Posted in energy policy, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Energy - General, tagged negative oil price, oil production on November 1, 2021| Leave a Comment »
U.S. oil production plummeted and is unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The Gulf of Mexico will not be picking up the slack. GoM production peaked in August 2019 at 2.044 million BOPD. Absent increased exploration, that peak will never be exceeded.
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged August production, EIA, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production on October 31, 2021| Leave a Comment »
1.60 to 1.74 million BOPD were shut-in from 8/28 to 8/31, reducing the average daily production for August to 1.535 million barrels per day, a net reduction of 312,000 BOPD from July. The September production figure will be significantly lower given that more than half of the GoM production was shut-in for 13 days in September and several hundred thousand BOPD were shut-in for the rest of the month. September production will be released at the end of November.
Shell is now anticipating that their GoM production will be fully restored by mid-November.
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged EIA, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production on October 1, 2021| Leave a Comment »
EIA just released the July data, and GoM oil production averaged 1.845 million BOPD, which was consistent with expectations. 2021 production through July was relatively stable averaging from 1.762 to 1.845 million BOPD. This will, of course, change dramatically when the August data are released, and even more so for September. Most production was shut-in for Ida beginning on 8/28 and some production has not yet been restored. Per BSEE’s final update (9/23), about 300,000 BOPD remained shut-in.
The EIA data are plotted below:
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production on September 20, 2021| Leave a Comment »
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production on September 17, 2021| Leave a Comment »
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production on September 7, 2021| Leave a Comment »
As expected given the magnitude and track of Ida, the necessary inspections, and the onshore damage, most GoM production remains shut-in. (BSEE data)
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida, oil production, shut-in on September 2, 2021| Leave a Comment »
In a bit of a surprise, the volume of shut-in GoM oil production rebounded to more than 1.7 million BOPD (see BSEE’s 9/2 update). Because several deepwater platforms had reportedly resumed production, the sharp increase in shut-in volumes could have something to do with downstream facility damage or bottlenecks. The daily Ida shut-in volumes are plotted below.
Posted in Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Hurricane Ida, oil production on August 28, 2021| Leave a Comment »
Per BSEE’s 8/28 update, 90.84% of GoM oil production is reported to be shut-in. Given that there is some uncertainty in both the numerator (production shut-in) and the denominator (base production), there is a margin of error (~5%?) in that figure. The large discrepancy in the % of manned facilities evacuated (only 50) and % of oil production shut-in (90+) illustrates the dominance of deepwater facilities, mostly shut-in, in GoM oil production.
Posted in offshore, Offshore Energy - General, oil, tagged Hurricane Ida, oil production on August 27, 2021| Leave a Comment »
In light of the projected storm track for Ida, forecasting uncertainty, and the need to err on the side of caution in making evacuation and shut-in decisions, particularly for deepwater facilities, look for at least 75% of Gulf of Mexico oil production (approximately 1.3 million BOPD) to be shut-in temporarily.
