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Archive for the ‘Gulf of Mexico’ Category

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lease sale statistics

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Nice bounce in Texas where 320 rigs are now active, up 12 from last week and up 117 from a year ago. Rig activity in New Mexico, where (unlike Texas) most of the Permian is on Federal land, has been less robust. The number of rigs operating in NM actually dropped by 1 to 98.

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Linked below is an excellent compliance and incident data update by Jason Mathews. COVID-19 statistics are included. Kudos to BSEE’s Gulf of Mexico Region for their timely and comprehensive reviews and safety alerts.The collection, analysis, and timely publication of incident data are critical to safety achievement and continuous improvement.

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This useful SafeOCS report summarizes and itemizes well control equipment failures associated with well operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS in 2020. Of particular note was the absence of any loss of containment (leak of wellbore fluids) events in 2020 or the prior two years.

Unfortunately, there appear to be significant reporting gaps despite the fact that reporting of these data is required by regulation (30 CFR 250.730(c)). The reporting issues are particularly serious for surface systems (surface BOP and associated equipment). Per SafeOCS, surface rig reports were received from less than 50% of active operators and rigs. Reporting for subsea systems (subsea BOP and associated equipment) was much better with 85% of the active rigs represented.

Of further concern with regard to the reporting of surface equipment events, the data indicate only 5.3 events per 1000 hours for surface systems vs. 71.5 for subsea systems. While subsea systems are more complex, the cost of pulling and repairing subsea equipment dictates newer, better maintained equipment. As a result, surface BOPs have historically had higher failure rates than subsea BOPs. The data below are from a presentation to MMS approximately 15 years ago. Both the Sintef and OOC data show higher failure rates for surface BOPs.

The SafeOCS team did a very good job of analyzing the reports and presenting the data. However, the reporting issues need to be investigated and resolved to get maximum value from this very important work.

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Remember that only 5 weeks ago Judge Contreras (DC Federal Court) vacated OCS Lease Sale 257 because  BOEM didn’t analyze the benefits of higher oil and gas prices (as a result of lower US offshore production) in reducing international consumption and GHG emissions. The about that!

Lease Sale 257 wouldn’t have helped get us through this crisis, but would have most definitely reduced our vulnerability to future crises.

473 days since the last US offshore oil and gas lease sale.

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BSEE has posted the slides and presentation video announcing their draft Request For Proposals (RFP) to contract for the decommissioning of facilities on five Gulf of Mexico leases. Phase 1 involves the plugging of 15 wells. Per the presentation, this work would be paid for using “orphan well” funds appropriated in the 2021 Infrastucture bill.

Per BSEE’s online borehole file, the wells in question were drilled by Matagorda Island Gas Operations, Anglo-Suisse Offshore Partners, and Bennu Oil and Gas. Matagorda and Bennu declared bankruptcy and are no longer in business. The status of Anglo-Suisse is not entirely clear, but presumably they are no longer financially accountable.

Looking at BOEM online data, these leases had other owners including two US super-majors. However, the wells identified by BSEE were drilled after these and other financially strong companies had assigned their interest. They are thus not legally accountable, which is presumably why these wells were chosen for the RFP.

The unprecedented use of Federal funds for decommissioning reflects poorly on the offshore industry and Federal lease management practices. The financial risks associated with decommissioning have been apparent for more than 30 years (see the July 1991 Forbes article below). Why have these issues not been effectively addressed? Some thoughts:

