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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

As a result of the order issued by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit on Nov. 14, 2023, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has scheduled Lease Sale 261 for Dec. 20, 2023.

The Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale was originally scheduled for Sept. 27, 2023, and later scheduled for Nov. 8, 2023, in response to judicial orders.

Pursuant to direction from the Court, BOEM will include lease blocks that were previously excluded due to concerns regarding potential impacts to the Rice’s whale population in the Gulf of Mexico. BOEM will also remove portions of a related stipulation meant to address those potential impacts from the lease terms for any leases that may result from Lease Sale 261.

A Final Notice of Sale will be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 20, 2023, and will be available for public inspection on Nov. 17, 2023. 

BOEM will live stream the opening of bids at 9 am CDT on Dec. 20, 2023. All terms and conditions of the lease sale are listed in the FNOS. For more information, go to: www.boem.gov/sale-261.  

BOEM

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The sale could be held sooner. However, since BOEM asked for 37 days, I’m assuming that the sale will be on December 21.

In the 70 year history of the oil and gas leasing program, this will be the sale date that is closest to Christmas. Yet another major milestone for the offshore program! 😀

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Order is pasted below and attached.

IT IS ORDERED and ADJUDGED that the Intervenors’ appeal is DISMISSED. As for BOEM’s limited appeal as to the timing of the sale, we hereby AMEND the district court’s preliminary injunction only to the extent that the deadline for conducting Lease Sale 261 shall now be thirtyseven days from the date of the issuance of the mandate in this appeal.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that each party bear its own costs on appeal.

Background information and related posts.

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Each annual licensing round will only take place if key tests are met that support the transition to net zero. The first test is that the UK must be projected to import more oil and gas from other countries than it produces at home. 

The second is that the carbon emissions associated with the production of UK gas are lower than the equivalent emissions from imported liquefied natural gas. 

If both these tests are met, the NSTA will be required to invite applications for new licences annually.

GOV.UK

The “key tests” would seem to ensure annual licensing rounds for the foreseeable future. The charts below are from UK EiTi. The first chart illustrates the sharp decline in UK production over the past 20 years. The second and third charts illustrate the large projected gaps between supply and demand, particularly for natural gas.

In 2050, total production of oil and gas is estimated at ~10 million tonnes of oil equivalent. The projected 2050 demand is estimated at ~35 tonnes. For domestic production to exceed imports over the next 20-30 years, resource licensing and field development would have to be very successful and efficient.

Projections of UK Gas Demand and Production
Projections of UK Gas Demand and Production

With regard to the second test, carbon emissions from the production of UK gas should maintain their advantage over imported LNG given the energy required to liquefy and transport that gas.

It would have perhaps been more transparent to simply stipulate annual licensing rounds, but that would probably not have been politically acceptable.

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From the Amsterdam News:

Encouraged by the Guyana Suriname finds, several other regional bloc member nations, including Barbados and Jamaica, have been ramping up efforts to attract companies to explore offshore acreages. The most determined of them seems to be Grenada, which is just north of oil and gas producers Trinidad and Venezuela.”

“Officials there say they are preparing to put out bids to attract some of the world’s largest exploration companies, but the 14-month new administration has said the previous government secreted away all the documents and data obtained from a 2018 exploration campaign by a little-known Russian firm, the Global Petroleum Group (GPG).”

The group had told the previous administration that it had found commercial quantities of oil and gas in a well labeled Nutmeg 2, in about 400 feet of water, and that there were other promising prospects right nearby. But as the current Dickon Mitchell government gets ready to assess the island’s prospects, it has said there is nothing to work with.”

Grenada will no doubt be more careful about whom they issue future exploration licenses to and how they manage the data.

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In light of the 5th Circuit’s order, holding the sale on 11/8 would have been messy for all sides in the Rice’s whale dispute. Seemingly, the only option for holding the sale prior to the Court’s decision on the injunction would have been the following:

  • Allow, but not accept, bids on the tracts in the Rice’s whale expanded area.
  • Add the Rice’s whale stipulations while providing notice that they might subsequently be removed.

Because the RIce’s whale stipulations would affect the value of all deepwater leases, bidders would be rolling the dice on the outcome of the case.

Also, absent legislative action, there will be no lease sale in 2024. This adds to the importance of Sale 261, and making sure the terms are understood.

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Deputy Secretary of the Interior Tommy Beaudreau was “disrupted” (perhaps a euphemism for the thuggish behavior demonstrated in the video clip below) by climate ultras in New York on Sept. 21. On Oct. 4, Mr. Beaudreau announced that he would be leaving the Dept. of the Interior.

The official announcement provides no reasons for his departure. By all accounts, Beaudreau was highly regarded by career employees in the Department. Was he troubled by his experience in NYC and the absence of a response from DOI? Was it difficult being a lone advocate for a more balanced energy policy?

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NJ Governor Murphy, an offshore wind promoter, is not pleased:

“Today’s decision by Orsted to abandon its commitments to New Jersey is outrageous and calls into question the company’s credibility and competence,” the Democratic governor said. “As recently as several weeks ago, the company made public statements regarding the viability and progress of the Ocean Wind I project.”

6ABC NJ

Perhaps the Governor’s credibility and competence is also taking a hit, as is staking the State’s energy future on highly uncertain, intermittent, and facility-intensive power systems. .

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The North Sea Transition Authority (perhaps the transition is a bit more complicated than changing the name of the licensing agency) has announced the awarding of 27 new oil and gas licenses in the UK sector of the North Sea. Summary bullets:

  • Quicker-to-production areas chosen to aid UK energy security
  • First to be awarded from 115 applications – the highest number since 2016/17 29th Licensing Round (see map below)
  • More blocks will be offered subject to additional environmental checks

These licences are in the Central and Northern North Sea, and West of Shetland. There are currently 284 offshore fields in production in the UK North Sea and an estimated 5.25 billion boe in total projected production to 2050. 

CGG map showing applications

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I take it that since the 5th Circuit stayed both the 9/21 and 9/25 orders, the mandate to hold the sale by 11/8 is also stayed. Ergo, it is assumed that the sale will be delayed pending a decision on the merits of the injunction. Oral arguments are scheduled for 11/13.

If the 5th Circuit’s decision facilitates timely resolution of the Rice’s whale deletions and stipulations, delaying the sale is probably the best outcome. Otherwise, the level of uncertainty would be unacceptable for many bidders.

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