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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

Comments from Terje Aasland, Norwegian Minister of Oil and Energy, after a strong licensing round during which 26 applications were received:

We need exploration and new discoveries to maintain the production of oil and gas over time, which is important both for Norway and Europe. The applications in TFO 2022 show very good interest among the companies active on the Norwegian continental shelf in looking for new petroleum resources. This is very gratifying, says Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland (Ap)

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Per legislation signed by the President on 8/16/2022, Sale 257 oil and gas leases are to be issued this week. Below is a list of the high bidders. (The carbon sequestration bids are not believed to be valid and are not included in this list.) Note the number of smaller and relatively unknown companies that participated in the sale. These smaller operators and investment companies add significantly to the vitality of the OCS program. BOE will comment on some of these companies in future posts.

Company No. of high bids
Hess2
Chevron34
Shell20
Walter2
W&T2
Houston Energy5
LLOG6
Anadarko30
BHP8
Arena11
bp46
Murphy3
Red Willow5
Equinor1
Focus Exploration7
Repsol5
Byron1
EnVen1
CSL Expl1
Talos10
Kosmos1
Beacon4
Blackcomb Energy1
Cantium3
Otto Energy1
Foster & Assoc.1
Juneau Oil and Gas5
DG Exploration 14
QuarterNorth1

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Despite continuous legal and policy headwinds, and the absence of some historically important US companies, technological innovation is sustaining US offshore production at about 1.7 to 1.8 million BOPD. BOE will continue to monitor drilling, production, and safety performance and draw attention to the leading companies.

Think about where we would be today without the shale revolution and onshore production on private lands. Grateful!

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bp ad showing workers on their Na Kika floating production platform in the Gulf of Mexico (6340′ water depth)

Is bp apologizing for the pictured workers and platform? With the demand for oil and gas expected to increase through 2050, and worldwide concerns about energy supply and security, ads like this make neither good business nor good social sense.

Moving away from oil and gas and becoming a “very different” company in the 2030’s won’t make bp the “leading energy company in the world.” On the contrary, a “very different” bp will likely be less influential, less profitable, and more dependent on government mandates and subsidies.

Contrary to the ad (and to the company’s credit), bp seems committed to Gulf of Mexico production well beyond the 2030’s. They are the number 2 oil producer in the Gulf (behind Shell), continue to drill exploration and development wells, and were the most active participant at Lease Sale 257. Bp was the high bidder on 46 tracts, 12 more than no. 2 Chevron. The Department of the Interior has been legislatively directed to award Sale 257 leases by 9/15/2022, but has yet to comment publicly on the matter.

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The reckless depletion of an important strategic resource continues:

  • Largest-ever one year SPR decline – 179 million bbls or 28.8% (9/3/2021 to 9/2/2022)
  • 39.2% decline since 2010
  • 74 consecutive weeks of decline – 4/9/2021 to 9/2/2022
  • 58 million bbls below the strategically important 500 million barrel threshold which was first breached (on the downside) on 6/24/2022
  • Lowest inventory since 11/23/1984
Above numbers are end of year volumes except for 2022 which is as of 9/2

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Link to the press release.

To the extent that these numbers are honored and adhered to, attached is the OPEC+ production table (1000’s of BOPD). Note that Russia and Saudi Arabia have identical quotas – 11,004,000 BOPD.

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GoM oil production for June increased (see chart below) with King’s Quay and Spruance contributing to the uptick. Other anticipated 2022 startups are not yet producing.

The EIA production forecast for 2022 is proving to be pretty accurate. Kudos to them. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast of 1.9 million bopd is not achievable and concerns about the intermediate and longer term persist. Unfortunately, BOEM’s highly optimistic forecast for 2022 and beyond, along with unrealistic expectations regarding the energy transition, have significant policy implications. This stunning quote from the 5 year leasing plan explains why so few lease sales were proposed:

BOEM’s short-term (20-year) production forecast for existing leases shows steady growth from 2022 through 2024 and declining thereafter (see Section 5.2.1). The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

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OEUK statement

It’s disappointing that this statement was even necessary. Under the circumstances, the need for new UK offshore licenses would seem to be obvious and undeniable.

“The European energy sector right now is cracking at the seams. Without the contribution of UK oil and gas resources, that crack would be a gaping hole.” 

Mike Tholen, OEUK

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Per legislation signed by the President on Aug. 16, 2022:

(b) LEASE SALE 257 REINSTATEMENT.—
(1) ACCEPTANCE OF BIDS.—Not later 30 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall, without modification or delay
(A) accept the highest valid bid for each tract or bidding unit of Lease Sale 257 for which a valid bid was received on November 17, 2021; and
(B) provide the appropriate lease form to the winning bidder to execute and return.

The Department of the Interior has been silent on their implementation of this provision. We are particularly interested in:

  1. how the 94 carbon sequestration bids will be handled
  2. whether any bids will be rejected on fair market value grounds

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The SPR withdrawals are scheduled to end just prior to the mid-term elections. What happens if oil markets tighten further, perhaps with OPEC assistance?

Remember that the SPR was intended to diminish the vulnerability of the United States to the effects of a severe energy supply interruption!

Updated SPR “milestones”

  • Largest-ever one year decline – 168.2 million bbl or 24.4% (8/13/2020 to 8/19/2022)
  • 37.7% decline since 2010
  • 72 consecutive weeks of decline – 4/9/2021 to 8/19/2022
  • 47 million bbls below the important 500 million barrel threshold which had never before been breached on the downside
  • Lowest inventory since 1/11/1985
Above numbers are end of year volumes except for 2022 which is as of 8/19

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