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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

100+ tcf and the discoveries keep coming. Here’s the latest:

London, 7 November 2022 – Energean plc is pleased to announce that i) the Zeus 01 exploration well has made a commercial gas discovery of 13 bcm ii) contingent resources at Athena have been upgraded following post-well analysis; and iii) the Stena IceMax drilling rig has moved to block 23 to drill the Hercules structure, the final well in Energean’s 2022 drilling campaign.

Will the gas/power transmission systems follow?

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Netherlands climate activist Niklas Hohne succinctly summarizes the “end of fossil fuels” strategy (first quote) that the US Department of the Interior seems intent on implementing in the proposed 5 Year OCS Leasing Plan (second quote). What is DOI’s legislative authority for phasing out offshore oil and gas production? It’s certainly not the OCS Lands Act which calls for the expeditious and orderly development of OCS resources. Neither the EIA nor any other reputable forecaster believes we can even reduce, let alone eliminate, oil and gas consumption in the next 20-30 years.

“The plan was not to build any new infrastructure, because everything new you build has to run for 20 or 30 years to pencil out, long past the point we want to be off fossil fuels,” Hohne said. 

Niklas Hohne, founder of the New Climate Institute (Netherlands) to the Washington Post

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

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Further, per the ONRR data:

Oil-Well Gas
Produced
(BCF)
Gas-Well Gas
Produced
(BCF)
total gas
produced
(BCF)
total gas flared
or vented
(BCF)
% flared
or vented
2015588.4719.41307.810.30.8
2016631.7589.11220.89.70.8
2017637.3441.21078.59.90.9
2018623.1370.1993.210.61.1
2019670.2364.11034.311.71.1
2020581.4224.9806.310.41.3
2021582.2209.5791.78.21

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Gulf of Mexico flaring and venting data have been sorted for the years 2015-2021. The reporting of these data is mandatory and strictly enforced, so these ONRR numbers should be accurate.

Biggest surprise: The biggest surprise is that there were no big surprises in the data. The % of gas flared and vented were generally consistent with expectations based on familiarity with historical data.

Biggest disappointment: the continued sharp decline in nonassociated (gas-well) gas production. GoM gas well gas production exceeded 4 tcf annually in the 1990s and was still above one tcf ten years ago. Since then, GWG production has declined by 80%. Nonassociated offshore natural gas has important environmental advantages, so the decline in production should be a major concern to policy makers

Encouraging sign: The % of oil-well gas vented has ticked down over the past 2 years which is encouraging from a GHG standpoint. This is presumably because most associated gas is produced on modern deepwater facilities equipped with flare booms. An astute politician would be rushing to take credit for this achievement.😀

Unfavorable ratio: Although the volumes are low (<1 Bcf combined in 2021), more gas-well gas was vented each year than flared. This is presumably because older shelf facilities without flare booms still produce much of the natural gas.

Abbreviations:

  • ONRR: Office of Natural Resources Revenue
  • GoM: Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico
  • OWGP: oil-well gas production
  • GWGP: gas-well gas production
  • OWGF: oil-well gas flared
  • OWGV: oil-well gas vented
  • GWGF: gas-well gas flared
  • GWGV: gas-well gas vented

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BOEM’s 2022 production forecast, which was just published in July, was 1.9 million BOPD, and will likely be a full 10% too high for the year. One has to assume that the staff work was completed well before the document was actually published. Of greater concern, BOEM’s longer term production forecast, along with unrealistic expectations for the “transition,” were used to justify a subminimal 5 year leasing plan with the fewest sales in history.

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For the first time since May 18, 1984, when the SPR was being filled, the reserve has fallen below 400 million barrels.

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In their filing with the Massachusetts Dept. of Public utilities, Commonwealth Wind has requested a one month suspension in the review of the power purchase agreements:

In particular, this suspension would allow the parties to examine the effect of unprecedented commodity price increases, interest rate hikes, and supply shortages on the overall viability of Commonwealth Wind’s offshore wind generation project that is the subject of the PPAs (the “Project”), including whether it remains economic and whether it can be financed under the current terms of the PPAs. A one-month suspension would also enable the parties to consider potential approaches to restore the Project’s viability – including cost saving measures, tax incentives under the newly enacted Inflation Reduction Act, an increase in the PPA prices, and improvements to Project efficiencies – and to determine whether additional time, beyond the period requested in this Motion, is needed to resolve the appropriate path forward or provide a complete record.

At a minimum, the expected commercial operation date, already more than 5 years into the future (2028), would seem to be threatened.

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More Halloween horror reported by our friends in Wyoming:

The supply of diesel in the United States has dropped to its lowest seasonal level since 1945, according to federal data, meaning there’s less than a month of the fuel stockpiled in the country. 

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As of 10/14/2022, the SPR inventory was 405.1 million barrels.

President Biden will announce on Wednesday that he is releasing 15 million more barrels of fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a move aimed at easing gas prices three weeks before voters anxious over rising costs head to the polls as Democrats have been battered by GOP attacks on the economy.

WP

One objective is to support domestic drillers😀😀😀

The administration is also expected to release further details on timing for refilling the stockpile, reflecting its desire to combat rising pump prices while also supporting domestic drillers with future demand for their oil, they said.

Reuters

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