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California offshore wind sale: 5 leases, $757.1 million in high bids

The California wind sale bidding, while lower than the record Atlantic sale in February, was extraordinary given that the 5 leases are relatively distant from shore (20+ miles) and in water depths (537 to 1284 m) that dictate the use of floating turbines. Generous subsidies, credits, and State mandates no doubt contributed to the seemingly inflated bidding, as did an auction system that is designed to maximize bonus payments.

Given the slow progress in US offshore wind development, the setbacks the industry is experiencing, the added challenges associated with commercial deepwater development, the potential cost burden on taxpayers and power customers, and the government’s financial and policy support, a more development-friendly leasing system would seem to be prudent. BOEM took a step in that direction with the with the limited training and supply chain credits provided for in the Sale Notice, but fundamental changes in the auction system may be desirable.

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As a result of a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act, leases may be sold but not awarded. See the paragraph below that was inserted at the end of the sale notice. No wind leases may be issued until Sale 259 oil and gas leases are issued (presumably late next spring).

XV. Compliance With the Inflation Reduction Act (Pub. L. 117-169 (Aug. 16, 2022)(Hereinafter, the “IRA”):

Section 50265(b)(2) of the IRA provides that “[d]uring the 10-year period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act . . . the Secretary may not issue a lease for offshore wind development under section 8(p)(1)(C) of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (43 U.S.C. 1337(p)(1)(C)) unless— (A) an offshore lease sale has been held during the 1-year period ending on the date of the issuance of the lease for offshore wind development; and (B) the sum total of acres offered for lease in offshore lease sales during the 1-year period ending on the date of the issuance of the lease for offshore wind development is not less than 60,000,000 acres.” Section 50264(d) of the IRA provides that “. . . not later than March 31, 2023, the Secretary shall conduct Lease Sale 259[.]” Conducting Lease Sale 259 is needed for BOEM to satisfy the requirements in section 50265(b)(2) of the IRA and issue the leases resulting from this lease sale. Notwithstanding the foregoing, nothing in the IRA prevents BOEM from holding this auction.

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Offshore

Per BOEM’s leasing data base, all 94 of the Sale 257 “carbon sequestration leases” (blue) were issued with an effective date of 10/1/2022. However, Sale 257 was an oil and gas sale, and the leases do not convey carbon sequestration rights. Each lease will expire in 5 years absent oil and gas production or ongoing drilling operations.

These oil and gas leases may not be repurposed for sequestration or other purposes unless an alternate use RUE is issued competitively in accordance with 30 CFR § 585.1007.

So what’s next for these 94 leases, 31% of the entire sale?

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Jamie Dimon, CEO JPMorgan Chase

“In my view, America should have been pumping more oil and gas and it should have been supported,” Dimon told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum at the JPM Techstars conference in London.

“We have a longer-term problem now, which is the world is not producing enough oil and gas to reduce coal, make the transition [to green energy], produce security for people,” he said.

“I would put it in the critical category. This should be treated almost as a matter of war at this point, nothing short of that,” he added.

“This is the chance to get our act together and to solidify the Western, free, democratic, capitalist, free people, free movements, freedom of speech, free religion for the next century,” he continued.

“Because if we don’t get this one right, that kind of chaos you can see around the world for the next 50 years.”

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase,

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Which bid was rejected? BOEM announced that 307 of the 308 high bids were accepted. One bid was rejected on fair market value grounds. The unsuccessful bid is not specified on the Sale 257 web page.

When can we expect a statement from Exxon on their intentions for the 94 blocks they acquired? Those 94 blocks (31% of the entire sale) are the elephant in the room, yet we have heard nothing from the company. Given Exxon’s apparent interest in using these leases for CCS purposes, and the tax credits and Federal funding associated with CCS projects (as per the Infrastructure Bill and Inflation Reduction Act), clarification regarding Exxon’s intentions would seem to be appropriate.

