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Presumably, most of the restored GoM production is from platforms like Exxon Hoover that were not subjected to hurricane conditions. Per BSEE, the total oil production shut-in as of 9/1 is 1,455,279.

The latest EIA production report for June 2021 has just been released and GoM oil production averaged 1.825 million BOPD.

from EIA data

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In light of the ongoing litigation regarding the Department of the Interior’s “leasing pause,” DOI’s Record of Decision for Sale 257 is most encouraging. The viewpoints expressed in the two quotes below are fundamental to the future of the OCS Oil and Gas Program. Hopefully, all parties can put aside their differences and build upon these consensus views.

While offshore exploration and development cannot be made risk free, OCS oil- and gas-related activities can be conducted safely and responsibly with strong regulatory oversight and appropriate measures to protect human safety and the environment.

ROD, p. 5

The decision to hold Lease Sale 257 recognizes the role that GOM oil and gas resources play in addressing the Nation’s demand for domestic energy sources and fosters economic benefits, including employment, labor income, and tax revenues, which are highest in Gulf Coast States and also distributed widely across the United States. Revenues from offshore oil and gas lease sales support national conservation programs and coastal resiliency for applicable coastal states and political subdivisions under the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006.

ROD, p. 7

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Consistent with expectations, more than 1.7 million BOPD remains shut-in. Exxon announced that crews are resuming operations at their deepwater Hoover platform. Hoover is west of the Ida storm track and incurred no damage.

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As expected, BSEE’s 8/30 update indicates that the shut-in production volumes remain about the same. The process of inspecting facilities, returning workers (some of whom may be dealing with damage and other challenges at home), and restoring production will take some time.

Other than the sketchy reports about the Globetrotter II, there is no information on Ida-related offshore incidents at this time. .

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Port Fourchon, the service hub for the deepwater Gulf, took a direct hit from Ida. This is why you evacuate (including offshore platforms).

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Noble doesn’t address the rumored disconnect and relocation issues, but in a carefully worded statement confirms that the Globetrotter II encountered hurricane conditions.

SUGAR LAND, Texas, Aug. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE, “Noble” or the “Company”) today announced that all personnel onboard the Pacific Sharav, Noble Globetrotter I, and Noble Globetrotter II ultra-deepwater drillships in the US Gulf of Mexico are safe and accounted for following Hurricane Ida.  Each rig successfully secured its respective well in progress and took evasive actions to avoid the storm’s path.  Of the three, the Noble Globetrotter II is the only vessel that encountered hurricane-force conditions.  The vessel maintained stability throughout the weather event and is operating on its own power with functional marine and safety systems.  A full assessment of its condition will be completed as soon as the weather clears.

GLOBETROTTER II photo
Globetrotter II

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BSEE’s 8/29 update indicates that over 1.74 million BOPD have been shut-in by Ida. Based on the most recent EIA production data, this is essentially all Gulf of Mexico oil production.

There has also been some early noise on social media about offshore facility damage. None of these reports have been confirmed by the Coast Guard, BSEE, or the companies involved. The most credible reports relate to the Noble Globetrotter II deepwater drillship. Per the reports, allegedly from workers on the rig, the Globetrotter II was hit by Ida before the riser was disconnected and recovered. The rig is reported to have sustained significant damage and there may have been injuries. This type of incident has occurred in the past when dynamically positioned drillships have not successfully pulled their riser and relocated prior to the storm’s arrival. One report indicated 60′ waves and 140 mph winds at the rigs’s location.

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Per BSEE’s 8/28 update, 90.84% of GoM oil production is reported to be shut-in. Given that there is some uncertainty in both the numerator (production shut-in) and the denominator (base production), there is a margin of error (~5%?) in that figure. The large discrepancy in the % of manned facilities evacuated (only 50) and % of oil production shut-in (90+) illustrates the dominance of deepwater facilities, mostly shut-in, in GoM oil production.

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image
Map from Weather.com

In light of the projected storm track for Ida, forecasting uncertainty, and the need to err on the side of caution in making evacuation and shut-in decisions, particularly for deepwater facilities, look for at least 75% of Gulf of Mexico oil production (approximately 1.3 million BOPD) to be shut-in temporarily.

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After an amazing 38 year career with MMS and BSEE, Lars Herbst has announced that he will retire at the end of 2021. Lars had important technical and managerial roles in the development of the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the response to major hurricanes including Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, controlling the Macondo blowout and addressing the related regulatory issues, and the offshore industry’s response to the COVID-19. Lars was an active participant in the International Regulator’s Forum and is recognized worldwide for his operational and regulatory expertise. Best wishes to Lars as he transitions to the next phase of his life.

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