Our last GoM update predicted November oil production of 1.8 million BOPD. The EIA figure released yesterday came in slightly less than that at 1.795 million BOPD.
Will 2022 startups push oil production back up to the 2.044 record achieved in August 2019? Possibly, but the longer term outlook is not compelling given reduced drilling activity and the dearth of recent discoveries. The long leasing pause will further compromise exploration by limiting opportunities to test new geologic interpretations and assess promising prospects.

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