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Pursuant to section 50264(b) of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Pub. L. No. 117-169), Congress has directed BOEM to award leases to the highest valid bidders in Lease Sale 257, which was held on November 17, 2021. Consistent with this direction, BOEM has accepted 307 of the highest valid bids, totaling $189,888,271.

A total of 33 companies participated in the lease sale, generating $191,688,984 in high bids for 308 tracts covering 1.7 million acres in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico. One bid was rejected for not providing the public with fair market value.

BOEM

Bottom line:

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A full day ahead of the deadline! Waiting for an announcement and details.

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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled that BOEM “unreasonably refused to consider possible deficiencies in environmental enforcement” in their Supplemental EIS for Sales 250 and 251. The court found that BOEM did not adequately consider a 2016 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report that was critical of BSEE’s oversight of offshore activities.

More positively, the court chose not to vacate the sales or the EIS:

Moreover, vacatur would be highly disruptive for the lessees. They have paid millions of dollars to obtain their leases and have acted for some four years in reliance on them—including by investing substantial additional sums and by executing contracts with third parties. Moreover, any redo of the lease sales “would be tainted by prior publication of [the] lessees’ proprietary valuation of the leases” following the original sales.

Comments:

  1. How many GAO reports on BSEE or MMS have not been critical of some processes or procedures? None that I can recall.
  2. It’s unreasonable to expect BOEM to consider every GAO or other external criticism of the regulatory program in their EIS’s.
  3. All of the GAO recommendations in the subject report were process related and were closed (implemented) several years ago.
  4. The court exercised good judgement in declining to vacate the sale. Per the decision, the case will be remanded to BOEM for further consideration of the GAO report.

 

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Contrary to some media reports and industry comments, the Inflation Reduction Act does NOT require the Department of the Interior (DOI) to award leases to the high bidder on each Sale 257 tract. The legislation requires DOI to accept the highest valid bid for each tract.

As BOE has previously explained, the 94 carbon sequestration bids were clearly not valid, and leases should not be awarded. These bids accounted for 30.5% of the entire sale in terms of the number of tracts receiving bids. (More on the CCS bids.)

There is also the matter of fair market value. Only 9 of the 214 (non-CCS) tracts received more than one bid and none received more than 2 bids. DOI/BOEM may determine that some of the bids did not pass the fair market value test. Are such bids “valid” under the terms of the IRA legislation? Note that 7 of the 93 high bids submitted at the previous sale (Lease Sale 256, November 2020) were rejected on fair market value grounds. All 7 were single bid tracts.

Lastly, there is the unresolved matter of the decision by Judge Contreras to vacate Sale 257. While the legislation seems to clearly supersede that decision, who knows what might happen next on the litigation front.

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April production increased from March by 72,000 BOPD to 1.763 million BOPD. The increase is associated, at least in part, with Murphy’s King’s Quay field which began producing in early April. 2022 GoM production remains below the levels reached in the first 7 months (pre-Hurricane Ida) of 2021, and is well below BOEM’s forecasted 2022 production rate of 1892 MBOPD. Perhaps BOEM was assuming earlier startup dates for other projects that will begin production later this year or next year. The 2022 YTD dip in production points to the importance of sustained exploration and development.

BOEM’s short-term production forecast is considerably more optimistic than EIA’s. This optimistic forecast, along with unrealistic expectations regarding the “energy transition” are reasons for proposing so few lease sales in the new 5 year leasing program. The logic for this minimalist leasing program seems to be that future production is neither necessary nor desirable. Indeed the program implies that the long-term nature of offshore production is a liability and is justification for limiting OCS oil and gas leasing:

BOEM’s short-term (20-year) production forecast for existing leases shows steady growth from 2022 through 2024 and declining thereafter (see Section 5.2.1). The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

Basing leasing decisions on “future climate pathways” would seem to be a considerable stretch of the Secretary’s authority under the OCS Lands Act and may be inconsistent with the recent SCOTUS decision in West Virginia vs. EPA. A strategic shutdown of the offshore oil and gas program would dramatically increase energy supply and security risks going forward, and should be authorized by Congress.

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