  • Operating companies showed little interest in private industry-wide solutions. Rod Pearcy, one of the most respected managers in the history of the Federal offshore program, advocated an industry funded and managed entity to ensure financial assurance and guarantee well and facility decommissioning. This concept never gained traction.
  • Industry factions disagreed strongly on the regulatory approach that the Federal government should take. Simply put, “majors” wanted to limit future liability for leases they assigned. “Independents” wanted the assigning companies to retain liability such that their financial assurance requirements were minimized. These divisions continue to this day and are the main reason financial assurance regulations are so difficult to update.
  • Decommissioning costs vary wildly depending on the particular circumstances, making it difficult to establish the amounts of financial assurance to be required. For example, storm damage typically increases well and structure decommissioning costs by a factor of at least 10. Requiring worst case financial assurance amounts would preclude many assignments and the associated increase in oil and gas recovery.
  • Realistic amounts of bonding and other forms of financial assurance are routinely challenged by lessees and their political representatives.
  • Poor lease assignment and financial management decisions have significantly increased the risk exposure of predecessor lease owners and taxpayers. The troubling case of Platforms Hogan and Houchin, Santa Barbara Channel, demonstrates the implications of questionable lease assignments and the irresponsible use of decommissioning funds.
  • Government funded decommissioning will likely be more expensive and will subject the public to unforeseen costs and future liabilities should the operations not go as planned.
  • The future decommissioning of wind turbines is already a major issue, and measures must be taken to ensure that liability is clearly established and operator funding is assured.

In the past, the regulators, operating companies, and insurers have found ways to ensure that decommissioning costs did not fall on the taxpayer. BSEE continues to be resourceful in that regard. Private solutions should always be the objective. The proposed RFP opens the door to the potential for far greater Federal liabilities down the road, particularly given the uncertainty about predecessor liability in some important cases.

1991 Forbes article

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“The absolute earliest a new Lease Sale 257 could occur is July 2, which is after the expiration of the current five year program,” Interior said in a 28 February court filing (opting not to appeal the DC court decision invalidating the lease sale).

Argus

So, a new lease sale cannot occur until after the five year program expires and no sale may be held. Brilliant, Joseph Heller would be proud. It’s a good thing oil and gas supplies are plentiful and secure, and that prices are cheap.

Remember, the judge’s decision invalidating Sale 257 was that BOEM didn’t analyze the benefits of higher oil and gas prices (as a result of lower offshore production) in reducing international consumption and GHG emissions.

US offshore leasing – time for action

Previous posts on Sale 257.

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BP, Equinor, and Shell are exiting Russia, but Exxon’s response seems to be something less. Per Upstream:

US supermajor ExxonMobil is scaling back its operations on its flagship offshore development project in Russia’s Sakhalin Island region in response to the fallout from the crisis in Ukraine, according to the Sakhalin Online news website.

A consortium source cited by the Russian website claimed that foreign managers have been told to leave the project for an initial period of one month.

Upstream

Exxon accepted the political risks associated with lucrative Russian production, and they now have a massive moral and public relations dilemma. Will they try to wait this crisis out or take more permanent actions?

It would be nice to see Exxon return to the Gulf of Mexico where they haven’t drilled a well since 2019. Currently, Exxon’s primary interest in the Gulf is for carbon sequestration purposes. Perhaps they can focus more on the Gulf’s still promising production potential and less on its potential as a disposal site.

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Since well before the Putin crisis, this independent blog has been expressing concerns about sustaining US offshore oil and gas production without new leases and increased exploration (more here). Now that concerns about domestic production and energy security are heightened (understatement of the year!), let’s review where the leasing program stands:

  • 466 days have elapsed since the last oil and gas lease sale (Nov. 19, 2020), with no future sales in sight.
  • There had been 182 sales in the previous 66 years of the US offshore oil and gas program, an average of 2.76 per year. Never before (since 1953) has a year transpired without a lease sale.
  • Currently, there are only 2016 active US OCS leases and 506 producing leases, the fewest in at least 40 years (recent history charted below).
  • Despite favorable geology beneath the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and advanced exploration and well completion technology, US offshore oil production (1.713 million bopd per the latest EIA data – Dec. 2021) is down 16% from the August 2019 peak of 2.044 million BOPD. Gulf oil production is thus the lowest since 2018 (except during hurricane shutdowns).
  • New projects and higher ultimate recoveries from producing reservoirs could increase total offshore production by 10-20% over the next few years, but sharp declines will follow without new leases and increased exploration.

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