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Some quotes that I found particularly interesting in Dan Yergin’s Forbes Interview:

We don’t have a physical shortage of natural gas in the U.S., we have a shortage of pipelines. It’s very hard to get any new major pipelines done. In fact, it’s somewhere between very hard, and impossible.

Some of the assumptions about how easy things would be [related to the energy transition] are turning out to not have been correct. I think there is some reassessment of ESG [Environmental, Social, and Governance investment] going on, and at the same time, many investors also want good returns. Therefore, they’re looking at the oil and gas sector in a way they weren’t looking at it a year ago.”

With regard to concerns about US government policy panic: “For instance, a ban on oil exports. First of all, if you banned product exports, it would actually send gasoline prices higher…. If limits were put on LNG exports, it would be a terrible shock to Western unity and Europe’s ability to stay the course.”

On Saudi Arabia: I think the old relationship with the U.S. is over. China is the main, critical market for the Kingdom now….The Crown Prince has said that he wants Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund to be the biggest in the world, and it is probably on the way to being that. He sees Saudi Arabia becoming very influential in the world’s economy, not only as an oil producer, but as a financial player.”

“The likelihood that there will be new Iranian oil coming onto the market is increasingly unlikely

Norwegian offshore worker disputes tend to be resolved without major work stoppages, and fortunately that appears to be the case with the latest dispute. This would not have been a good time to take Norway’s 1.8 million BOPD and 11.5 BCFD of gas off the market, even briefly.

NPD photo

Kudos to BSEE’s Gulf of Mexico Region for their timely safety alerts and comprehensive updates on offshore incidents, trends, and compliance issues. Their most recent update is linked below.

For the past 50 years. my main goal for US offshore operations has been a zero fatality year. Sadly, that goal has never been achieved and will not be achieved this year (see slide 15).

Many casualties are associated with activities that are not perceived to be of high risk. The message on slide 22 of Jason’s presentation is thus very important:

Perceived low risk activities can still result in impactful injuries. Continually risk assess the work being undertaken, no matter if it permitted or nonpermitted work.

Know your personal limits and stop before you reach your limit. Pause and ask for help before you are at your limit.

Jason Mathews, BSEE, 6/7/2022

Per Politico:

Several Democrats both in and out of the administration laid out their discontent with the office, led by National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy, over its involvement in other agencies’ work, saying it slowed down several high-profile agenda items.

The Democrats said the office has gotten in the way of agency rulemakings. A Democratic Hill staffer told Zack the office edited and chose the day after Thanksgiving to release last year’s long-awaited Interior Department report on the federal oil and gas leasing program.

More on the leasing report cited in the above quote.

I guess we can assume that the Climate Office is currently reviewing the Proposed 5 Year Leasing Program that the Department of the Interior has promised to release by June 30. Is DOI subordinate to the Climate Office?

SPR stocks are down 29% from the end of 2010 and 19% from the end of 2020. Continued declines of this magnitude would be a major concern. Should a major crisis arise, offshore production takes years to ramp up, especially given that the lease inventory is at historic low levels and exploration has thus been stymied. Shale producers can respond more quickly to market needs, but transportation bottlenecks, and staffing and equipment availability can limit near-term production growth.

As was noted here in April, the inconsistency of drawing heavily on the SPR while constraining leasing in the adjacent offshore waters is striking. Apparently, there is nothing to worry about because neither the Department of the Interior nor the Department of Energy home pages even mention the words oil or gas. This is pretty remarkable given their broad responsibilities for these vital resources, and the crippling effects of shortages and high prices.

SPR locations

This seems to be a good summary video and includes a clip of the FPSO that will be producing the field.

“Our knowledge and expertise in geoscience and petroleum engineering represent advantageous foundation for CCS development, leading us towards our carbon emissions reduction target.” 

PTTEP

Those who closely followed Australia’s Montara Inquiry in 2010 may be less convinced about PTTEP’s expertise. The Montara well suspension program was completely irresponsible. Even though the production casing cement was clearly compromised, PTTEP suspended the well without a single barrier in the well bore. The company was extremely lucky to have avoided a major safety, environmental, and economic disaster. Perhaps they are a very different company now; I certainly hope so.

Montara blowout, Timor Sea

The PTTEP announcement adds to our skepticism about the motives of some CCS proponents. Is CCS prudent public policy? That question is by no means settled and there has been very little opportunity for comment and debate. BOE has raised concerns and there are no doubt many more that have yet to be addressed.

active leases ➡ producible leases ➡ energy production

The future of US offshore energy production is in jeopardy. As is clear in the first chart below, the problem is the precipitous decline in opportunities (l.e. leases), not the will to produce. At 27.3% (6/2022 data), the % of active leases that are producing is near the historic high of 30%. The spin doctors really need to drop the old and tired nonproducing leases excuse.

While not nearly as high as it could be with better lease management, offshore production has held up relatively well thanks to deepwater discoveries that were made years ago and technical innovation that makes projects more cost-effective, safer, and cleaner. Gulf of Mexico production should be relatively stable for several years as production from these projects offsets declines elsewhere. However, in the intermediate and longer term, reserve depletion and the absence of new exploration opportunities ensure a downward production trend.

A full EIS is needed!

Further to the summary from the 2016 EA announcement, it appears that the only Pacific Region well operations over the past 2 years have been for plugging and abandonment purposes. The legal circus continues with or without actual operations.

There have been 24 well stimulation treatments (21 of which involved hydraulic fracturing) on the OCS offshore California between 1982 and 2014, and these were conducted on four of the 23 platforms. Reservoirs on the OCS off Southern California tend to be much more permeable than onshore reservoirs, and are already highly naturally fractured. Therefore, little permeability enhancement has been required for their development. As described in the scenario evaluated in the EA, the future use of Well Stimulation Treatments is expected to continue to be occasional rather than essential to hydrocarbon production from these platforms.

BOEM, 2016