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Archive for the ‘hurricanes’ Category

Per EIA, September Gulf of Mexico production averaged 2 million bopd on the button! New production from Vito and Argos were no doubt contributors, as production reached the 2 million bopd mark for only the third month in the history of the OCS program. The other 2 months were in 2019.

Imagine what US offshore production might be if the OCS oil and gas program was actually managed to succeed!

Also, as the official hurricane season comes to a close today, we are fortunate in that there have been no production shut-ins from tropical storms in 2023.

Vito

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The worst conditions were relatively common by Georges Bank standards. Per the NOAA data buoy (see plots below), the wind speed peaked at 40.8 kts, gusts at 58.3 kts, and wave height at 29.2 ft.

Looking back at my Georges Bank Exploratory Drilling paper (1983), a spring storm in April 1982 generated 105 mph winds and 35 foot swells. I’ll post information on the rig performance issues during those operations at a later date.

Image

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Genesis, which is being decommissioned, has been fully evacuated. BSEE will no doubt have information on all evacuations and shut-ins tomorrow.

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Comments on 2022 oil production:

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“The American people have moved on. The President himself has declared ‘the Pandemic is over.’ Yet, we continue holding fast to an outdated mandate, purging hundreds of dedicated sailors, even though we struggle to meet our recruiting goals. It is now time to take a pause, reevaluate, and assess what this is costing readiness, the taxpayer, and the public perception of how we treat our people,” he wrote in the letter.

Retired Coast Guard Vice Admiral William “Dean” Lee

Meanwhile, a Coast Guard hero during Hurricane Ian is about to be discharged for refusing the vaccine. He is one of 2632 Coast Guard members who refused the shots.

Coast Guard hero Zach Loesch being congratulated by the President

As previously noted, the Coast Guard expelled 7 cadets from the Academy over their Covid vaccination status.

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These dedicated and selfless volunteers are assisting in Florida rescue and recovery missions, and are once again making us proud!

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Some production has already resumed as BSEE reports that 157,706 BOPD were shut-in as of 12:30 pm ET today, down from 190,358 in yesterday’s report.

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190,358 BOPD shut-in as of 12:30 p.m. ET today. Presumably, most of the shut-in production is associated with the major deepwater platforms mentioned in our previous post. Given the projected storm track, these shut-ins should be brief.

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Based on current forecasts, Ian’s impact to Gulf of Mexico production facilities should be minimal. However, BP has shut-in Na Kika and Thunder Horse and Chevron has shut-in Petronius and Blind Faith given their more easterly locations.

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I fully expect feature number 4 to be a TC by Wednesday and Hurricane by Friday as it threatens the NE Caribbean first. Eventual track toward Bahamas SE US in 10-15 day period. Feature in Africa develops, stays way out. 1,2,3 weaker right now

Joe Bastardi Twitter

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