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Posts Tagged ‘oil production’

  • My home State (Commonwealth) of Pennsylvania is producing nearly 10 times as much natural gas as the US OCS (Federal offshore). Who would have dreamed this was possible 20 years ago? Among the states, PA is second to Texas in gas production.
  • Oil production in Texas is now nearly 3 times as high as on the OCS. In 2010, US offshore production was substantially higher (567 million barrels vs. 427 million barrels).
  • Thanks largely to Texas, North Dakota, and New Mexico, US oil production is rebounding.
  • Thanks to TX, PA, LA, AK, WV, OK, NM, and OH, US gas production has also strengthened.

EIA production data through 11/20/2021:

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Our last GoM update predicted November oil production of 1.8 million BOPD. The EIA figure released yesterday came in slightly less than that at 1.795 million BOPD.

Will 2022 startups push oil production back up to the 2.044 record achieved in August 2019? Possibly, but the longer term outlook is not compelling given reduced drilling activity and the dearth of recent discoveries. The long leasing pause will further compromise exploration by limiting opportunities to test new geologic interpretations and assess promising prospects.

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Data from EIA

More than half of GoM oil production was shut-in for 13 days in September and several hundred thousand BOPD were shut-in for the rest of the month. The result was a 42% reduction in production from pre-Ida (July) levels.

All production has now been restored so the December EIA figures should give us a good read on stablized post-Ida production.

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Oil prices went negative a year ago: Here's what traders have learned since  - MarketWatch
MarketWatch
Monthly Oil Production
Forbes

U.S. oil production plummeted and is unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The Gulf of Mexico will not be picking up the slack. GoM production peaked in August 2019 at 2.044 million BOPD. Absent increased exploration, that peak will never be exceeded.

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Data from EIA

1.60 to 1.74 million BOPD were shut-in from 8/28 to 8/31, reducing the average daily production for August to 1.535 million barrels per day, a net reduction of 312,000 BOPD from July. The September production figure will be significantly lower given that more than half of the GoM production was shut-in for 13 days in September and several hundred thousand BOPD were shut-in for the rest of the month. September production will be released at the end of November.

Shell is now anticipating that their GoM production will be fully restored by mid-November.

Hurricane_Ida_landfall.jpg
Hurricane Ida – JPT graphic

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EIA just released the July data, and GoM oil production averaged 1.845 million BOPD, which was consistent with expectations. 2021 production through July was relatively stable averaging from 1.762 to 1.845 million BOPD. This will, of course, change dramatically when the August data are released, and even more so for September. Most production was shut-in for Ida beginning on 8/28 and some production has not yet been restored. Per BSEE’s final update (9/23), about 300,000 BOPD remained shut-in.

The EIA data are plotted below:

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BSEE data

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BSEE Data

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BSEE data

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As expected given the magnitude and track of Ida, the necessary inspections, and the onshore damage, most GoM production remains shut-in. (BSEE data)

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