2593/29/202318.7518.75
26112/20/202318.7518.75
BBG112/10/202512.512.5

The rental rates for the BBG1 Sale are also very attractive compared to Sale 261:

Water DepthSale 261 rental rates ($/ac)BBG1 Sale rental rates ($/ac)
0 to <200myears 1-5: $10
year 6: $20
year 7: $30
year 8+: $40
years 1-5: $7
year 6: $14
year 7: $21
year 8+: $28
200 to <400myears 1-5: $16
year 6: $32
year 7: $48
year 8+: $64
years 1-5: $11
year 6: $22
year 7: $33
year 8+: $44
400+ myears 1-5: $16
year 6: $22
year 7: $22
year 8+: $22
years 1-5: $11
year 6: $16
year 7: $16
year 8+: $16

Will the bidding reflect the very favorable lease terms?

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 The floating solar farm Nymphaea Aurora in port (Amsterdam) – photo credit: Oceans of Energy

“Highlights” from a very good Sealetters account on the Nymphaea Aurora (Netherlands): from massive hype to media silence

26 June 2025 – Festive inauguration: A festive ceremony is held in the Port of Amsterdam by Oceans of Energy to celebrate the successful assembly of the world’s first commercial offshore solar farmNymphaea Aurora”. The solar farm is 18.5 kilometers off the Dutch coast near Egmond aan Zee, and consists of 1,400 photovoltaic panels mounted on 196 flotation segments. It is larger than a football field with the expectation to scale up.

9 August 2025 – First fire: Soon after installation at sea Nymphaea Aurora is on fire.

5 September 2025 – Second fire: A second fire breaks out in Nymphaea Aurora. The Dutch Coast Guard extinguishes the fire. Both fires were caused by overheating due to strong solar radiation and faulty panel connectors. The developer calls it a kind of technical childhood disease that is typical for new technology. (Seriously?☹)

fire observed from shore; the solar farm is co-located with an existing wind farm

19 September 2025 – Debris from solar farm starts washing up on the beaches

burnt panel that washed up on beach

20 September 2025: Debris is found all over the beaches of Egmond, Bergen and Schoorl, varying from 20 to 30 cm sized pieces to tiny polystyrene foam fragments. Parts of Nymphaea Aurora wash up on Texel, an island further north on the Dutch coast (photo below).

4 October 2025: Storm batters the Netherlands with wind speeds between 75 and 90 kilometers per hour hitting Noord-Holland. No news about Nymphaea Aurora.

7 November 2025: No news from the developer, Oceans of Energy, since since 27th June 2025 and no updates on LinekdIn since 21 September 2025. It has been very quiet from ‘The company that brought Offshore Solar in high waves from a (perceived) impossibility to a reality.’ It is probably no longer at sea.

You can read the full account here.

Note that the development of Nymphaea Aurora received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under the project BAMBOO, Grant Agreement number 101136142. Funding is reported to be €7 million. The project seeks to reduce emissions significantly and have a net-positive impact on the marine ecosystem. 

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International Bird Rescue photo: seabirds coated in oil off the Santa Barbara coast

Noozhawk: “A natural oil seep off the Santa Barbara coast has coated more than 100 seabirds in oil, leaving them in a life-threatening state, according to the nonprofit International Bird Rescue.”

For more about natural seeps, see “Slick Talk About Seeps.” The attached Oil Spill Fact Sheet (2002) by Cheryl Anderson, the world’s foremost authority on oil spill occurrence rates, and a 2012 update, may also be of interest.

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To date, BSEE has used carryover funds and offsetting collections from inspection, rental, and cost recovery fees to continue their priority permitting and inspection programs during the govt shutdown. However, these funds are limited.

At some point, BSEE will have to stop issuing new permits. If the shutdown continues, the next step could be to curtail drilling and production operations. Needless to say, this would not be completely unacceptable.

In the meantime, BSEE employees continue to work without pay. Flying offshore everyday to inspect operations is no picnic and can be hazardous. I lost a colleague in a helicopter crash and others have been injured. It’s shameful that these people are not being paid while members of congress are!

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Attached is John Smith’s comprehensive summary of lawsuits related to Sable Offshore’s attempts to restart Santa Ynez Unit production.

If you are keeping score, there are 10 separate cases including a class action lawsuit filed by investors. New legal battles are sure to follow given Sable’s OS&T strategy. Per John:

The combined legal challenges, injunctions, and restraining orders have significantly delayed Sable’s restart plans and prompted the company to pursue an Offshore Storage and Treatment Vessel (OS&T) strategy, which was utilized to process SYU production in federal waters from 1981 – 1994, and transport oil to markets using tankers.

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Tyler Priest, the leading historian on US offshore oil and gas operations, has published another gem. His book, Offshore Oildom, is a fascinating account of the history of the technologically innovative and economically important, yet highly controversial, OCS Oil and Gas program. His book is highly recommended.

Consider this recommendation by Daniel Yergin:

“Tyler Priest, a preeminent historian of energy and the environment, explores how a single well drilled off a pier near Santa Barbara in 1898 gave rise to a major American industry—offshore oil and gas. In spirited prose, Priest demonstrates how this U.S. industry was created not only by innovation, creative engineering, and complex execution; it was also the result of fierce political battles.” ~Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations

You can learn more here.

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The Construction and Operations Plan (COP) for the SouthCoast Wind project was approved during the last week of the Biden Administration. That approval has been challenged by the Town and County of Nantucket. Ocean Wind, a joint venture of EDP Renewables (Portugal) and ENGIE (France), is the leaseholder.

Yesterday, the court issued an order concurring with the Federal government’s request for a voluntary remand of the COP approval. The court decision is attached. The Order concludes as follows:

It is ORDERED that the case be REMANDED to BOEM for reconsideration of its decision and that proceedings in this court are STAYED until further order of the court. It is further ORDERED that, on or before January 3, 2026, and every 60 days thereafter, the parties shall file a joint status report indicating the status of BOEM’s remand proceedings. It is further ORDERED that on or before 30 days following the issuance of a decision by BOEM, the parties shall file a joint status report informing the court if further proceedings are necessary and, if so, providing a proposed schedule for those proceedings.

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  • The UK Met Office told Recharge that the historic trend of wind speeds in Britain was downwards. “The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2024 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally. There have been fewer occurrences of maximum gust speeds exceeding 40/50/60 knots in the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.”
  • Citigroup informs that load factors for both onshore and offshore wind are falling behind capacity growth in Britain’s turbine fleet.
  • Per the Citigroup analysts, the increasing focus on wind wakes in UK waters has led to a ballooning number of disputes between developers.
  • Entire wind farms can influence each other through large-scale wake effects. These farm wakes have been observed to extend more than 100 km downstream from a wind farm and can cut the yield of turbines in the wake by tens of percents.
  • In addition to wake losses, local turbulence in the wake regions creates significant unsteady fatigue loads on the downstream turbines, which shorten their working life.
  • Wind wakes grow with turbine size. Bigger wind turbines deliver financial economies of scale, but don’t greatly increase the total power per unit area because they must be spaced farther apart
  • recent study shows that hydrodynamic conditions in the ocean altered by wind wakes can strongly influence marine primary production (phytoplankton).
  • The US National Academy of Sciences advised BOEM about the hydrodynamic effects of wind turbines and the potential implications for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (see figure below).

Wind resource management is reminiscent of the early years of oil production when the “law of capture” reigned supreme and wasteful production practices were a self-defense mechanism.

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